Multisegment Rupture Hazard Modeling along the Xianshuihe Fault Zone, Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Cheng ◽  
Thomas Chartier ◽  
Xiwei Xu
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Input Constraints ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Fault Slip Rates ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Xianshuihe Fault Zone ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Southern Section

Abstract The Xianshuihe fault is a remarkable strike-slip fault characterized by high slip rate (∼10  mm/yr) and frequent strong historical earthquakes. The potential for future large earthquakes on this fault is enhanced by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. Previous works gave little attention to the probabilities of multisegment ruptures on the Xianshuihe fault. In this study, we build five possible multisegment rupture combination models for the Xianshuihe fault. The fault slip rates and historical earthquakes are used as input constraints to model the future seismicity on the fault segments and test whether the rupture combination models are appropriate. The segment combination model, based essentially on historical ruptures, has produced the seismicity rates most consistent with the historical records, although the model with ruptures on both the entire northern section and southern section should also be considered. The peak ground acceleration values with a return period of 475 yr calculated using the modeled rates on the Xianshuihe fault for both two models are on average larger than the values of the China Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map.

scholarly journals A revised position for the primary strand of the Pleistocene-Holocene San Andreas fault in southern California

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (13) ◽  
pp. eaaz5691
Author(s):  
Kimberly Blisniuk ◽  
Katherine Scharer ◽  
Warren D. Sharp ◽  
Roland Burgmann ◽  
Colin Amos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Southern California ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Large Magnitude ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Dependent Probability

The San Andreas fault has the highest calculated time-dependent probability for large-magnitude earthquakes in southern California. However, where the fault is multistranded east of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, it has been uncertain which strand has the fastest slip rate and, therefore, which has the highest probability of a destructive earthquake. Reconstruction of offset Pleistocene-Holocene landforms dated using the uranium-thorium soil carbonate and beryllium-10 surface exposure techniques indicates slip rates of 24.1 ± 3 millimeter per year for the San Andreas fault, with 21.6 ± 2 and 2.5 ± 1 millimeters per year for the Mission Creek and Banning strands, respectively. These data establish the Mission Creek strand as the primary fault bounding the Pacific and North American plates at this latitude and imply that 6 to 9 meters of elastic strain has accumulated along the fault since the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake, highlighting the potential for large earthquakes along this strand.

Complex Slip Distribution of the 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo, China, Earthquake: An Event Occurring on the Slowly Slipping Fault

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rumeng Guo ◽  
Hongfeng Yang ◽  
Yu Li ◽  
Yong Zheng ◽  
Lupeng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Slip Distribution ◽  
Seismic Gap ◽  
Seismogenic Fault ◽  
Coseismic Slip ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Kunlun Mountain ◽  
Coulomb Failure ◽  
Main Fault ◽  
Large Earthquakes

Abstract The 21 May 2021 Maduo earthquake occurred on the Kunlun Mountain Pass–Jiangcuo fault (KMPJF), a seismogenic fault with no documented large earthquakes. To probe its kinematics, we first estimate the slip rates of the KMPJF and Tuosuo Lake segment (TLS, ∼75 km north of the KMPJF) of the East Kunlun fault (EKLF) based on the secular Global Positioning System (GPS) data using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Our model reveals that the slip rates of the KMPJF and TLS are 1.7 ± 0.8 and 7.1 ± 0.3 mm/yr, respectively. Then, we invert high-resolution GPS and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar observations to decipher the fault geometry and detailed coseismic slip distribution associated with the Maduo earthquake. The geometry of the KMPFJ significantly varies along strike, composed of five fault subsegments. The most slip is accommodated by two steeply dipping fault segments, with the patch of large sinistral slip concentrated in the shallow depth on a simple straight structure. The released seismic moment is ∼1.5×1020  N·m, equivalent to an Mw 7.39 event, with a peak slip of ∼9.3 m. Combining the average coseismic slip and slip rate of the main fault, an earthquake recurrence period of ∼1250−400+1120  yr is estimated. The Maduo earthquake reminds us to reevaluate the potential of seismic gaps where slip rates are low. Based on our calculated Coulomb failure stress, the Maduo earthquake imposes positive stress on the Maqin–Maqu segment of the EKLF, a long-recognized seismic gap, implying that it may accelerate the occurrence of the next major event in this region.

scholarly journals New geodetic constraints on southern San Andreas fault-slip rates, San Gorgonio Pass, California

Geosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine A. Guns ◽  
Richard A Bennett ◽  
Joshua C. Spinler ◽  
Sally F. McGill
Keyword(s):  
Velocity Field ◽  
Southern California ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Plate Boundary ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Fault Slip ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Fault Slip Rates ◽  
Gps Velocity Field

Assessing fault-slip rates in diffuse plate boundary systems such as the San Andreas fault in southern California is critical both to characterize seis­mic hazards and to understand how different fault strands work together to accommodate plate boundary motion. In places such as San Gorgonio Pass, the geometric complexity of numerous fault strands interacting in a small area adds an extra obstacle to understanding the rupture potential and behavior of each individual fault. To better understand partitioning of fault-slip rates in this region, we build a new set of elastic fault-block models that test 16 different model fault geometries for the area. These models build on previ­ous studies by incorporating updated campaign GPS measurements from the San Bernardino Mountains and Eastern Transverse Ranges into a newly calculated GPS velocity field that has been removed of long- and short-term postseismic displacements from 12 past large-magnitude earthquakes to estimate model fault-slip rates. Using this postseismic-reduced GPS velocity field produces a best- fitting model geometry that resolves the long-standing geologic-geodetic slip-rate discrepancy in the Eastern California shear zone when off-fault deformation is taken into account, yielding a summed slip rate of 7.2 ± 2.8 mm/yr. Our models indicate that two active strands of the San Andreas system in San Gorgonio Pass are needed to produce sufficiently low geodetic dextral slip rates to match geologic observations. Lastly, results suggest that postseismic deformation may have more of a role to play in affecting the loading of faults in southern California than previously thought.

Paleoearthquakes on the Húsavík-Flatey Fault in northern Iceland: Where are the large earthquakes?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Remi Matrau ◽  
Yann Klinger ◽  
Jonathan Harrington ◽  
Ulas Avsar ◽  
Esther R. Gudmundsdottir ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Late Glacial ◽  
Fault Scarp ◽  
Alluvial Fan ◽  
Tectonic Deformation ◽  
Birch Wood ◽  
Alluvial Deposits ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Tephra Layers ◽  
Large Earthquakes

<p>Paleoseismology is key to study earthquake recurrence and fault slip rates during the Late Pleistocene-Holocene. The Húsavík-Flatey Fault (HFF) in northern Iceland is a 100 km-long right-lateral transform fault connecting the onshore Northern Volcanic Zone to the offshore Kolbeinsey Ridge and accommodating, together with the Grímsey Oblique Rift (GOR), ~18 mm/yr of relative motion between the Eurasian and North American plates. Significant earthquakes occurred on the HFF in 1755, 1838 and 1872 with estimated magnitudes of 6.5-7. However, historical information on past earthquakes prior to 1755 is very limited in both timing and size.</p><p>We excavated five trenches in a small basin (Vestari Krubbsskál) located 5.5 km southeast of the town of Húsavík and at 300 m.a.s.l. and one trench in an alluvial fan (Traðargerði) located 0.5 km north of Húsavík and at 50 m.a.s.l. In a cold and wet environment, such as in coastal parts of Iceland, one has to take into account periglacial processes affecting the topsoil to discriminate tectonic from non-tectonic deformation. We used tephra layers in the Vestari Krubbsskál and Traðargerði trenches as well as birch wood samples in Traðargerði to constrain the timing of past earthquakes. Tephra layers Hekla-3 (2971 BP) and Hekla-4 (4331±20 BP) are visible in the top half of all the trenches. In addition, a few younger tephra layers are visible in the top part of the trenches. In Traðargerði several dark layers rich in organic matter are found, including birch wood-rich layers from the Earlier Birch Period (9000-7000 BP) and the Later Birch Period (5000-2500 BP). In Vestari Krubbsskál the lower halves of the trenches display mostly lacustrine deposits whereas in Traðargerði the lower half of the trench shows alluvial deposits overlaying coarser deposits (gravels/pebbles) most likely of late-glacial or early post-glacial origins. In addition, early Holocene tephra layers are observed in some of the trenches at both sites and may correspond to Askja-S (10800 BP), Saksunarvatn (10300 BP) and Vedde (12100 BP). These observations provide good age constraints and suggest that both the Vestari Krubbsskál and Traðargerði trenches cover the entire Holocene.</p><p>Trenches at both sites show significant normal deformation in addition to strike-slip, well correlated with their larger scale topographies (pull-apart basin in Vestari Krubbsskál and 45 m-high fault scarp in Traðargerði). We mapped layers, cracks and faults on all trench walls to build a catalogue of Holocene earthquakes. We identified events based on the upward terminations of the cracks and retrodeformation. Our results yield fewer major earthquakes than expected, suggesting that large earthquakes (around magnitude 7) are probably rare and the more typical HFF earthquakes of magnitude 6-6.5 likely produce limited topsoil deformation.[yk1]  Our interpretation also suggests that the Holocene slip rate [yk2] for the fault section we are studying may be slower than the estimated geodetic slip rate (6 to 9 mm/yr)[yk3]  for the entire onshore HFF, although secondary onshore sub-parallel fault strands could accommodate part of the deformation.</p>

Magnitudes of future large earthquakes near Istanbul quantified from 1500 years of historical earthquakes, present-day microseismicity and GPS slip rates

2019 ◽  
Vol 764 ◽  
pp. 77-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatih Bulut ◽  
Bahadır Aktuğ ◽  
Cenk Yaltırak ◽  
Aslı Doğru ◽  
Haluk Özener
Keyword(s):  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Large Earthquakes

Present Seismotectonic Behavior of the EAF from Improved Seismicity Catalog and Earthquake Source Mechanism Solutions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sezim Ezgi Guvercin ◽  
Hayrullah Karabulut ◽  
Ugur Dogan ◽  
Ziyadin Cakir ◽  
Semih Ergintav ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Deformation ◽  
Complex Structure ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Earthquake Source ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Source Mechanisms ◽  
Seismicity Catalog ◽  
Large Earthquakes

<p>The seismotectonic behavior of the Eastern Anatolia is predominantly controlled by the East Anatolian Fault (EAF). Together with the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), this ~400 km long sinistral transform fault, accommodates the westward motion of Anatolia between Anatolian and Arabian plates with a slip rate of ~10 mm/yr which is significantly slower than the motion of the NAF (25 mm/yr). Although this two major faults are similar in terms of the migration of the large earthquakes from east to west, the present seismicity of the EAF is high compared to the NAF. Except for the several earthquakes with Mw > 5, there were no devastating earthquakes during the instrumental period along the EAF. The absence of large earthquakes during the last ~50 years along the EAF indicates presence of significant seismic gaps and potential seismic hazard in the region. Recent studies indicate segmentation of the EAF with varying lengths of creeping and locked segments. Some details of the geometries and the slip rates of these segments have been estimated by the InSAR observations. Both InSAR and GPS observations indicate that the maximum creep along this the EAF is ~10 mm/yr, approximately the slip rate of the EAF.</p><p>While both geodetic data verify the existence of creep from surface deformation, its relation to the seismic behavior of the EAF is less clear. There is a ~30 km long creeping segment to the north-east of Lake Hazar which generates no significant seismicity. On the other hand, another creeping segment to the south-west of Lake Hazar, there are repeating events, below the depth of 10 km, with a horizontal extent of 15 km. The highly fractured and complex structure of this fault zone is also confirmed by the available focal mechanisms which shows significant variety.</p><p>In this study, we update seismicity catalog with improved locations to date and present a uniform and high quality focal mechanism catalog down to M4 completeness, using regional waveforms. The seismicity catalog is used to estimate the geometry of the segmentation while the novel earthquake source mechanisms are used to understand the kinematics of the segments and interactions. Moreover, we present the latest M4.9, 2019, Sivrice earthquake, pointing out a location where the stress is perturbed due to a transition from creeping segment to locked segment. (Supported by TUBITAK no: 118Y435 project)</p>

The probability of large earthquakes cannot be calculated from seismicity rates

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Max Wyss
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Waves ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Strike Slip ◽  
Magnitude Scale ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Normal Faults ◽  
Earthquake Probability ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Large Earthquakes

<p>The hypothesis that extrapolation of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) relationship allows estimates of the probability of large earthquakes is incorrect. For nearly 200 faults for which the recurrence time, T<sub>r</sub> (1/probability of occurrence), is known from trenching and geodetically measured deformation rates, it has been shown that T<sub>r</sub> based on seismicity is overestimated typically by one order of magnitude or more. The reason for this is that there are not enough earthquakes along major faults. In some cases there are too few earthquakes for the fault to be mapped based on seismicity. Some examples are the following rupture segments of great faults: the 1717 Alpine Fault, the 1856 San Andreas, the 1906 San Andreas, the 2001 Denali earthquakes, for which geological Tr are 100 years to 300 years and seismicity T<sub>r</sub> are 10,000 to 100,000 years. In addition, the hypothesis leads to impossible results when one considers the dependence of the b-value on stress. It has been shown that thrusts, strike-slip and normal faults have low, intermediate and high b-values, respectively. This implies that, regardless of local slip rates, the probability of large earthquakes predicted by the hypothesis is high, intermediate and low in thrust, strike-slip, and normal faulting, respectively. Measurements of recurrence probability show a different dependence: earthquake probability depends on slip rate. Finally, the hypothesis predicts different probabilities for large earthquakes, depending on the magnitude scale used. For the 1906 rupture segment, the difference in probability of an M8 earthquake is approximately a factor of 50, using the two available catalogs. Various countries measure earthquake magnitude on their own scale that is intended to agree with the M<sub>L</sub> scale of California or the M<sub>S</sub> scale of the USGS. However, it is not trivial to match a scale that is valid for a different region with different attenuation of seismic waves. As a result, some regional M-scales differ from the global M<sub>S</sub> scale, which yields different T<sub>r</sub> for the same Mmax in the same region, depending on whether the global or local magnitude scale is used. Based on the aforementioned facts, the hypothesis that probabilities of large earthquakes can be estimated by extrapolating the GR relationship has to be abandoned.</p>

scholarly journals Slip rate determined from cosmogenic nuclides on normal-fault facets

Geology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-70
Author(s):  
Jim Tesson ◽  
Lucilla Benedetti ◽  
Vincent Godard ◽  
Catherine Novaes ◽  
Jules Fleury ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Normal Fault ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Fault Slip ◽  
Normal Faults ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Topographic Features ◽  
The Past ◽  
Data Inversion ◽  
Fault Slip Rates

Abstract Facets are major topographic features built over several 100 k.y. above active normal faults. Their development integrates cumulative displacements over a longer time frame than many other geomorphological markers, and they are widespread in diverse extensional settings. We have determined the 36Cl cosmogenic nuclide concentration on limestone faceted spurs at four sites in the Central Apennines (Italy), representing variable facet height (100–400 m). The 36Cl concentration profiles show nearly constant values over the height of the facet, suggesting the facet slope has reached a steady-state equilibrium for 36Cl production. We model the 36Cl buildup on a facet based on a gradual exposure of the sample resulting from fault slip and denudation. Data inversion with this forward model yields accurate constraints on fault slip rates over the past 20–200 k.y., which are in agreement with the long-term rate independently determined on some of those faults over the past 1 m.y. 36Cl measurements on faceted spurs can therefore constrain fault slip rate over time spans as long as 200 k.y., a time period presently undersampled in most morphotectonic studies.

Short-range distance measurements along the San Andreas fault system in central California, 1975 to 1979

1981 ◽  
Vol 71 (5) ◽  
pp. 1607-1624
Author(s):  
M. Lisowski ◽  
W. H. Prescott
Keyword(s):  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
San Juan ◽  
Distance Measurements ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Central California ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
Fault Slip Rates ◽  
San Juan Bautista ◽  
Wide Zone

abstract Periodic measurements of fault-crossing networks with a side length of 1 to 3 km are being made to monitor deformation across fault zones in California. The distance measurements are made with a Hewlett-Packard 3800 or 3808 electronic distance meter and have a maximum standard deviation of 5 mm. Deformation measured within networks that span the San Juan Bautista-Cholame segment of the San Andreas fault in central California yields slip rates similar to those measured across a 100- to 300-m-wide zone by repeated alinement array surveys. Fault slip rates increase from near 0 to 32 mm/yr between San Juan Bautista and Bitterwater Valley in step-like increments. From Bitterwater to Slack Canyon slip rates vary between 26 and 32 mm/yr. Slip rates decrease southwestward of Slack Canyon to 3 mm/yr at Cholame. In contrast, Geodolite measurements of deformation across a 20-km-wide zone are consistent from San Juan Bautista to Slack Canyon and imply a 32 ± 2 mm/yr slip rate. Deformation across the Calaveras fault accounts for the difference between Geodolite and near-fault slip rates between San Juan Bautista and Bear Valley, although the zone of deformation is wider than 2.5 km just south of Hollister. At Bear Valley, measurements of a short-range network crossing the Paicines fault imply a slip rate of 10 ± 3 mm/yr during the period 1976 to 1979. From Slack Canyon to Cholame, Geodolite measurements show a constant decrease in the rate of shallow slip.

scholarly journals A systems-based approach to parameterise seismic hazard in regions with little historical or instrumental seismicity: active fault and seismogenic source databases for southern Malawi

Solid Earth ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 187-217
Author(s):  
Jack N. Williams ◽  
Hassan Mdala ◽  
Åke Fagereng ◽  
Luke N. J. Wedmore ◽  
Juliet Biggs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Active Fault ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Fault Slip ◽  
East African ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Fault Slip Rates ◽  
Seismogenic Source ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
African Rift

Abstract. Seismic hazard is commonly characterised using instrumental seismic records. However, these records are short relative to earthquake repeat times, and extrapolating to estimate seismic hazard can misrepresent the probable location, magnitude, and frequency of future large earthquakes. Although paleoseismology can address this challenge, this approach requires certain geomorphic setting, is resource intensive, and can carry large inherent uncertainties. Here, we outline how fault slip rates and recurrence intervals can be estimated by combining fault geometry, earthquake-scaling relationships, geodetically derived regional strain rates, and geological constraints of regional strain distribution. We apply this approach to southern Malawi, near the southern end of the East African Rift, and where, although no on-fault slip rate measurements exist, there are constraints on strain partitioning between border and intra-basin faults. This has led to the development of the South Malawi Active Fault Database (SMAFD), a geographical database of 23 active fault traces, and the South Malawi Seismogenic Source Database (SMSSD), in which we apply our systems-based approach to estimate earthquake magnitudes and recurrence intervals for the faults compiled in the SMAFD. We estimate earthquake magnitudes of MW 5.4–7.2 for individual fault sections in the SMSSD and MW 5.6–7.8 for whole-fault ruptures. However, low fault slip rates (intermediate estimates ∼ 0.05–0.8 mm/yr) imply long recurrence intervals between events: 102–105 years for border faults and 103–106 years for intra-basin faults. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the large range of these estimates can best be reduced with improved geodetic constraints in southern Malawi. The SMAFD and SMSSD provide a framework for using geological and geodetic information to characterise seismic hazard in regions with few on-fault slip rate measurements, and they could be adapted for use elsewhere in the East African Rift and globally.

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