Short-Term Foreshock and Aftershock Patterns of the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi Earthquake Sequence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yingying Zhang ◽  
Yanru An ◽  
Feng Long ◽  
Gaohua Zhu ◽  
Min Qin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stress Transfer ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Earthquake Sequence ◽  
Double Difference ◽  
Spatiotemporal Evolution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Nearby Region ◽  
Western Yunnan ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Foreshock Activity

Abstract An Ms 6.4 earthquake struck Yangbi County in western Yunnan province, China, on 21 May 2021, causing damage in the nearby region. Intensive foreshock activity started three days before the mainshock, and numerous aftershocks followed along a northwest–southeast-trending right-lateral main rupture fault. Double-difference relocation of the foreshock and aftershock sequence shortly before and after the Ms 6.4 mainshock is conducted using the phase picks from the local seismic network. The focal mechanisms of relatively large foreshocks and aftershocks are also derived. The results not only delineate the ruptured fault geometry during the mainshock but also indicate the mechanism of static stress transfer according to the spatiotemporal evolution of foreshocks. The low background b-values around the mainshock are also consistent with the occurrence of the Yangbi earthquake sequence.

Statistical Monitoring and Early Forecasting of the Earthquake Sequence: Case Studies after the 2019 M 6.4 Searles Valley Earthquake, California

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (4) ◽  
pp. 1781-1798 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yosihiko Ogata ◽  
Takahiro Omi
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Earthquake Sequence ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Probability Forecast ◽  
Background Rate ◽  
High Background

ABSTRACT This study considers the possible implementation of the operational short-term forecasting, and analysis of earthquake occurrences using a real-time hypocenter catalog of ongoing seismic activity, by reviewing case studies of the aftershocks of the Mw 6.4 Searles Valley earthquake that occurred before the Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake. First, the short-term prediction of spatiotemporal activity is required in real time along with the background seismic activity over a wide region to obtain practical probabilities of large earthquakes; snapshots from the continuous forecasts during the Searles Valley and Ridgecrest earthquake sequence are included to monitor the growth and migration of seismic activity over time. We found that the area in and around the rupture zone in southern California had a very high background rate. Second, we need to evaluate whether a first strong earthquake may be the foreshock for a further large earthquake; the rupture region in southern California had one of the highest such probabilities. Third, short-term probability forecast of early aftershocks are much desired despite the difficulties with data acquisition. The aftershock sequence of the Mw 6.4 Searles Valley event was found to significantly increase the probability of a larger earthquake, as seen in the foreshock sequence of the 2016 MJMA 7.4 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake. Finally, detrending the temporal activity of all the aftershocks by stretching and shrinking the ordinary time scale according to the rate given by the Omori–Utsu formula or the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, we observe the spatiotemporal occurrences in which seismicity patterns may be abnormal, such as relative quiescence, relative activation, or migrating activity. Such anomalies should be recorded and listed for the future evaluation of the probability of a possible precursor for a large aftershock or a new rupture nearby. An example of such anomalies in the aftershocks before the Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake is considered.

ETAS-Approach Accounting for Short-Term Incompleteness of Earthquake Catalogs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Hainzl
Keyword(s):  
Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Additional Parameter ◽  
Spatiotemporal Evolution ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Seismicity Rate ◽  
Detection Algorithms ◽  
Estimated Parameters ◽  
Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence ◽  
Aftershock Sequences ◽  
Completeness Magnitude

ABSTRACT The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is a powerful statistical model to explain and forecast the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity. However, its parameter estimation can be strongly biased by catalog deficiencies, particularly short-term incompleteness related to missing events in phases of high-seismic activity. Recent studies have shown that these short-term fluctuations of the completeness magnitude can be explained by the blindness of detection algorithms after earthquakes, preventing the detection of events with a smaller magnitude. Based on this assumption, I derive a direct relation between the true and detectable seismicity rate and magnitude distributions, respectively. These relations only include one additional parameter, the so-called blind time Tb, and lead to a closed-form maximum-likelihood formulation to estimate the ETAS parameters directly accounting for varying completeness. Tests using synthetic simulations show that the true parameters can be resolved from incomplete catalogs. Finally, I apply the new model to California’s most prominent mainshock–aftershock sequences in the last decades. The results show that the model leads to superior fits with Tb decreasing with time, indicating improved detection algorithms. The estimated parameters significantly differ from the estimation with the standard approach, indicating higher b-values and larger trigger potentials than previously thought.

TO STUDY THE EFFECT OF BMV ON P WAVE DISPERSION AND SHORT TERM PROGNOSTIC IMPACT OF P WAVE DISPERSION IN PREDICTION OF CLINICAL OUTCOME AFTER PERCUTANEOUS BALLOON MITRAL VALVULOPLASTY IN PATIENTS WITH MITRAL STENOSIS AND SINUS RHYTHM

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashish Kumar Agarwal ◽  
Daulat Singh Meena ◽  
Vijay Pathak ◽  
Anoop Jain ◽  
Rakesh Kumar Ola
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Outcome ◽  
Right Ventricular ◽  
Wave Dispersion ◽  
Tissue Doppler ◽  
P Wave ◽  
Short Term ◽  
P Wave Dispersion ◽  
Mitral Valvuloplasty ◽  
Percutaneous Balloon ◽  
Before And After

Background: The aim of the present study was to study the effect of percutaneous balloon mitral  valvuloplasty (PBMV) on P wave dispersion and to test the correlation between P-maximum and  P-dispersion to right ventricular function and pulmonary artery pressure before and after PMBV. Also to study the impact of P-maximum and P-wave dispersion on the short term clinical outcome after successful PBMV in patients with mitral stenosis (MS) and sinus rhythm. Methods: 75 patients undergoing PMBV were enrolled in this study. We evaluated P-maximum, P-minimum and P-wave dispersion before and one month and one year after PBMV . We studied the changes in pulmonary arterial pressure (PAP), left atrial (LA) dimension, mitral diastolic gradient, and mitral valve area, in addition to the changes in right ventricular function utilizing tissue Doppler assessment both before and after PMBV, in addition the role of the P-wave dispersion in prediction of late cardiac events. Results: There were significant decrease in mean diastolic gradient, PAP, and LA size and significant improvement in right ventricular tissue Doppler indices after PMBV. Accompany these hemodynamic changes after PMBV. P-maximum and P-wave dispersion were found to be decreased (P < 0.001). Conclusion: Successful PBMV was associated with a decrease in Pmax and PWD. These simple electrocardiographic indices may predict the success of the procedure immediately after PBMV.  The P-maximum and P-wave dispersion changes were correlated with significant impairment of right dysfunction and the degree of pulmonary artery pressure. Keywords: PBMV.PAP,LA

Impact of Michigan’s new opioid prescribing laws on spine surgery patients: analysis of the Michigan Spine Surgery Improvement Collaborative

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Paul Park ◽  
Victor Chang ◽  
Hsueh-Han Yeh ◽  
Jason M. Schwalb ◽  
David R. Nerenz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spine Surgery ◽  
Spinal Surgery ◽  
Readmission Rate ◽  
Rating Scale ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Readmission Rates ◽  
Opioid Prescribing ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact

OBJECTIVEIn 2017, Michigan passed new legislation designed to reduce opioid abuse. This study evaluated the impact of these new restrictive laws on preoperative narcotic use, short-term outcomes, and readmission rates after spinal surgery.METHODSPatient data from 1 year before and 1 year after initiation of the new opioid laws (beginning July 1, 2018) were queried from the Michigan Spine Surgery Improvement Collaborative database. Before and after implementation of the major elements of the new laws, 12,325 and 11,988 patients, respectively, were treated.RESULTSPatients before and after passage of the opioid laws had generally similar demographic and surgical characteristics. Notably, after passage of the opioid laws, the number of patients taking daily narcotics preoperatively decreased from 3783 (48.7%) to 2698 (39.7%; p < 0.0001). Three months postoperatively, there were no differences in minimum clinically important difference (56.0% vs 58.0%, p = 0.1068), numeric rating scale (NRS) score of back pain (3.5 vs 3.4, p = 0.1156), NRS score of leg pain (2.7 vs 2.7, p = 0.3595), satisfaction (84.4% vs 84.7%, p = 0.6852), or 90-day readmission rate (5.8% vs 6.2%, p = 0.3202) between groups. Although there was no difference in readmission rates, pain as a reason for readmission was marginally more common (0.86% vs 1.22%, p = 0.0323).CONCLUSIONSThere was a meaningful decrease in preoperative narcotic use, but notably there was no apparent negative impact on postoperative recovery, patient satisfaction, or short-term outcomes after spinal surgery despite more restrictive opioid prescribing. Although the readmission rate did not significantly increase, pain as a reason for readmission was marginally more frequently observed.

Supplemental Material: Geophysical analysis of the 30 July 1972 Sitka, Alaska, earthquake sequence

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan A. Ochoa Chavez ◽  
Diane Doser
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Sequence ◽  
Double Difference ◽  
Alaska Earthquake

Supplemental Material 1 contains relocated aftershocks of 30 July 1972 sequence. Supplemental Material 2 contains relocation parameters used in double-difference algorithm (HYPODD).<br>

scholarly journals Feasibility and Enjoyment of Exercise Video Games in Older Adults

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 559-559
Author(s):  
Sara Freed ◽  
Briana Sprague ◽  
Lesley Ross
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Video Games ◽  
Game Design ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Xbox Kinect ◽  
Game Developers

Abstract Interventions using exercise video games, or exergames, have shown short-term cognitive and physical benefits to older adults, though long-term effects are less promising. Enjoyment of exergames may promote exergame use after the intervention period, though little work has examined older adults’ views of exergames before and after gameplay experience. We invited 20 older adults between 65 and 84 years of age (M=73.30, SD=5.95) to play two Xbox Kinect games, Just Dance and Kinect Sports Rivals, for twenty minutes. In our presentation, we will present qualitative and quantitative findings of this pilot study, including findings that older adults reported that they were not likely to play similar exergames in the future and that they did not find the exergames to be more fun compared to other ways of exercising. We will discuss implications for game design and research relevant to game developers, manufacturers, and researchers. Part of a symposium sponsored by Technology and Aging Interest Group.

scholarly journals Endoscopically controlled surgery with open hemilaminectomy for the treatment of intradural extramedullary tumors: an operative technique and short-term outcomes of 20 consecutive cases

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaorong Yan ◽  
Huiqing Wang ◽  
Cai Li ◽  
Yuanxiang Lin ◽  
Lin Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surgical Technique ◽  
Spinal Deformity ◽  
Tumor Recurrence ◽  
Clinical Symptoms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Intradural Extramedullary ◽  
Controlled Surgery

Abstract Background To present a surgical technique for the treatment of intradural extramedullary (IDEM) tumors by using endoscopically controlled surgery with open hemilaminectomy technique. Methods In this study, 20 patients with 22 IDEM tumors were enrolled. An endoscopically controlled surgery with open hemilaminectomy was employed to remove the tumors. Data related to clinical symptoms and medical images before and after surgery were collected for perioperative evaluation and follow-up analysis. Results All the tumors in 20 patients were well removed. The clinical symptoms were significantly reduced in all the patients as well. The short-term follow-up data showed that there was no tumor recurrence or spinal deformity. Conclusion The endoscopically controlled surgery with open hemilaminectomy technique provided favorable exposure and satisfactory resection to the IDEM tumors. It may be an effective surgical method for treating IDEM tumors. Larger samples and longer follow-up data are needed to verify its long-term effectiveness.

scholarly journals Psychotropic and pain medication use in individuals with traumatic brain injury—a Swedish total population cohort study of 240 000 persons

2021 ◽  
Vol 92 (5) ◽  
pp. 519-527
Author(s):  
Yasmina Molero ◽  
David James Sharp ◽  
Brian Matthew D'Onofrio ◽  
Henrik Larsson ◽  
Seena Fazel
Keyword(s):  
Traumatic Brain Injury ◽  
Brain Injury ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Medication Use ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Pain Medication ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Pain Medications ◽  
Before And After

ObjectiveTo examine psychotropic and pain medication use in a population-based cohort of individuals with traumatic brain injury (TBI), and compare them with controls from similar backgrounds.MethodsWe assessed Swedish nationwide registers to include all individuals diagnosed with incident TBI between 2006 and 2012 in hospitals or specialist outpatient care. Full siblings never diagnosed with TBI acted as controls. We examined dispensed prescriptions for psychotropic and pain medications for the 12 months before and after the TBI.ResultsWe identified 239 425 individuals with incident TBI, and 199 658 unaffected sibling controls. In the TBI cohort, 36.6% had collected at least one prescription for a psychotropic or pain medication in the 12 months before the TBI. In the 12 months after, medication use increased to 45.0%, an absolute rate increase of 8.4% (p<0.001). The largest post-TBI increases were found for opioids (from 16.3% to 21.6%, p<0.001), and non-opioid pain medications (from 20.3% to 26.6%, p<0.001). The majority of prescriptions were short-term; 20.6% of those prescribed opioids and 37.3% of those with benzodiazepines collected prescriptions for more than 6 months. Increased odds of any psychotropic or pain medication were associated with individuals before (OR: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.59 to 1.65), and after the TBI (OR: 2.30, 95% CI: 2.26 to 2.34) as compared with sibling controls, and ORs were consistently increased for all medication classes.ConclusionHigh rates of psychotropic and pain medications after a TBI suggest that medical follow-up should be routine and review medication use.

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