scholarly journals Entry, Variable Markups, and Business Cycles

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (077) ◽  
pp. 1-67
Author(s):  
William L. Gamber ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
Firm Dynamics ◽  
Large Firms ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Elasticity Of Demand ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
Input Use ◽  
Variable Markups ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Relationship

The creation of new businesses declines in recessions. In this paper, I study the effects of pro-cyclical business formation on aggregate employment in a general equilibrium model of firm dynamics. The key features of the model are that the elasticity of demand faced by firms falls with their market share and that adjustment costs slow the reallocation of employment between firms. In response to a decline in entry, incumbent firms' market shares increase, their elasticity of demand falls, and they increase their markups and reduce employment. To quantify the model, I study the relationship between variable input use and revenue in panel data on large firms. Viewed through the lens of my model, my estimates imply that for large firms, the within-firm elasticity of the markup to relative sales is 25 percent. I use the calibrated model to study shocks to entry, finding that a fall in entry can lead to a significant contraction in employment. A shock to entry that replicates the decline in the number of businesses during the Great Recession generates a prolonged 2.5 percent fall in employment in the model. Finally, I show that the declining correlation between revenue and variable input use over the past 30 years implies that the effect of entry on the business cycle has become stronger over time.

Profitability and Financial Leverage: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davidson Heath ◽  
Giorgo Sertsios
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Market Power ◽  
Treatment Period ◽  
Small Firms ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
Large Firms ◽  
Financial Leverage ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between profitability and leverage is controversial in the capital structure literature. We revisit this relation in light of a novel quasi-natural experiment that increases market power for a subset of firms. We find that treated firms increase their profitability throughout the treatment period. However, they only transiently reduce financial leverage, gradually reverting to their preshock level. Firms respond differently according to size with large firms gradually adjusting their leverage toward a new target and small firms reducing it. The patterns are broadly consistent with dynamic trade-off models with both fixed and variable adjustment costs. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance.

CAN STATISTICAL PHYSICS CONTRIBUTE TO THE SCIENCE OF ECONOMICS?

Fractals ◽  
1996 ◽  
Vol 04 (03) ◽  
pp. 415-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
MICHAEL H. R. STANLEY ◽  
LUÍS A. N. AMARAL ◽  
SERGEY V. BULDYREV ◽  
SHLOMO HAVLIN ◽  
HEIKO LESCHHORN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Firm Size ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Statistical Physics ◽  
Firm Growth ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Firm Dynamics ◽  
Scaling Theory ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Large Firms ◽  
The Relationship

In recent years, a breakthrough in statistical physics has occurred. Simply put, statistical physicists have determined that physical systems which consist of a large number of interacting particles obey universal laws that are independent of the microscopic details. This progress was mainly due to the development of scaling theory. Since economic systems also consist of a large number of interacting units, it is plausible that scaling theory can be applied to economics. To test this possibility we study the dynamics of firm size. This may help to build a more complete characterization of the nature and processes behind firm growth. To date, the study of firm dynamics has primarily focused on whether small firms on average have higher growth rates than large firms. To a lesser extent, attention has been placed on the relationship between firm size and variation in growth rate. Our research goes beyond these questions by looking at the relationship between numerous firm characteristics and the entire distribution of growth rates. Thus, it may provide a better understanding of the mechanisms behind firm dynamics. In contrast to previous studies, this research analyzes data over many time scales, instead of just a single time interval. From a scientific standpoint, this work could be useful because it will affect the formulation of firm modeling—one of the basic building blocks of all economic analysis. In addition, this work will have practical applications. For example, there are Federal policies that are designed to encourage small businesses. While such policies might be justified on grounds other than their contribution to growth, any systematic difference in the growth rates of small and large firms might be relevant for evaluating such policies. Also, there has traditionally been a concern that an excessive amount of economic activity might become concentrated in a small number of firms. A more detailed understanding of the firm growth process will provide evidence for whether such concerns have any scientific foundation.

scholarly journals Small and Large Firms over the Business Cycle

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (11) ◽  
pp. 3549-3601
Author(s):  
Nicolas Crouzet ◽  
Neil R. Mehrotra
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Alternative Mechanism ◽  
Large Firms ◽  
Aggregate Fluctuations ◽  
Financial Strength ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Relationship

This paper uses new confidential Census data to revisit the relationship between firm size, cyclicality, and financial frictions. First, we find that large firms (the top 1 percent by size) are less cyclically sensitive than the rest. Second, high and rising concentration implies that the higher cyclicality of the bottom 99 percent of firms only has a modest impact on aggregate fluctuations. Third, differences in cyclicality are not simply explained by financing, and in fact appear largely unrelated to proxies for financial strength. We instead provide evidence for an alternative mechanism based on the industry scope of the very largest firms. (JEL D22, E32, G32, L25)

scholarly journals Two worlds apart? Export demand shocks and domestic sales

2019 ◽  
Vol 156 (2) ◽  
pp. 313-342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aksel Erbahar
Keyword(s):  
Scale Effects ◽  
Firm Dynamics ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Production Factors ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Product Sales ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This paper, using a rich dataset on Turkish firms for the 2005–2014 period, analyzes the relationship between firm-product sales in different markets to identify the channels that link exports and domestic sales. First, I use an instrumental variables strategy and establish that an exogenous 10% rise in exports increases a firm’s domestic sales by 2.6% on average. Second, I do an analogous exercise at the firm-product level, and find coefficients that are almost twice as large, hinting to the importance of product-specific scale effects. Moreover, I propose a novel approach to isolate the production versus non-production factors that influence firm dynamics by focusing on non-produced (or carry-along trade, CAT) exports. I find that CAT exports also affect domestic sales positively, suggesting that spillovers at the firm level such as the easing of liquidity constraints play a role. In the process, I reveal that export demand shocks influence firms’ expansion in terms of employment, wages, and investment. Finally, my quantification exercise indicates that export demand shocks explain about 1.4% of the annual variation in Turkish domestic sales on average. This figure, which shows heterogeneities at the sector level, rises to 4.6% during the Great Recession in 2009, when demand in Turkey’s key export partners collapsed.

Middle and Below Living Standards: What Can We Learn from Beyond Income Measures of Economic Well-being?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marii Paskov ◽  
Joan E. Madia ◽  
Tim Goedemé
Keyword(s):  
Well Being ◽  
Material Deprivation ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
Household Level ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Household Incomes ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Economic Well Being

This chapter complements the income-based measures of living standards on which earlier chapters have focused by incorporating non-income dimensions of economic well-being into its analysis, including indicators of material deprivation, economic burdens, and financial stress. It analyses how working-age households around and below the middle of the income distribution fared in European countries in the years before, during, and after the Great Recession. Harmonized household-level data across the members of the EU are analysed to see whether the evolution of these various non-income measures present a similar or different picture to household incomes over time. To probe what lies behind the patterns this reveals, four quite different countries are then examined in greater depth. Finally, the chapter also explores the relationship between material deprivation for households around and below the middle and overall income inequality.

The Relationship Between Gender and Promotion Over the Business Cycle: Does Firm Size Matter?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Saridakis ◽  
Priscila Ferreira ◽  
Anne‐Marie Mohammed ◽  
Susan Marlow
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Size Matter ◽  
The Relationship

scholarly journals Autonomes Fahren statt Stop and Go: Vorschläge zur effektiven Gestaltung der deutschen Kurzarbeit

2019 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
pp. 252-260
Author(s):  
Almut Balleer ◽  
Britta Gehrke ◽  
Brigitte Hochmuth ◽  
Christian Merkl
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Timely Manner ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Stop And Go ◽  
Time Work ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Short Time

Abstract This article argues that short-time work stabilized employment in Germany substantially during the Great Recession in 2008/09. The labor market instrument acted in timely manner, as it was used in a rule-based fashion. In addition, discretionary extensions were effective due to their interaction with the business cycle. To ensure that short-time work will be effective in the future, this article proposes an automatic facilitation of the access to short-time work in severe recessions. This reduces the likelihood of a too extensive use at the wrong point in time as well as structural instead of cyclical interventions.

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