A Probabilistic Model of Aquifer Susceptibility to Earthquake-Induced Groundwater-Level Changes

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (3) ◽  
pp. 1046-1063 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konrad C. Weaver ◽  
R. Arnold ◽  
C. Holden ◽  
J. Townend ◽  
S. C. Cox
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Monitoring Wells ◽  
Monitoring Well ◽  
Water Level Changes ◽  
Groundwater Level Changes

ABSTRACT A probabilistic model for earthquake-induced persistent groundwater-level response as a function of peak ground velocity (PGV) has been constructed using a catalog of monitoring well observations spanning multiple earthquakes. The regional-scale, multi-site, multi-earthquake investigation addresses the occurrence and absence of hydraulic responses to large earthquakes spanning almost a decade of seismic shaking. Persistent groundwater-level changes, or absences of change, have been quantified in 495 monitoring wells in response to one or more of 11 recent New Zealand earthquakes larger than Mw 5.4 that occurred between 2008 and 2017. A binary logistic regression model with random effects has been applied to the dataset using three predictors: earthquake shaking (PGV), degree of hydrogeological confinement (monitoring well depth), and rock strength (site-average shear-wave velocity). Random effects were included as a partial proxy for variations in monitoring wells’ susceptibilities to earthquake-induced persistent water-level changes. Marginal probabilities have been calculated as a function of PGV and related to modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) levels using a New Zealand-specific MMI–PGV relationship that enables the likelihood of persistent water-level changes to be expressed for MMIs of II–VIII. This study capitalizes on one of the largest catalogs of earthquake hydrological observations compiled worldwide and is the first attempt at incorporating seismic and hydrogeological factors in a common probabilistic description of earthquake-induced groundwater-level changes. This modeling framework provides a more generalizable approach to quantifying responses than alternative metrics based on epicentral distance, magnitude, and seismic energy density. It has potential to enable better comparison of international studies and to inform practitioners making engineering or investment decisions to mitigate risk and increase the resilience of water-supply infrastructure.

scholarly journals Seismological and Hydrogeological Controls on New Zealand-Wide Groundwater Level Changes Induced by the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
KC Weaver ◽  
SC Cox ◽  
John Townend ◽  
H Rutter ◽  
IJ Hamling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Permeability Enhancement ◽  
Water Level Changes ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Kaikoura Earthquake ◽  
Directivity Effects ◽  
Groundwater Level Changes

© 2019 K. C. Weaver et al. The 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake induced groundwater level changes throughout New Zealand. Water level changes were recorded at 433 sites in compositionally diverse, young, shallow aquifers, at distances of between 4 and 850 km from the earthquake epicentre. Water level changes are inconsistent with static stress changes but do correlate with peak ground acceleration (PGA). At PGAs exceeding 2 m/s2, water level changes were predominantly persistent increases. At lower PGAs, there were approximately equal numbers of persistent water level increases and decreases. Shear-induced consolidation is interpreted to be the predominant mechanism causing groundwater changes at accelerations exceeding 2 m/s2, whereas permeability enhancement is interpreted to predominate at lower levels of ground acceleration. Water level changes occur more frequently north of the epicentre, as a result of the fault's northward rupture and resulting directivity effects. Local hydrogeological conditions also contributed to the observed responses, with larger water level changes occurring in deeper wells and in well-consolidated rocks at equivalent PGA levels.

scholarly journals Earthquake-induced hydrogeological changes in New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Konrad Cedd Weaver
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Epicentral Distance ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Seismic Energy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Monitoring Wells ◽  
Water Level Changes ◽  
Behaviour Changes

<p>Earthquakes redistribute fluids and change associated flow paths in the subsurface. Earthquake hydrology is an evolving discipline that studies such phenomena, providing novel information on crustal processes, natural hazards and water resources. This thesis uses the internationally significant New Zealand "hydroseismicity" dataset, in a regional-scale multi-site multi-earthquake study which includes the occurrence and the absence of responses, spanning a decade. Earthquake-induced groundwater level and tidal behaviour changes were examined in a range of aquifers, rock types and hydrogeological settings. Monitoring wells were within one (near-field) to several (intermediate- field) ruptured fault lengths of a variety of earthquakes that had a range of shaking intensities. This thesis presents three studies on the seismic and hydrogeological controls on earthquake-induced groundwater level changes.  Water level changes were recorded New Zealand-wide within compositionally diverse, young shallow aquifers, in 433 monitoring wells at distances between 4 and 850 km from the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake epicentre. Water level changes are inconsistent with static stress changes, but do correlate with peak ground acceleration (PGA). At PGAs exceeding ~2 m/s2, water level changes predominantly increased persistently, which may have resulted from shear-induced consolidation. At lower PGAs there were approximately equal numbers of persistent water level increases and decreases, which are thought to have resulted from permeability enhancement. Water level changes also occurred more frequently north of the epicentre, due to the northward directivity of the Kaikoura earthquake rupture. Local hydrogeological conditions also contributed to the observed responses, with larger water level changes occurring in deeper wells and in well-consolidated rocks at equivalent PGA levels.  Earthquakes have previously been inferred to induce hydrological changes in aquifers on the basis of changes to well tidal behaviour and water level, but the relationship between these changes have been unclear. Earthquake-induced changes to tidal behaviour and groundwater levels were quantified in 161 monitoring wells screened in gravel aquifers in Canterbury, New Zealand. In the near-field of the Canterbury earthquake sequence of 2010 and 2011, permeability reduction detected by tidal behaviour changes and increased water levels supports the hypothesis of shear-induced consolidation. Water level changes that occurred with no change in tidal behaviour re-equilibrated at a new post-seismic level within ~50 minutes possibly due to high permeability, good well-aquifer coupling, and/or small permeability changes in the local aquifer. Water level changes that occurred with tidal behaviour changes took from ~240 minutes to ~10 days to re-equilibrate, thought to represent permeability changes on a larger scale. Recent studies commonly utilise a general metric for earthquake-induced hydrological responses based on epicentral distance, earthquake magnitude and seismic energy density. A logistic regression model with random effects was applied to a dataset of binary responses of 495 monitoring well water levels to 11 Mw 5.4 or larger earthquakes. Within the model, earthquake shaking (represented by peak ground velocity), degree of confinement (depth) and rock strength (site average shear wave velocity in the shallow subsurface) were incorporated. For practical applications, the probabilistic framework was converted into the Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity scale. The model shows that water level changes are unlikely below MM intensity VI. At an MM intensity VII, water level changes are about as likely as not to very likely. At MM intensity VIII, the likelihood rises to very likely to virtually certain. This study was the first attempt we are aware of worldwide at incorporating both seismic and hydrogeological factors into a probabilistic framework for earthquake-induced groundwater level changes. The framework is a novel and more universal approach in quantifying responses than previous metrics using epicentral distance, magnitude and seismic energy density. It has potential to enable better comparison of international studies and inform practitioners making decisions around investment to mitigate risk to, and to increase the resilience of, water supply infrastructure.</p>

scholarly journals Earthquake-induced hydrogeological changes in New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Konrad Cedd Weaver
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Epicentral Distance ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Seismic Energy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Monitoring Wells ◽  
Water Level Changes ◽  
Behaviour Changes

<p>Earthquakes redistribute fluids and change associated flow paths in the subsurface. Earthquake hydrology is an evolving discipline that studies such phenomena, providing novel information on crustal processes, natural hazards and water resources. This thesis uses the internationally significant New Zealand "hydroseismicity" dataset, in a regional-scale multi-site multi-earthquake study which includes the occurrence and the absence of responses, spanning a decade. Earthquake-induced groundwater level and tidal behaviour changes were examined in a range of aquifers, rock types and hydrogeological settings. Monitoring wells were within one (near-field) to several (intermediate- field) ruptured fault lengths of a variety of earthquakes that had a range of shaking intensities. This thesis presents three studies on the seismic and hydrogeological controls on earthquake-induced groundwater level changes.  Water level changes were recorded New Zealand-wide within compositionally diverse, young shallow aquifers, in 433 monitoring wells at distances between 4 and 850 km from the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake epicentre. Water level changes are inconsistent with static stress changes, but do correlate with peak ground acceleration (PGA). At PGAs exceeding ~2 m/s2, water level changes predominantly increased persistently, which may have resulted from shear-induced consolidation. At lower PGAs there were approximately equal numbers of persistent water level increases and decreases, which are thought to have resulted from permeability enhancement. Water level changes also occurred more frequently north of the epicentre, due to the northward directivity of the Kaikoura earthquake rupture. Local hydrogeological conditions also contributed to the observed responses, with larger water level changes occurring in deeper wells and in well-consolidated rocks at equivalent PGA levels.  Earthquakes have previously been inferred to induce hydrological changes in aquifers on the basis of changes to well tidal behaviour and water level, but the relationship between these changes have been unclear. Earthquake-induced changes to tidal behaviour and groundwater levels were quantified in 161 monitoring wells screened in gravel aquifers in Canterbury, New Zealand. In the near-field of the Canterbury earthquake sequence of 2010 and 2011, permeability reduction detected by tidal behaviour changes and increased water levels supports the hypothesis of shear-induced consolidation. Water level changes that occurred with no change in tidal behaviour re-equilibrated at a new post-seismic level within ~50 minutes possibly due to high permeability, good well-aquifer coupling, and/or small permeability changes in the local aquifer. Water level changes that occurred with tidal behaviour changes took from ~240 minutes to ~10 days to re-equilibrate, thought to represent permeability changes on a larger scale. Recent studies commonly utilise a general metric for earthquake-induced hydrological responses based on epicentral distance, earthquake magnitude and seismic energy density. A logistic regression model with random effects was applied to a dataset of binary responses of 495 monitoring well water levels to 11 Mw 5.4 or larger earthquakes. Within the model, earthquake shaking (represented by peak ground velocity), degree of confinement (depth) and rock strength (site average shear wave velocity in the shallow subsurface) were incorporated. For practical applications, the probabilistic framework was converted into the Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity scale. The model shows that water level changes are unlikely below MM intensity VI. At an MM intensity VII, water level changes are about as likely as not to very likely. At MM intensity VIII, the likelihood rises to very likely to virtually certain. This study was the first attempt we are aware of worldwide at incorporating both seismic and hydrogeological factors into a probabilistic framework for earthquake-induced groundwater level changes. The framework is a novel and more universal approach in quantifying responses than previous metrics using epicentral distance, magnitude and seismic energy density. It has potential to enable better comparison of international studies and inform practitioners making decisions around investment to mitigate risk to, and to increase the resilience of, water supply infrastructure.</p>

scholarly journals Seismological and Hydrogeological Controls on New Zealand-Wide Groundwater Level Changes Induced by the 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake

Geofluids ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. C. Weaver ◽  
S. C. Cox ◽  
J. Townend ◽  
H. Rutter ◽  
I. J. Hamling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Permeability Enhancement ◽  
Water Level Changes ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Kaikoura Earthquake ◽  
Directivity Effects ◽  
Groundwater Level Changes

The 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikōura earthquake induced groundwater level changes throughout New Zealand. Water level changes were recorded at 433 sites in compositionally diverse, young, shallow aquifers, at distances of between 4 and 850 km from the earthquake epicentre. Water level changes are inconsistent with static stress changes but do correlate with peak ground acceleration (PGA). At PGAs exceeding ~2 m/s2, water level changes were predominantly persistent increases. At lower PGAs, there were approximately equal numbers of persistent water level increases and decreases. Shear-induced consolidation is interpreted to be the predominant mechanism causing groundwater changes at accelerations exceeding ~2 m/s2, whereas permeability enhancement is interpreted to predominate at lower levels of ground acceleration. Water level changes occur more frequently north of the epicentre, as a result of the fault’s northward rupture and resulting directivity effects. Local hydrogeological conditions also contributed to the observed responses, with larger water level changes occurring in deeper wells and in well-consolidated rocks at equivalent PGA levels.

scholarly journals Seismological and Hydrogeological Controls on New Zealand-Wide Groundwater Level Changes Induced by the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
KC Weaver ◽  
SC Cox ◽  
John Townend ◽  
H Rutter ◽  
IJ Hamling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Permeability Enhancement ◽  
Water Level Changes ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Kaikoura Earthquake ◽  
Directivity Effects ◽  
Groundwater Level Changes

© 2019 K. C. Weaver et al. The 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake induced groundwater level changes throughout New Zealand. Water level changes were recorded at 433 sites in compositionally diverse, young, shallow aquifers, at distances of between 4 and 850 km from the earthquake epicentre. Water level changes are inconsistent with static stress changes but do correlate with peak ground acceleration (PGA). At PGAs exceeding 2 m/s2, water level changes were predominantly persistent increases. At lower PGAs, there were approximately equal numbers of persistent water level increases and decreases. Shear-induced consolidation is interpreted to be the predominant mechanism causing groundwater changes at accelerations exceeding 2 m/s2, whereas permeability enhancement is interpreted to predominate at lower levels of ground acceleration. Water level changes occur more frequently north of the epicentre, as a result of the fault's northward rupture and resulting directivity effects. Local hydrogeological conditions also contributed to the observed responses, with larger water level changes occurring in deeper wells and in well-consolidated rocks at equivalent PGA levels.

Research on the Consolidation Theory of Sand Drain Foundation Settlement

2011 ◽  
Vol 378-379 ◽  
pp. 282-287
Author(s):  
Wei Dong Pan ◽  
Xiao Long Sheng ◽  
Ren Guo Gu ◽  
Ke Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Dissipation Rate ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Theoretical Research ◽  
Foundation Settlement ◽  
Soil Consolidation ◽  
Consolidation Process ◽  
Consolidation Theory ◽  
Groundwater Level Changes

In the consolidation theory of sand drain foundation settlement, the influence of groundwater level changes on the soil consolidation has been paid less attention. Therefore, discussing those changes' influence will help to deepen and perfect the sand drain consolidation theory. Through theoretical research and field measurements, the concrete influences of water level weight, dissipation rate and other factors on the consolidation process are obtained. This helps to improve the consolidation theory and efficiency.

scholarly journals Tidal Behavior and Water-Level Changes in Gravel Aquifers in Response to Multiple Earthquakes: A Case Study From New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
KC Weaver ◽  
ML Doan ◽  
SC Cox ◽  
John Townend ◽  
C Holden
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Dynamic Stress ◽  
Near Field ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Water Level Fluctuations ◽  
Water Level Changes ◽  
Canterbury Earthquake Sequence ◽  
American Geophysical ◽  
American Geophysical Union

©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Earthquakes have been inferred to induce hydrological changes in aquifers on the basis of either changes to well water-levels or tidal behavior, but the relationship between these changes remains unclear. Here, changes in tidal behavior and water-levels are quantified using a hydrological network monitoring gravel aquifers in Canterbury, New Zealand, in response to nine earthquakes (of magnitudes M w 5.4 to 7.8) that occurred between 2008 and 2015. Of the 161 wells analyzed, only 35 contain water-level fluctuations associated with “Earth + Ocean” (7) or “Ocean” (28) tides. Permeability reduction manifest as changes in tidal behavior and increased water-levels in the near field of the Canterbury earthquake sequence of 2010–2011 support the hypothesis of shear-induced consolidation. However, tidal behavior and water-level changes rarely occurred simultaneously (~2%). Water-level changes that occurred with no change in tidal behavior reequilibrated at a new postseismic level more quickly (on timescales of ~50 min) than when a change in tidal behavior occurred (~240 min to 10 days). Water-level changes were more than likely to occur above a peak dynamic stress of ~50 kPa and were more than likely to not occur below ~10 kPa. The minimum peak dynamic stress required for a tidal behavior change to occur was ~0.2 to 100 kPa.

Different responses of groundwater level changes through hydrogeological characteristics due to M5.4 Pohang earthquake

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soo-Hyoung Lee ◽  
Jae Min Lee ◽  
Heesung Yoon ◽  
Yongje Kim
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Hydraulic Properties ◽  
Seismic Waves ◽  
Observation Well ◽  
Monitoring Wells ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Hydrogeological Characteristics ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Groundwater Level Change ◽  
Groundwater Level Changes

&lt;p&gt;Earthquake of magnitude M5.4 the second largest recorded earthquake occurred in Pohang, South Korea at 05:29:32 (UTC time) on November 15, 2017. The M5.4 event and hundreds of aftershocks produced extreme impacts across the area to date along with human and property damages. The distance between the epicenter of the M5.4 Pohang earthquake and the groundwater observation well is about 43 km for KJ-well and about 76 km for YS-well. Records from these two monitoring wells showed groundwater level changes occurred in 2017-11-15 05:30 (UTC time), about 30 seconds after the earthquake. In KJ-well, 8.0 cm of groundwater level change was observed, and in YS-well, about 30.0 cm of groundwater level change. The changes in groundwater level appeared to be a spike-like pattern that rises immediately due to the compressive action of the aquifer as the seismic waves pass through and then return to its original state. Interestingly, the groundwater level changes in YS-well was observed to be approximately three times greater than KJ-well although YS-well is approximately twice as far from the epicenter as KJ-well. The factors causing these different changes were compared and analyzed for the geometry, hydraulic properties, and geological characteristics of the well locations&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Analysis of Water Level Fluctuations and TDS Variations in the Groundwater at Mewat (Nuh) District, Haryana (India)

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 388-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priyanka Priyanka ◽  
Gopal Krishan ◽  
Lalit Mohan Sharma ◽  
Brijesh Yadav ◽  
N. C Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Water Level ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
High Salinity ◽  
Indian Institute ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Water Level Fluctuations ◽  
Monitoring Wells ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Institute Of Technology ◽  
Continuous Use

Groundwater is the major source for fulfilling the water needs of domestic and agricultural sectors in Mewat district, Haryana, India and its continuous use has put an enormous pressure on the groundwater resource, which along with low rainfall and variable geographical conditions lead to the declining water levels. The other problem of this area is high salinity which is reported intruding to the freshwater zone1. Taking into account the twin problem of declining water level and high salinity the study was taken up jointly by National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee; Sehgal Foundation, Gurgaon and Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee. Groundwater level and TDS (Total dissolved solids) data for pre-monsoon and post-monsoon seasons for the time period of 2011–2015 of 40 monitoring wells developed by Sehgal Foundation, Gurgaon was collected and analysed. It has been found that the groundwater level is decreasing in the area while TDS values show inconsistent trends during 2011-15. Further monitoring of the wells is continued to get the more information on water level and TDS which will help in facilitating the researchers in finding out the applicable solutions for the above problems in the Mewat, Haryana.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document