Present Seismotectonic Behavior of the EAF from Improved Seismicity Catalog and Earthquake Source Mechanism Solutions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sezim Ezgi Guvercin ◽  
Hayrullah Karabulut ◽  
Ugur Dogan ◽  
Ziyadin Cakir ◽  
Semih Ergintav ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Deformation ◽  
Complex Structure ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Earthquake Source ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Source Mechanisms ◽  
Seismicity Catalog ◽  
Large Earthquakes

<p>The seismotectonic behavior of the Eastern Anatolia is predominantly controlled by the East Anatolian Fault (EAF). Together with the North Anatolian Fault (NAF), this ~400 km long sinistral transform fault, accommodates the westward motion of Anatolia between Anatolian and Arabian plates with a slip rate of ~10 mm/yr which is significantly slower than the motion of the NAF (25 mm/yr). Although this two major faults are similar in terms of the migration of the large earthquakes from east to west, the present seismicity of the EAF is high compared to the NAF. Except for the several earthquakes with Mw > 5, there were no devastating earthquakes during the instrumental period along the EAF. The absence of large earthquakes during the last ~50 years along the EAF indicates presence of significant seismic gaps and potential seismic hazard in the region. Recent studies indicate segmentation of the EAF with varying lengths of creeping and locked segments. Some details of the geometries and the slip rates of these segments have been estimated by the InSAR observations. Both InSAR and GPS observations indicate that the maximum creep along this the EAF is ~10 mm/yr, approximately the slip rate of the EAF.</p><p>While both geodetic data verify the existence of creep from surface deformation, its relation to the seismic behavior of the EAF is less clear. There is a ~30 km long creeping segment to the north-east of Lake Hazar which generates no significant seismicity. On the other hand, another creeping segment to the south-west of Lake Hazar, there are repeating events, below the depth of 10 km, with a horizontal extent of 15 km. The highly fractured and complex structure of this fault zone is also confirmed by the available focal mechanisms which shows significant variety.</p><p>In this study, we update seismicity catalog with improved locations to date and present a uniform and high quality focal mechanism catalog down to M4 completeness, using regional waveforms. The seismicity catalog is used to estimate the geometry of the segmentation while the novel earthquake source mechanisms are used to understand the kinematics of the segments and interactions. Moreover, we present the latest M4.9, 2019, Sivrice earthquake, pointing out a location where the stress is perturbed due to a transition from creeping segment to locked segment. (Supported by TUBITAK no: 118Y435 project)</p>

scholarly journals A revised position for the primary strand of the Pleistocene-Holocene San Andreas fault in southern California

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (13) ◽  
pp. eaaz5691
Author(s):  
Kimberly Blisniuk ◽  
Katherine Scharer ◽  
Warren D. Sharp ◽  
Roland Burgmann ◽  
Colin Amos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Southern California ◽  
San Andreas Fault ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Large Magnitude ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
San Andreas ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Dependent Probability

The San Andreas fault has the highest calculated time-dependent probability for large-magnitude earthquakes in southern California. However, where the fault is multistranded east of the Los Angeles metropolitan area, it has been uncertain which strand has the fastest slip rate and, therefore, which has the highest probability of a destructive earthquake. Reconstruction of offset Pleistocene-Holocene landforms dated using the uranium-thorium soil carbonate and beryllium-10 surface exposure techniques indicates slip rates of 24.1 ± 3 millimeter per year for the San Andreas fault, with 21.6 ± 2 and 2.5 ± 1 millimeters per year for the Mission Creek and Banning strands, respectively. These data establish the Mission Creek strand as the primary fault bounding the Pacific and North American plates at this latitude and imply that 6 to 9 meters of elastic strain has accumulated along the fault since the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake, highlighting the potential for large earthquakes along this strand.

Complex Slip Distribution of the 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo, China, Earthquake: An Event Occurring on the Slowly Slipping Fault

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rumeng Guo ◽  
Hongfeng Yang ◽  
Yu Li ◽  
Yong Zheng ◽  
Lupeng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Slip Distribution ◽  
Seismic Gap ◽  
Seismogenic Fault ◽  
Coseismic Slip ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Kunlun Mountain ◽  
Coulomb Failure ◽  
Main Fault ◽  
Large Earthquakes

Abstract The 21 May 2021 Maduo earthquake occurred on the Kunlun Mountain Pass–Jiangcuo fault (KMPJF), a seismogenic fault with no documented large earthquakes. To probe its kinematics, we first estimate the slip rates of the KMPJF and Tuosuo Lake segment (TLS, ∼75 km north of the KMPJF) of the East Kunlun fault (EKLF) based on the secular Global Positioning System (GPS) data using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Our model reveals that the slip rates of the KMPJF and TLS are 1.7 ± 0.8 and 7.1 ± 0.3 mm/yr, respectively. Then, we invert high-resolution GPS and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar observations to decipher the fault geometry and detailed coseismic slip distribution associated with the Maduo earthquake. The geometry of the KMPFJ significantly varies along strike, composed of five fault subsegments. The most slip is accommodated by two steeply dipping fault segments, with the patch of large sinistral slip concentrated in the shallow depth on a simple straight structure. The released seismic moment is ∼1.5×1020  N·m, equivalent to an Mw 7.39 event, with a peak slip of ∼9.3 m. Combining the average coseismic slip and slip rate of the main fault, an earthquake recurrence period of ∼1250−400+1120  yr is estimated. The Maduo earthquake reminds us to reevaluate the potential of seismic gaps where slip rates are low. Based on our calculated Coulomb failure stress, the Maduo earthquake imposes positive stress on the Maqin–Maqu segment of the EKLF, a long-recognized seismic gap, implying that it may accelerate the occurrence of the next major event in this region.

Paleoearthquakes on the Húsavík-Flatey Fault in northern Iceland: Where are the large earthquakes?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Remi Matrau ◽  
Yann Klinger ◽  
Jonathan Harrington ◽  
Ulas Avsar ◽  
Esther R. Gudmundsdottir ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Late Glacial ◽  
Fault Scarp ◽  
Alluvial Fan ◽  
Tectonic Deformation ◽  
Birch Wood ◽  
Alluvial Deposits ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Tephra Layers ◽  
Large Earthquakes

<p>Paleoseismology is key to study earthquake recurrence and fault slip rates during the Late Pleistocene-Holocene. The Húsavík-Flatey Fault (HFF) in northern Iceland is a 100 km-long right-lateral transform fault connecting the onshore Northern Volcanic Zone to the offshore Kolbeinsey Ridge and accommodating, together with the Grímsey Oblique Rift (GOR), ~18 mm/yr of relative motion between the Eurasian and North American plates. Significant earthquakes occurred on the HFF in 1755, 1838 and 1872 with estimated magnitudes of 6.5-7. However, historical information on past earthquakes prior to 1755 is very limited in both timing and size.</p><p>We excavated five trenches in a small basin (Vestari Krubbsskál) located 5.5 km southeast of the town of Húsavík and at 300 m.a.s.l. and one trench in an alluvial fan (Traðargerði) located 0.5 km north of Húsavík and at 50 m.a.s.l. In a cold and wet environment, such as in coastal parts of Iceland, one has to take into account periglacial processes affecting the topsoil to discriminate tectonic from non-tectonic deformation. We used tephra layers in the Vestari Krubbsskál and Traðargerði trenches as well as birch wood samples in Traðargerði to constrain the timing of past earthquakes. Tephra layers Hekla-3 (2971 BP) and Hekla-4 (4331±20 BP) are visible in the top half of all the trenches. In addition, a few younger tephra layers are visible in the top part of the trenches. In Traðargerði several dark layers rich in organic matter are found, including birch wood-rich layers from the Earlier Birch Period (9000-7000 BP) and the Later Birch Period (5000-2500 BP). In Vestari Krubbsskál the lower halves of the trenches display mostly lacustrine deposits whereas in Traðargerði the lower half of the trench shows alluvial deposits overlaying coarser deposits (gravels/pebbles) most likely of late-glacial or early post-glacial origins. In addition, early Holocene tephra layers are observed in some of the trenches at both sites and may correspond to Askja-S (10800 BP), Saksunarvatn (10300 BP) and Vedde (12100 BP). These observations provide good age constraints and suggest that both the Vestari Krubbsskál and Traðargerði trenches cover the entire Holocene.</p><p>Trenches at both sites show significant normal deformation in addition to strike-slip, well correlated with their larger scale topographies (pull-apart basin in Vestari Krubbsskál and 45 m-high fault scarp in Traðargerði). We mapped layers, cracks and faults on all trench walls to build a catalogue of Holocene earthquakes. We identified events based on the upward terminations of the cracks and retrodeformation. Our results yield fewer major earthquakes than expected, suggesting that large earthquakes (around magnitude 7) are probably rare and the more typical HFF earthquakes of magnitude 6-6.5 likely produce limited topsoil deformation.[yk1]  Our interpretation also suggests that the Holocene slip rate [yk2] for the fault section we are studying may be slower than the estimated geodetic slip rate (6 to 9 mm/yr)[yk3]  for the entire onshore HFF, although secondary onshore sub-parallel fault strands could accommodate part of the deformation.</p>

Multisegment Rupture Hazard Modeling along the Xianshuihe Fault Zone, Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia Cheng ◽  
Thomas Chartier ◽  
Xiwei Xu
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Input Constraints ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Fault Slip Rates ◽  
Seismicity Rates ◽  
Xianshuihe Fault Zone ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Southern Section

Abstract The Xianshuihe fault is a remarkable strike-slip fault characterized by high slip rate (∼10  mm/yr) and frequent strong historical earthquakes. The potential for future large earthquakes on this fault is enhanced by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. Previous works gave little attention to the probabilities of multisegment ruptures on the Xianshuihe fault. In this study, we build five possible multisegment rupture combination models for the Xianshuihe fault. The fault slip rates and historical earthquakes are used as input constraints to model the future seismicity on the fault segments and test whether the rupture combination models are appropriate. The segment combination model, based essentially on historical ruptures, has produced the seismicity rates most consistent with the historical records, although the model with ruptures on both the entire northern section and southern section should also be considered. The peak ground acceleration values with a return period of 475 yr calculated using the modeled rates on the Xianshuihe fault for both two models are on average larger than the values of the China Seismic Ground Motion Parameters Zonation Map.

scholarly journals A physics-based approach of deep interseismic creep for viscoelastic strike-slip earthquake cycle models

2019 ◽  
Vol 220 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-95
Author(s):  
Lucile Bruhat
Keyword(s):  
Surface Deformation ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Strike Slip ◽  
Dynamic Rupture ◽  
Crust And Upper Mantle ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Region I ◽  
Best Fitting ◽  
Time Invariant ◽  
Analytical Expressions

SUMMARY Most geodetic inversions of surface deformation rates consider the depth distribution of interseismic fault slip-rate to be time invariant. However, some numerical simulations show downdip penetration of dynamic rupture into regions with velocity-strengthening friction, with subsequent updip propagation of the locked-to-creeping transition. Recently, Bruhat and Segall developed a new method to characterize interseismic slip rates, that allows slip to penetrate up dip into the locked region. This simple model considered deep interseismic slip as a crack loaded at its downdip end, and provided analytical expressions for stress drop within the crack, slip and slip rate along the fault. This study extends this approach to strike-slip fault environments, and includes coupling of creep to viscoelastic flow in the lower crust and upper mantle. I use this model to investigate interseismic deformation rates along the Carrizo Plain section of the San Andreas fault. This study reviews possible models, elastic and viscoelastic, for fitting horizontal surface rates. Using this updated approach, I develop a physics-based solution for deep interseismic creep which accounts for possible slow vertical propagation, and investigate how it improves the fit of the horizontal deformation rates in the Carrizo Plain region. I found solutions for fitting the surface deformation rates that allow for reasonable estimates for earthquake rupture depth and coseismic displacement and improves the overall fit to the data. Best-fitting solutions present half-space relaxation time around 70 yr, and very low propagation speeds, less than a metre per year, suggesting a lack of creep propagation.

Source Investigation of the 2018 Lombok (Indonesia) Earthquake Sequences

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimas Salomo Januarianto Sianipar ◽  
Bor-Shouh Huang ◽  
Kuo-Fong Ma ◽  
Tio Azhar Prakoso Setiadi ◽  
Ming-Che Hsieh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Thrust Faulting ◽  
The North ◽  
Banda Arc ◽  
Finite Fault ◽  
Source Mechanisms ◽  
Back Arc ◽  
Earthquake Sequences ◽  
Large Earthquakes ◽  
Lombok Island

<p>The western extension and deformation mechanism of Flores back-arc thrust in eastern Sunda-Banda Arc (Indonesia) are poorly investigated, and, thus, poorly constrained. From late July to August 2018, a sequence of large earthquakes (M6.4+) took place in the north of Lombok Island that marked the previously westernmost termination of the continuous zone of the back-arc thrusting. The 2018 Lombok earthquake sequences that began with Mw 6.4 (28 July 2018), and followed by Mw 6.9 (5 August 2018), and Mw 6.9 (19 August 2019) with massive subsequent aftershocks claimed on more than 500 casualties, nearly 500,000 people displaced and serious damages on Lombok Island. Here we relocate the aftershocks and perform the finite fault inversions of M6.4+ earthquake sequences constrained with teleseismic body and surface waves. Both refined hypocenters of aftershocks and rupture processes of large earthquakes provide detail kinematic descriptions of the source mechanisms of the sequences. The aftershocks distributions and slip model suggest that the earthquakes occurred on south-dipping low angle thrust faulting that striking to the east while it also activated aftershocks on surrounding complex shallow faulting with distinguishing distributions. The source inversions of large earthquakes over the entire of the western part of Flores back-arc thrust resulted as simple circular rupture propagations initiated from ~15 km depth for all events except the westernmost events (Mw 6.9 on 5 August 2019) that had a more complex rupture and initiated from shallower depth, and with slip distributed cross over the former identified westernmost termination of the Flores back-arc thrust. Our study suggests the further extension of back-arc thrusting and the possible structures revealed from the subsequence aftershocks. The source characterizations revealed in this study would be important for further seismic hazard analysis in this region.</p>

scholarly journals Effects of Erosion and Deposition on Constraining Vertical Slip Rates of Thrust Faults: A Case Study of the Minle–Damaying Fault in the North Qilian Shan, NE Tibetan Plateau

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingri Liu ◽  
Huiping Zhang ◽  
Youli Li ◽  
Feipeng Huang ◽  
Xudong Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Stratigraphic Sequence ◽  
Erosion And Deposition ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
The North ◽  
Vertical Fault ◽  
Fault Displacement

The height of a thrust-fault scarp on a fluvial terrace would be modified due to erosion and deposition, and these surface processes can also influence the dating of terraces. Under such circumstances, the vertical slip rate of a fault can be misestimated due to the inaccurate displacement and/or abandonment age of the terrace. In this contribution, considering the effect of erosion and deposition on fault scarps, we re-constrained the vertical slip rate of the west end of the Minle–Damaying Fault (MDF), one of the thrusts in the north margin of the Qilian Shan that marks the northeastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. In addition, we tried to explore a more reliable method for obtaining the vertical fault displacement and the abandonment age of terraces with AMS 14C dating. The heights of the surface scarps and the displacements of the fluvial gravel layers exposed on the Yudai River terraces were precisely measured with the Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry and the real-time kinematic (RTK) GPS. The Monte Carlo simulation method was used to estimate the uncertainties of fault displacements and vertical slip rates. Based on comparative analysis, the dating sample from the fluvial sand layer underlying the thickest loess in the footwall was suggested to best represent the abandonment age of the terrace, and the fluvial gravel layer could better preserve the original vertical fault displacement compared with the surface layer. Using the most reliable ages and vertical offsets, the vertical slip rate of the MDF was estimated to be 0.25–0.28 mm/a since 42.3 ± 0.5 ka (T10) and 0.14–0.24 mm/a since 16.1 ± 0.2 ka (T7). The difference between the wrong vertical slip rate and the right one can even reach an order of magnitude. We also suggest that if the built measuring profile is long enough, the uncertainties in the height of a surface scarp would be better constrained and the result can also be taken as the vertical fault displacement. Furthermore, the consistency of chronology with stratigraphic sequence or with terrace sequence are also key to constraining the abandonment ages of terraces. The fault activity at the study site is weaker than that in the middle and east segments of the MDF, which is likely due to its end position.

Seismological Constraints on Fault-Slip Source Models and Rupture Characteristics of Global Large Earthquakes (Mw ≥ 7.5) and Associated Tsunamis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seda Yolsal-Çevikbilen ◽  
Tuncay Taymaz
Keyword(s):  
Near Field ◽  
Fault Slip ◽  
Earthquake Source ◽  
P Wave ◽  
Slip Distribution ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
Source Mechanisms ◽  
Source Models ◽  
Large Earthquakes

<p>Large and destructive earthquakes (M<sub>w</sub>≥ 7.5) occur worldwide particularly along the major subduction zones causing extensive damage and loss of life in the hinterland of epicentral region. Source models and rupture characteristics of these earthquakes (i.e. faulting geometry, focal depth, non-uniform finite-fault slip distributions) can be precisely determined by using seismological data and multidisciplinary earth-science observations. It is also known that earthquake source parameters play key roles in the modelling of secondary events such as earthquake-induced tsunamis. There are many studies emphasizing the importance of using heterogonous slip distribution models of earthquakes in mathematical tsunami simulations to predict synthetic tsunami waves more consistent with the observed ones. In this study, we obtained double-couple source mechanisms and slip distribution models of complex large earthquakes (M<sub>w</sub>≥ 7.5) lately occurred at different parts of the Earth. For this purpose, we used point-source teleseismic P- and SH- body waveform inversion and kinematic slip distribution inversion techniques. Besides, azimuthal distributions of P- wave first motion polarities, which are recorded by near-field and regional seismic stations, are checked to approve obtained minimum misfit source mechanism parameters of earthquakes. We essentially observed that tsunamigenic earthquakes occurred at shallow focal depths (h ≤ 70 km) with dip-slip source mechanisms and rather complex slip distributions along the fault planes. However, in some cases, tsunami waves may be unexpectedly triggered due to the secondary effects of large strike-slip earthquakes (e.g., September 28, 2018 Palu, Indonesia - M<sub>w</sub>7.5). Here, we discuss our inversion results, which reveal the significant contributions of earthquake source studies on resolving the relationships between the faulting geometry, rupture characteristics and tsunami generation. Furthermore, the necessity of high-resolution bathymetry data in numerical tsunami simulations is highlighted for the modelling of tsunami waves, in particular, recorded at the near-field tide-gauge stations. This study is partially supported by the Turkish Academy of Sciences (TÜBA) through GEBIP program.</p>

scholarly journals Variable Thrust Rates of the Eastern Qilianshan Mountain Front, Northeastern Margin of the Tibet Plateau and Its Implication to the Topography of the Yongchangnan Shan

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Jinghao ◽  
Li Youli ◽  
Ren Zhikun ◽  
Hu Xiu ◽  
Xiong Jianguo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Strike Slip ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
The West ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Study Region ◽  
The North ◽  
Mountain Front ◽  
The Tibet Plateau

It is commonly assumed a thrust has a constant slip and uplifting rate along strike, however, this simplified model cannot always be consistent with field observations. The along strike slip patterns with variable offsets and rates contain plenty of information about the characteristics of the faulting behavior and its relationship with adjacent faults. The east Qilian Shan, located at the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, provides us an excellent opportunity to study the faulting behavior in a thrust-bounded range area. Besides the previously reported slip rates of the N-W trending tectonics across the region, we augmented the data by surveying the Fengle fault (FF), one of the north bounding thrusts of the Yongchangnan Shan. Another north bounding fault is the Kangningqiao Fault (KNF), east of the FF. Based on the vertical offsets and rates along the fault, we constructed the slip pattern along strike. The results show the vertical slip rate of the FF ranges from 0.7 ± 0.1 mm/a to 2.8 ± 1.3 mm/a across three surveyed sites. The slip rate decreases from the east to the west. The FF and KNF might be inferred as two segments of a single segmented thrust controlling the uplift of the Yongchangnan Shan. By comparing the uplift onsets in the study region, we discuss the northeastward propagated deformation along the northeastern margin of the Tibet plateau.

scholarly journals Evidence for temporal clustering of large earthquakes in the wellington region from computer models of seismicity

1998 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell Robinson ◽  
Rafael Benites ◽  
Russ Van Dissen
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Strike Slip ◽  
Seismic Behaviour ◽  
Plate Interface ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Elastic Interactions ◽  
Temporal Clustering ◽  
Engineering Insurance ◽  
Event Times ◽  
Large Earthquakes

Temporal clustering of large earthquakes in the Wellington region, New Zealand, has been investigated with a computer model that generates long synthetic seismicity catalogues. The model includes the elastic interactions between faults. Faults included in the model, besides the subduction thrust between the Australian and Pacific plates, are segments of the four major strike-slip faults that overlie the plate interface (Wairarapa, Wellington, Ohariu, and Wairau faults). Parameters of the model are adjusted to reproduce the geologically ohserved slip rates of the strike-slip faults. The seismic slip rate of the subduction thrust, which is unknown, is taken as 25% of the maximum predicted by the plate tectonic convergence rate, and its position fixed according to recent geodetic results. For comparison, the model was rerun with the elastic interactions suppressed, corresponding to the usual approach in the calculation of seismic hazard where each fault is considered in isolation. Considering earthquakes of magnitude 7.2 or more ("characteristic" events in the sense that they rupture most of a fault plane). the number of short (0-3 years) inter-event times is much higher with interactions than for the corresponding case without interactions (46% vs. 2% or all inter-event times). This reduces to 9% vs. 2% if the subduction thrust is removed from the models. Paleoseismic studies of the past seismic behaviour of the subduction thrust are clearly needed if the degree of clustering is to be tightly constrained. Although some other aspects of our model can he improved in future, we think that the probability of significant short-term clustering of large events, normally neglected in hazard studies, is very high. This has important implications for the engineering, insurance and emergency response communities.

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