Geologic and geodetic constraints on the seismic hazard of Malawi’s active faults: The Malawi Seismogenic Source Database (MSSD)

Active fault data are commonly used in seismic hazard assessments, but there are challenges in deriving the slip rate, geometry, and frequency of earthquakes along active faults. Herein, we present the open-access geospatial Malawi Seismogenic Source Database (MSSD), which describes the seismogenic properties of faults that have formed during East African rifting in Malawi. We first use empirical observations to geometrically classify active faults into section, fault, and multi-fault seismogenic sources. For sources in the North Basin of Lake Malawi, slip rates can be derived from the vertical offset of a seismic reflector that is estimated to be 75 ka based on dated core. Elsewhere, slip rates are constrained from advancing a ‘systems-based’ approach that partitions geodetically-derived rift extension rates in Malawi between seismogenic sources using a priori constraints on regional strain distribution in magma-poor continental rifts. Slip rates are then combined with source geometry and empirical scaling relationships to estimate earthquake magnitudes and recurrence intervals, and their uncertainty is described from the variability of outcomes from a logic tree used in these calculations. We find that for sources in the Lake Malawi’s North Basin, where slip rates can be derived from both the geodetic data and the offset seismic reflector, the slip rate estimates are within error of each other, although those from the offset reflector are higher. Sources in the MSSD are 5–200 km long, which implies that large magnitude (MW 7–8) earthquakes may occur in Malawi. Low slip rates (0.05–2 mm/yr), however, mean that the frequency of such events will be low (recurrence intervals ~103–104 years). The MSSD represents an important resource for investigating Malawi’s increasing seismic risks and provides a framework for incorporating active fault data into seismic hazard assessment in other tectonically active regions.

THE RESIZING OF THE MOST POWERFUL ITALIAN INSTRUMENTAL EARTHQUAKE (SEPTEMBER 8, 1905, CALABRIA REGION, SOUTHERN ITALY)

The 8 September 1905 Calabria earthquake is the seismic event for which the Italian Seismic Catalogue shows the highest instrumental magnitude of the whole dataset. However, the reported Ms=7.47 was calculated over only two stations, and leaves room for a revision. In this work I provide a new estimate of the surface-wave magnitude of the earthquake calculated over sixteen individual values of magnitude from seven different stations. The new estimate is Ms=7.06±0.13, a value that is consistently lined up with other estimates provided by means of macroseismic or geological evidence. The novel estimate is stable despite alternative epicentral locations and different depths proposed for this event by several investigators. The net variation of almost half a unit magnitude implies a resizing of the seismogenic source of the event in the frame of the seismotectonics of the region, and highlights the strong need for a systematic revision of the instrumental magnitude estimates for several ‘historical’ earthquakes that occurred at the dawning of the instrumental seismology.

Multiple Lines of Evidence for a Potentially Seismogenic Fault Along the Central-Apennine (Italy) Active Extensional Belt–An Unexpected Outcome of the MW6.5 Norcia 2016 Earthquake

The Apenninic chain, in central Italy, has been recently struck by the Norcia 2016 seismic sequence. Three mainshocks, in 2016, occurred on August 24 (MW6.0), October 26 (MW 5.9) and October 30 (MW6.5) along well-known late Quaternary active WSW-dipping normal faults. Coseismic fractures and hypocentral seismicity distribution are mostly associated with failure along the Mt Vettore-Mt Bove (VBF) fault. Nevertheless, following the October 26 shock, the aftershock spatial distribution suggests the activation of a source not previously mapped beyond the northern tip of the VBF system. In this area, a remarkable seismicity rate was observed also during 2017 and 2018, the most energetic event being the April 10, 2018 (MW4.6) normal fault earthquake. In this paper, we advance the hypothesis that the Norcia seismic sequence activated a previously unknown seismogenic source. We constrain its geometry and seismogenic behavior by exploiting: 1) morphometric analysis of high-resolution topographic data; 2) field geologic- and morphotectonic evidence within the context of long-term deformation constraints; 3) 3D seismological validation of fault activity, and 4) Coulomb stress transfer modeling. Our results support the existence of distributed and subtle deformation along normal fault segments related to an immature structure, the Pievebovigliana fault (PBF). The fault strikes in NNW-SSE direction, dips to SW and is in right-lateral en echelon setting with the VBF system. Its activation has been highlighted by most of the seismicity observed in the sector. The geometry and location are compatible with volumes of enhanced stress identified by Coulomb stress-transfer computations. Its reconstructed length (at least 13 km) is compatible with the occurrence of MW≥6.0 earthquakes in a sector heretofore characterized by low seismic activity. The evidence for PBF is a new observation associated with the Norcia 2016 seismic sequence and is consistent with the overall tectonic setting of the area. Its existence implies a northward extent of the intra-Apennine extensional domain and should be considered to address seismic hazard assessments in central Italy.

Earthquakes of 1838 and 1839 in the Slovene Hills (Slovenia)-Međimurje (Croatia) area

Analyses of available data (newspaper reports, historical and church chronicles, chronical earthquake overviews, travel books, monographies, research papers, etc.) on effects of the earthquakes that shook the greater Ormož area at the Slovenian-Croatian border in the 1838 and 1839 revealed that one of them, recorded in a number of regional and global catalogues, is in fact a fake - the earthquake of 26 August 1838 never happened. This error creeped into various reports and studies, and then into many relevant catalogues, so this event should by systematically erased from the catalogues used to estimate seismicity rates in the neighbourhoods of north-western Croatia, north-eastern Slovenia, and south-western Hungary.Regarding the earthquake of 31 July 1838, we used important new sources of information that have not been consulted in any previous study. This made inversion of macroseismic parameters more robust. Our estimates of the macroseismic moment magnitude (Mwm = 4.8) is mostly higher than the values reported in the available catalogues. Reliable information on the effects of the smaller event of 22 March 1839 were found for two localities only, so its epicentre was placed into the town of Ormož where the maximum intensity was observed. Its estimated moment magnitude (Mwm) is close to the median of values found in the six consulted catalogues that listed this event.The macroseismic epicentre of the 1838 earthquake lies close to the junction of surface traces of the Donat strike-slip fault and the reverse Čakovec fault. Based on their assumed geometry and the location of the macroseismic hypocentre, we give slight preference to the Donat fault as the seismogenic source.

An Integrated Multiscale Method for the Characterisation of Active Faults in Offshore Areas. The Case of Sant’Eufemia Gulf (Offshore Calabria, Italy)

Diagnostic morphological features (e.g., rectilinear seafloor scarps) and lateral offsets of the Upper Quaternary deposits are used to infer active faults in offshore areas. Although they deform a significant seafloor region, the active faults are not necessarily capable of producing large earthquakes as they correspond to shallow structures formed in response to local stresses. We present a multiscale approach to reconstruct the structural pattern in offshore areas and distinguish between shallow, non-seismogenic, active faults, and deep blind faults, potentially associated with large seismic moment release. The approach is based on the interpretation of marine seismic reflection data and quantitative morphometric analysis of multibeam bathymetry, and tested on the Sant’Eufemia Gulf (southeastern Tyrrhenian Sea). Data highlights the occurrence of three major tectonic events since the Late Miocene. The first extensional or transtensional phase occurred during the Late Miocene. Since the Early Pliocene, a right-lateral transpressional tectonic event caused the positive inversion of deep (>3 km) tectonic features, and the formation of NE-SW faults in the central sector of the gulf. Also, NNE-SSW to NE-SW trending anticlines (e.g., Maida Ridge) developed in the eastern part of the area. Since the Early Pleistocene (Calabrian), shallow (<1.5 km) NNE-SSW oriented structures formed in a left-lateral transtensional regime. The new results integrated with previous literature indicates that the Late Miocene to Recent transpressional/transtensional structures developed in an ∼E-W oriented main displacement zone that extends from the Sant’Eufemia Gulf to the Squillace Basin (Ionian offshore), and likely represents the upper plate response to a tear fault of the lower plate. The quantitative morphometric analysis of the study area and the bathymetric analysis of the Angitola Canyon indicate that NNE-SSW to NE-SW trending anticlines were negatively reactivated during the last tectonic phase. We also suggest that the deep structure below the Maida Ridge may correspond to the seismogenic source of the large magnitude earthquake that struck the western Calabrian region in 1905. The multiscale approach contributes to understanding the tectonic imprint of active faults from different hierarchical orders and the geometry of seismogenic faults developed in a lithospheric strike-slip zone orthogonal to the Calabrian Arc.

Seismicity Parameters Analysis In Space-Time Distribution For Northeast India.

A complete homogeneous earthquake catalogue is prepared to estimate seismicity parameters and their spatial-temporal variation in nine seismogenic source zones for Northeast India. The value of seismicity parameters like a-value, b-value, and MC value i.e., 7.37, 0.93(± 0.013), and 4.6, respectively have been estimated from the frequency-magnitude distribution. Moreover, the maximum-likelihood method has been utilized to map the spatial variation of the above parameters. The spatial variation of low b-values is dominant in the Indo-Burman Range, the Main Boundary Thrust, and the vicinity of the Sagaing fault. High seismic activity rate has been obtained in the Indo-Burman range as observed from spatial variation of a-value parameter. Furthermore, the return periods and the annual probability of an earthquake have been calculated for each zone. The results of this seismicity parameter provide useful information about the hazard level of a particular zone and further helps in preparing the hazard map of Northeast India.

Joint Interpretation of Geophysical Results and Geological Observations for Detecting Buried Active Faults: The Case of the “Il Lago” Plain (Pettoranello del Molise, Italy)

We report a geophysical study across an active normal fault in the Southern Apennines. The surveyed area is the “Il Lago” Plain (Pettoranello del Molise), at the foot of Mt. Patalecchia (Molise Apennines, Southern Italy), a small tectonic basin filled by Holocene deposits located at the NW termination of the major Quaternary Bojano basin structure. This basin, on the NE flank of the Matese Massif, was the epicentral area of the very strong 26 July, 1805, Sant’Anna earthquake (I0 = X MCS, Mw = 6.7). The “Il Lago” Plain is bordered by a portion of the right-stepping normal fault system bounding the whole Bojano Quaternary basin (28 km long). The seismic source responsible for the 1805 earthquake is regarded as one of the most hazardous structures of the Apennines; however, the position of its NW boundary of this seismic source is debated. Geological, geomorphological and macroseismic data show that some coseismic surface faulting also occurred in correspondence with the border fault of the “Il Lago” Plain. The study of the “Il Lago” Plain subsurface might help to constrain the NW segment boundary of the 1805 seismogenic source, suggesting that it is possibly a capable fault, source for moderate (Mw < 5.5) to strong earthquakes (Mw ≥ 5.5). Therefore, we constrained the geometry of the fault beneath the plain using low-frequency Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) data supported by seismic tomography. Seismic tomography yielded preliminary information on the subsurface structures and the dielectric permittivity of the subsoil. A set of GPR parallel profiles allowed a quick and high-resolution characterization of the lateral extension of the fault, and of its geometry at depth. The result of our study demonstrates the optimal potential of combined seismic and deep GPR surveys for investigating the geometry of buried active normal faults. Moreover, our study could be used for identifying suitable sites for paleoseismic analyses, where record of earthquake surface faulting might be preserved in Holocene lacustrine sedimentary deposits. The present case demonstrates the possibility to detect with high accuracy the complexity of a fault-zone within a basin, inferred by GPR data, not only in its shallower part, but also down to about 100 m depth.

Relationship between seismicity and active faults in Thanh Hoa province detected by local seismic network

Thanh Hoa province belongs to the southwest part of Northwest Vietnam, which is considered a tectonically active region. In the area of Thanh Hoa province, there are three deep-seated tectonic faults, namely Son La-Bim Son, Song Ma, and Sop Cop. As predicted by scientists, these faults are capable of producing credible earthquakes that might be the strongest in the territory of Vietnam. Besides the three main seismogenic sources, in the province, there are other smaller active faults such as Thuong Xuan-Ba Thuoc and Thuong Xuan-Vinh Loc but the relationship of these faults with seismic activity is still rather blurred. This may due to the sparseness of the Vietnamese National Seismic Network which can not record adequately small earthquakes in the area. This paper presents new results of additional monitoring from a local seismic network using 12 Guralp - 6TD broadband seismometers that have been deployed in Thanh Hoa province since November 2009. We found that the Thanh Hoa area is not seismically quiet. The average number of earthquakes recorded by the network has reached 80 - 90 events per year and some of them have magnitude from ML 3.0 to 4.0.By integration of the earthquake epicenters derived from the local network and distribution of active faults, we can detect several earthquakes locating near the three active faults, not only along the main faults but also along its subsidiary faults. We focused on the active faults of Thuong Xuan-Ba Thuoc and Thuong Xuan-Vinh Loc by using the recent results of the gravity, seismic, and magnetotelluric data analyses. Several recorded earthquakes distribute along the two small faults and some of them reach magnitude 3.0 or greater on the ML scale. In this study, the Thuong Xuan-Vinh Loc is recognized as a seismogenic source. To identify seismic hazard potential caused by earthquakes generated from the active faults, segmentation of the Thuong Xuan - Ba Thuoc fault had been done based on geological and geomorphological indications and seismic activity, and then the peak ground acceleration was determined for each fault segment. Besides, a large number of earthquake epicenters do not have a good correlation with a specific fault, especially in the area of Thanh Hoa coastal plain, which is covered by thick layers of Neogene - Quaternary sediment. This shows that there may be hidden active faults in the area which are needed to study further.

Relationship between seismicity and active faults in Thanh Hoa province detected by local seismic network

Thanh Hoa province belongs to the southwest part of Northwest Vietnam, which is considered a tectonically active region. In the area of Thanh Hoa province, there are three deep-seated tectonic faults, namely Son La-Bim Son, Song Ma, and Sop Cop. As predicted by scientists, these faults are capable of producing credible earthquakes that might be the strongest in the territory of Vietnam. Besides the three main seismogenic sources, in the province, there are other smaller active faults such as Thuong Xuan-Ba Thuoc and Thuong Xuan-Vinh Loc but the relationship of these faults with seismic activity is still rather blurred. This may due to the sparseness of the Vietnamese National Seismic Network which can not record adequately small earthquakes in the area. This paper presents new results of additional monitoring from a local seismic network using 12 Guralp - 6TD broadband seismometers that have been deployed in Thanh Hoa province since November 2009. We found that the Thanh Hoa area is not seismically quiet. The average number of earthquakes recorded by the network has reached 80 - 90 events per year and some of them have magnitude from ML 3.0 to 4.0.By integration of the earthquake epicenters derived from the local network and distribution of active faults, we can detect several earthquakes locating near the three active faults, not only along the main faults but also along its subsidiary faults. We focused on the active faults of Thuong Xuan-Ba Thuoc and Thuong Xuan-Vinh Loc by using the recent results of the gravity, seismic, and magnetotelluric data analyses. Several recorded earthquakes distribute along the two small faults and some of them reach magnitude 3.0 or greater on the ML scale. In this study, the Thuong Xuan-Vinh Loc is recognized as a seismogenic source. To identify seismic hazard potential caused by earthquakes generated from the active faults, segmentation of the Thuong Xuan - Ba Thuoc fault had been done based on geological and geomorphological indications and seismic activity, and then the peak ground acceleration was determined for each fault segment. Besides, a large number of earthquake epicenters do not have a good correlation with a specific fault, especially in the area of Thanh Hoa coastal plain, which is covered by thick layers of Neogene - Quaternary sediment. This shows that there may be hidden active faults in the area which are needed to study further.