More Than 40 yr of Potentially Induced Seismicity Close to the San Andreas Fault in San Ardo, Central California

2020 ◽  
Vol 92 (1) ◽  
pp. 187-198
Author(s):  
Thomas H. W. Goebel ◽  
Manoochehr Shirzaei
Keyword(s):  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Surface Deformation ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Stress Transfer ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Spatial Proximity ◽  
Fluid Injection ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Temporal Correlations ◽  
Stress Changes

Abstract Evidence for fluid-injection-induced seismicity is rare in California hydrocarbon basins, despite widespread injection close to seismically active faults. We investigate a potential case of injection-induced earthquakes associated with San Ardo oilfield operations that began in the early 1950s. The largest potentially induced events occurred in 1955 (ML 5.2) and 1985 (Mw 4.5) within ∼6  km from the oilfield. We analyze Synthetic Aperture Radar interferometric images acquired by Sentinel-1A/B satellites between 2016 and 2020 and find surface deformation of up to 1.5  cm/yr, indicating pressure-imbalance in parts of the oilfield. Fluid injection in San Ardo is concentrated within highly permeable rocks directly above the granitic basement at a depth of ∼800  m. Seismicity predominantly occurs along basement faults at 6–13 km depths. Seismicity and wastewater disposal wells are spatially correlated to the north of the oilfield. Temporal correlations are observed over more than 40 yr with correlation coefficients of up to 0.71 for seismicity within a 24 km distance from the oilfield. Such large distances have not previously been observed in California but are similar to the large spatial footprint of injection in Oklahoma. The San Ardo seismicity shows anomalous clustering with earthquakes consistently occurring at close spatial proximity but long interevent times. Similar clustering has previously been reported in California geothermal fields and may be indicative of seismicity driven by long-term, spatially persistent external forcing. The complexity of seismic behavior at San Ardo suggests that multiple processes, such as elastic stress transfer and aseismic slip transients, contribute to the potentially induced earthquakes. The present observations show that fluid-injection operations occur close to seismically active faults in California. Yet, seismicity is predominantly observed on smaller unmapped faults with little observational evidence that large faults are sensitive to induced stress changes.

Multi-phase hydromechanical modeling of induced seismicity: general insights and the case study of the deep geothermal project in St. Gallen, Switzerland

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Zbinden ◽  
Antonio Pio Rinaldi ◽  
Tobias Diehl ◽  
Stefan Wiemer
Keyword(s):  
Fluid Flow ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Gas Flow ◽  
Fluid Injection ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Reservoir Conditions ◽  
Multi Phase ◽  
Phase Fluid

<p>Industrial projects that involve fluid injection into the deep underground (e.g., geothermal energy, wastewater disposal) can induce seismicity, which may jeopardize the acceptance of such geo-energy projects and, in the case of larger induced earthquakes, damage infrastructure and pose a threat to the population. Such earthquakes can occur because fluid injection yields pressure and stress changes in the subsurface, which can reactivate pre-existing faults. Many studies have so far focused on injection into undisturbed reservoir conditions (i.e., hydrostatic pressure and single-phase flow), while only very few studies consider disturbed <em>in-situ</em> conditions including multi-phase fluid flow (i.e., gas and water). Gas flow has been suggested as a trigger mechanism of aftershocks in natural seismic sequences and can play an important role at volcanic sites. In addition, the deep geothermal project in St. Gallen, Switzerland, is a unique case study where an induced seismic sequence occurred almost simultaneously with a gas kick, suggesting that the gas may have affected the induced seismicity.</p><p>Here, we focus on the hydro-mechanical modeling of fluid injection into disturbed reservoir conditions considering multi-phase fluid flow. We couple the fluid flow simulator TOUGH2 with different geomechanical codes to study the effect of gas on induced seismicity in general and in the case of St. Gallen. The results show that overpressurized gas can affect the size and timing of induced earthquakes and that it may have contributed to enhance the induced seismicity in St. Gallen. Our findings can lead to a more detailed understanding of the influence of a gas phase on the induced seismicity.</p>

scholarly journals Pore-pressure diffusion, enhanced by poroelastic stresses, controls induced seismicity in Oklahoma

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (33) ◽  
pp. 16228-16233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guang Zhai ◽  
Manoochehr Shirzaei ◽  
Michael Manga ◽  
Xiaowei Chen
Keyword(s):  
Pore Pressure ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Resource Exploitation ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Seismicity Rate ◽  
Pressure Diffusion ◽  
Stress Changes

Induced seismicity linked to geothermal resource exploitation, hydraulic fracturing, and wastewater disposal is evolving into a global issue because of the increasing energy demand. Moderate to large induced earthquakes, causing widespread hazards, are often related to fluid injection into deep permeable formations that are hydraulically connected to the underlying crystalline basement. Using injection data combined with a physics-based linear poroelastic model and rate-and-state friction law, we compute the changes in crustal stress and seismicity rate in Oklahoma. This model can be used to assess earthquake potential on specific fault segments. The regional magnitude–time distribution of the observed magnitude (M) 3+ earthquakes during 2008–2017 is reproducible and is the same for the 2 optimal, conjugate fault orientations suggested for Oklahoma. At the regional scale, the timing of predicted seismicity rate, as opposed to its pattern and amplitude, is insensitive to hydrogeological and nucleation parameters in Oklahoma. Poroelastic stress changes alone have a small effect on the seismic hazard. However, their addition to pore-pressure changes can increase the seismicity rate by 6-fold and 2-fold for central and western Oklahoma, respectively. The injection-rate reduction in 2016 mitigates the exceedance probability of M5.0 by 22% in western Oklahoma, while that of central Oklahoma remains unchanged. A hypothetical injection shut-in in April 2017 causes the earthquake probability to approach its background level by ∼2025. We conclude that stress perturbation on prestressed faults due to pore-pressure diffusion, enhanced by poroelastic effects, is the primary driver of the induced earthquakes in Oklahoma.

Magnitude Recurrence Relations for Colorado Earthquakes

2002 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne A. Charlie ◽  
Raymond J. Battalora ◽  
Thomas J. Siller ◽  
Donald O. Doehring
Keyword(s):  
Recurrence Relations ◽  
Active Faults ◽  
Geological Survey ◽  
Fluid Injection ◽  
Historical Earthquake ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Probability Of Exceedance ◽  
Maximum Credible Earthquake ◽  
Significant Potential

Colorado has a significant potential for damaging earthquakes. The Colorado Geological Survey has identified 92 potentially active faults. Two faults have documented slip-rates approaching 1 mm per year. Four hundred and seventy-seven Colorado earthquakes have been felt and/or equaled or exceeded magnitude of 2.0 between 1870 and 1996. Eighty-two earthquakes have equaled or exceeded an MMI Scale of V. Colorado's largest historical earthquake, which occurred on 7 November 1882 (8 November UCT), had an estimated magnitude of 6.5 and maximum MMI of VII to VIII. Colorado's maximum credible earthquake has been estimated at 7.5 ML. In this paper we analyze independent earthquakes (foreshocks, aftershocks, and fluid-injection induced earthquakes removed) to develop magnitude-recurrence relations. Analysis of instrumentally measured earthquakes predicts that a 6.5 ML or larger earthquake occurring somewhere in Colorado has a mean recurrence interval of about 420 years. A magnitude 6.6 ML earthquake has a 10 percent Poisson's probability of exceedance in 50 years. A 7.5 ML earthquake has a 2 percent Poisson's probability of exceedance in 50 years. Colorado's magnitude-recurrence (Gutenberg-Richter) relation is log N=2.58−0.80 ML.

Tracking Induced Seismicity in the Fort Worth Basin: A Summary of the 2008–2018 North Texas Earthquake Study Catalog

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (4) ◽  
pp. 1203-1216 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis Quinones ◽  
Heather R. DeShon ◽  
SeongJu Jeong ◽  
Paul Ogwari ◽  
Oner Sufri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Fluid Injection ◽  
Well Log ◽  
Fort Worth ◽  
North Texas ◽  
Wastewater Disposal ◽  
Fort Worth Basin ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Seismic Networks ◽  
Earthquake Sequences

Abstract Since 2008, earthquake sequences within the Fort Worth basin (FWB), north Texas, have been linked to wastewater disposal activities related to unconventional shale‐gas production. The North Texas Earthquake Study (NTXES) catalog (2008–2018), described and included herein, uses a combination of local and regional seismic networks to track significant seismic sequences in the basin. The FWB earthquakes occur along discrete faults that are relatively far apart (>30  km), allowing for more detailed study of individual sequence development. The three largest sequences (magnitude 3.6+) are monitored by local seismic networks (<15  km epicentral distances), whereas basinwide seismicity outside these three sequences is monitored using regional distance stations. A regional 1D velocity model for the FWB reflects basinwide well log, receiver function, and regional crustal structure studies and is modified for the larger individual earthquake sequences using local well‐log and geology data. Here, we present an mb_Lg relationship appropriate for Texas and a basin‐specific ML relationship, both calculated using attenuation curves developed with the NTXES catalog. Analysis of the catalog reveals that the earthquakes generally occur within the Precambrian basement formation along steeply dipping normal faults, and although overall seismicity rates have decreased since 2016, new faults have become active. Between 2006 and 2018, more than 2 billion barrels of fluids were injected into the Ellenburger formation within the FWB. We observe strong spatial and temporal correlations between the earthquake locations and wastewater disposal well locations and injection volumes, implying that fluid injection activities may be the main driving force of seismicity in the basin. In addition, we observe seismicity occurring at greater distances from injection wells (>10  km) over time, implying that far‐field stress changes associated with fluid injection activities may be an important component to understanding the seismic hazard of induced seismicity sequences.

What Governs the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Aftershocks in Mining-Induced Seismicity: Insight into the Influence of Coseismic Static Stress Changes on Seismicity in Kiruna Mine, Sweden

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Kozłowska ◽  
Beata Orlecka-Sikora ◽  
Savka Dineva ◽  
Łukasz Rudziński ◽  
Mirjana Boskovic
Keyword(s):  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
State Model ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Good Tool ◽  
Coulomb Stress Changes ◽  
Mining Induced Seismicity ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Natural Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Strong mining-induced earthquakes are often followed by aftershocks, similar to natural earthquakes. Although the magnitudes of such in-mine aftershocks are not high, they may pose a threat to mining infrastructure, production, and primarily, people working underground. The existing post-earthquake mining procedures usually do not consider any aspects of the physics of the mainshock. This work aims to estimate the rate and distribution of aftershocks following mining-induced seismic events by applying the rate-and-state model of fault friction, which is commonly used in natural earthquake studies. It was found that both the pre-mainshock level of seismicity and the coseismic stress change following the mainshock rupture have strong effects on the aftershock sequence. For mining-induced seismicity, however, we need to additionally account for the constantly changing stress state caused by the ongoing exploitation. Here, we attempt to model the aftershock sequence, its rate, and distribution of two M≈2 events in iron ore Kiruna mine, Sweden. We could appropriately estimate the aftershock sequence for one of the events because both the modeled rate and distribution of aftershocks matched the observed activity; however, the model underestimated the rate of aftershocks for the other event. The results of modeling showed that aftershocks following mining events occur in the areas of pre-mainshock activity influenced by the positive coulomb stress changes, according to the model’s assumptions. However, we also noted that some additional process not incorporated in the rate-and-state model may influence the aftershock sequence. Nevertheless, this type of modeling is a good tool for evaluating the risk areas in mines following a strong seismic event.

scholarly journals Induced seismicity in geologic carbon storage

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Víctor Vilarrasa ◽  
Jesus Carrera ◽  
Sebastià Olivella ◽  
Jonny Rutqvist ◽  
Lyesse Laloui
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Storage ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Public Perception ◽  
Fault Reactivation ◽  
Wellbore Stability ◽  
Rock Properties ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Geologic Carbon Storage ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Injection Formation

Abstract. Geologic carbon storage, as well as other geo-energy applications, such as geothermal energy, seasonal natural gas storage and subsurface energy storage, imply fluid injection/extraction that causes changes in the effective stress field and induces (micro)seismicity. If felt, seismicity has a negative effect on public perception and may jeopardize wellbore stability and damage infrastructure. Thus, induced earthquakes should be minimized to successfully deploy geo-energies. However, the processes that trigger induced seismicity are not fully understood, which translates into a limited forecast ability of current predictive models. We aim at understanding the triggering mechanisms of induced seismicity and to develop methodologies to minimize its occurrence through dimensional and numerical analysis. We find that the properties of the injected fluid, e.g., water or CO2, have a significant effect on pressure buildup evolution and thus, on fracture/fault stability. In addition to pressure changes, the injected fluid usually reaches the injection formation at a lower temperature than that of the rock, inducing rock contraction, thermal stress reduction and stress redistribution around the cooled region. If low-permeable faults cross the injection formation, local stress changes are induced around them which may reduce their stability and eventually cause fault reactivation. To minimize the risk of inducing felt seismicity, we have developed characterization techniques to reduce the uncertainty on rock properties and subsurface heterogeneity both for the screening of injection sites and for the operation of projects. Overall, we contend that felt induced seismicity can be minimized provided that a proper site characterization, monitoring and pressure management are performed.

Induced Seismicity

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 149-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katie M. Keranen ◽  
Matthew Weingarten
Keyword(s):  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Research Directions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Dramatic Rise ◽  
Future Research Directions ◽  
Petroleum Fields

The ability of fluid-generated subsurface stress changes to trigger earthquakes has long been recognized. However, the dramatic rise in the rate of human-induced earthquakes in the past decade has created abundant opportunities to study induced earthquakes and triggering processes. This review briefly summarizes early studies but focuses on results from induced earthquakes during the past 10 years related to fluid injection in petroleum fields. Study of these earthquakes has resulted in insights into physical processes and has identified knowledge gaps and future research directions. Induced earthquakes are challenging to identify using seismological methods, and faults and reefs strongly modulate spatial and temporal patterns of induced seismicity. However, the similarity of induced and natural seismicity provides an effective tool for studying earthquake processes. With continuing development of energy resources, increased interest in carbon sequestration, and construction of large dams, induced seismicity will continue to pose a hazard in coming years.

scholarly journals The role of fault offset in induced seismicity potential

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Vilarrasa ◽  
Francesco Parisio ◽  
Roman Makhnenko ◽  
Haiqing Wu ◽  
Iman Rahimzadeh Kivi
Keyword(s):  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Reservoir Rock ◽  
Fluid Injection ◽  
Low Permeability ◽  
Total Stress ◽  
Element Analysis ◽  
Stress Regime ◽  
Fault Stability ◽  
Stress Changes ◽  
Base Rock

&lt;p&gt;Geological media is envisioned as a strategic resource to store large volumes of CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and mitigate climate change. Geo-energy applications, such as geologic carbon storage, geothermal energy, and subsurface energy storage, involve injection and extraction of fluids that cause pressure diffusion. Pore pressure changes may induce seismicity, especially in faults that intersect the injection formation or are hydraulically connected with it. We numerically study with finite element analysis of coupled hydro-mechanical conditions how fault stability is affected by fluid injection into a porous aquifer that is overlaid and underlain by low permeability clay-rich formations. We model a layered sedimentary basin with alternating soft and low permeability with stiff and high permeability formations and include the crystalline basement at the bottom. Additionally, a low permeability steep fault, whose offset ranges from zero to the reservoir thickness, crosses the system. We consider a normal faulting stress regime typical of extensional environments. Simulation results show that the reservoir pressurization as a result of fluid injection causes significant stress changes around the fault that affect its stability. The stress changes depend on the stiffness of the rock juxtaposed to the pressurized reservoir. If there is no offset, the rock is stiff on both sides of the fault, inducing a homogeneous horizontal total stress increase along the thickness of the reservoir. As a result, the deviatoric stress becomes smaller and the induced seismicity potential is low. As the fault offset increases, some part of the base rock gets juxtaposed to the pressurized reservoir. The soft base rock deforms more than the reservoir rock in response to the reservoir expansion, inducing a lower horizontal total stress. Thus, fault stability reduces when the pressurized reservoir rock is juxtaposed with the softer base rock. This finding shows that the induced seismicity potential may increase with the fault offset.&lt;/p&gt;

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