scholarly journals The role of automatic stabilizers in business cycle: the case of indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-184
Author(s):  
Haryo Kuncoro
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Standard Model ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Discretionary Fiscal Policy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Automatic Stabilizers

TThe use of large fiscal stimulus packages to dampen the impact of Covid-19 recently has raised concerns about the effectiveness of the discretionary fiscal policy. This paper aims at analysing the feasibility of automatic fiscal stabilisers to mitigate economic fluctuations in the case of Indonesia. Using the IMF standard model for quarterly data over the period of 2001(1) to 2019(4), we find that the role of automatic fiscal stabilisers is getting greater both in revenue and spending. This implies that the automatic fiscal stabilisers are feasible as the main fiscal policy instrument for economic stability goals in the future. However, given the existing circumstances, Indonesia has to reform economic, regulatory, and institutional ecosystems in adopting the automatic fiscal stabilisers.

scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 on households´ income in the EU

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vanda Almeida ◽  
Salvador Barrios ◽  
Michael Christl ◽  
Silvia De Poli ◽  
Alberto Tumino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
Income Loss ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Discretionary Fiscal Policy ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

AbstractThis analysis makes use of economic forecasts for 2020 issued by the European Commission in Autumn 2019 and Spring 2020, and of a counterfactual under a no-policy change assumption, to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on EU households´ income. Additionally, our analysis assesses the cushioning effect of discretionary fiscal policy measures taken by the EU Member States. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to affect significantly households’ disposable income in the EU, with lower income households being more severely hit. However, our results show that due to policy intervention, the impact of the crisis is expected to be similar to the one experienced during the 2008–2009 financial crisis. In detail, our results indicate that discretionary fiscal policy measures will play a significant cushioning role, reducing the size of the income loss (from −9.3% to −4.3% for the average equivalised disposable income), its regressivity and mitigating the poverty impact of the pandemic. We conclude that policy interventions are therefore instrumental in cushioning against the impact of the crisis on inequality and poverty.

The Role of UBI in Mitigating the Effects of Psychosocial Stressors: A Review and Proposal

2021 ◽  
pp. 003329412110051
Author(s):  
Rashmi Gupta ◽  
Jemima Jacob ◽  
Gaurav Bansal
Keyword(s):  
Role Stress ◽  
Psychosocial Stressors ◽  
Basic Income ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
The Past ◽  
Individual Outcomes ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact

Psychosocial stressors and social disadvantages contribute to inequalities in opportunities and outcomes. In the current paper, we use an epidemiological perspective and highlight the role stress plays on individuals by reviewing the outcomes of major stressors such as poverty and unemployment. We further analyzed the psychological and physical cost of these stressors and their long-term impact. We examined the role of universal basic income and closely looked at income experiments that were implemented in the past, in terms of their effectiveness in enhancing the community as well as individual outcomes and propose the UBI as a tool for alleviating the impact of these stressors. At a time when a major pandemic (e.g., COVID-19) threatens economic stability and health globally, we believe the UBI is relevant now, more than ever.

Role of Financial Innovations in Proliferation of Economic Instability

2011 ◽  
pp. 56-64
Author(s):  
I. Strelets ◽  
M. Stolbov
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Business Processes ◽  
New Drugs ◽  
Social Progress ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Economic Issues ◽  
Financial Innovations ◽  
Financial Products ◽  
The Impact

The authors consider the impact of financial innovations on the macroeconomic situation. The increasing complexity of financial market instruments is the way to decrease its transparency and, consequently, the overall economic stability. The global crisis of 2008-2009 demonstrated the relevance of this problem. However, the authors believe that the nations can take advantage of new financial products, technologies and business processes if the regulators manage to fully track and timely offset the accompanying risks. It is important that execution of the financial innovations correspond with the structure of the funding companies and banks. It is concluded that adequate regulation of financial innovation will allow better use of their potential in order to address a number of important economic issues. In particular, it may help to accelerate the development and introduction of new drugs, to the implementation of environmental projects, the financing of social progress in the developing countries for achieving the Millennium Goals proclaimed by the UN in 2000.

scholarly journals The Role of Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: are National Automatic Stabilizers Effective?

2008 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 591-610 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Colciago ◽  
Tiziano Ropele ◽  
V. Anton Muscatelli ◽  
Patrizio Tirelli
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Automatic Stabilizers

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic Uncertainty Shock Impact on Macroeconomic Stability in Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 132
Author(s):  
Habtamu Girma DEMIESSIE
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Shock Effect ◽  
Food Transport ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Macroeconomic Stability

This study investigated the impact of COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty shock on the macroeconomic stability in Ethiopia in the short run period. The World Pandemic Uncertainty Index (WPUI) was used a proxy variable to measure COVID-19 Uncertainty shock effect. The pandemic effect on core macroeconomic variables like investment, employment, prices (both food & non-food prices), import, export and fiscal policy indicators was estimated and forecasted using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Model. The role of fiscal policy in mitigating the shock effect of coronavirus pandemic on macroeconomic stability is also investigated. The finding of the study reveals that the COVID-19 impact lasts at least three years to shake the economy of Ethiopia. Given that the Ethiopian economy heavily relies on import to supply the bulk of its consumption and investment goods, COVID-19 uncertainty effect starts as supply chain shock, whose effect transmitted into the domestic economy via international trade channel. The pandemic uncertainty shock effect is also expected to quickly transcend to destabilize the economy via aggregate demand, food & non-food prices, investment, employment and export shocks. The overall impact of COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty shock is interpreted into the economy by resulting under consumption at least in the next three years since 2020. Therefore, the government is expected to enact incentives/policy directions which can boost business confidence. A managed expansionary fiscal policy is found key to promote investment, employment and to stabilize food & non-food prices. A particular role of fiscal policy was identified to stabilizing food, transport and communication prices. The potency of fiscal policies in stabilizing food, transport and communication prices go in line with the prevailing reality in Ethiopia where government has strong hands to control those markets directly and/or indirectly. This suggests market failure featuring COVID-19 time, calling for managed interventions of governments to promote market stabilities. More importantly, price stabilization policies of the government can have spillover effects in boosting aggregate demand by spurring investments (and widening employment opportunities) in transport/logistics, hotel & restaurant, culture & tourism and export sectors in particular.

THE CYCLICALITY OF AUTOMATIC AND DISCRETIONARY FISCAL POLICY: WHAT CAN REAL-TIME DATA TELL US?

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 221-243 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerstin Bernoth ◽  
Andrew Hughes Hallett ◽  
John Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Discretionary Fiscal Policy ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Real Time Data ◽  
True State ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Structural Budget ◽  
Automatic Stabilizers

This paper develops a new methodology for estimating both the automatic and discretionary components of fiscal policy in one reaction function using the differences between real-time and ex post data. Discretionary policy should respond to information available to the policy maker at the time (real-time data), whereas automatic fiscal policy should respond to the true state of the economy at the time (proxied by the final data). We find that the intended discretionary response of fiscal policy to the cycle is counter-cyclical. Our estimates suggest that the automatic stabilizers are at the lower end of the range found in the related literature. This new methodology reduces the risk present in the conventional CAB approach that part of the discretionary actions may be wrongly attributed to automatic stabilizers. In that sense, automatic stabilizers are typically not as strong as usually claimed. This could be of particular use in countries where insufficient data exist to estimate structural budget sensitivities directly.

scholarly journals Fiskalpolitik als antizyklisches Instrument? Eine Betrachtung der Schweiz

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 146-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph A. Schaltegger ◽  
Martin Weder
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Federal Level ◽  
Discretionary Fiscal Policy ◽  
Macroeconomic Effects ◽  
The One ◽  
Automatic Stabilizers

AbstractThis paper examines the stabilizing effects of Swiss fiscal policy. First, we find that the federation adopted a countercyclical fiscal policy in approximately 60% of all periods observed. During recessions, fiscal policy was always countercyclical and therefore helped to stabilize the economy. In case of the cantons, fiscal policy was countercyclical in 55% of all recessions. In recent years, there has been a trend for both the federation and the cantons toward stronger stabilization. Second, the two stabilizing instruments of fiscal policy, automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal policy are compared with each other. Over the last 50 years, automatic stabilizers have been expanded continuously, particularly on the federal level. We find that the impulse of automatic stabilizers is about twice as large as the one of discretionary fiscal policy. Third, macroeconomic effects of Switzerland’s fiscal policy during recessions are examined. Automatic stabilizers have been particularly effective in the cantons whereas the effects of discretionary fiscal policy on economic growth have tended to be weaker.

scholarly journals MANUFACTURING OF THE SIBERIAN FEDERAL DISTRICT REGIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC SAFETY

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 812-823
Author(s):  
M. A. Miller
Keyword(s):  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Manufacturing Industries ◽  
Siberian Federal District ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Scientific Methods ◽  
The Impact

Introduction.The article is devoted to the study of the regional manufacturing industry of the Siberian Federal District from the standpoint of economic security. The purpose of the article is to analyze the manufacturing industries on the basis of the proposed indicators group and in the context of ensuring economic security of the Siberian federal district.Materials and methods.The scientific methods of logic, comparison, as well as the method of the statistical materials’ analysis are used in the research. The analysis of the manufacturing industry was carried out in two groups of indicators:1)            indicators determining the socio-economic importance of the manufacturing industry for the region;2)            indicators of the export potential of the regional manufacturing industries, contributing to the development of the region.Results.The main results of the study are in identifying the regions of the Siberian Federal District, in which the manufacturing industry is the most important component in supporting the development of the region and maintaining its economic security. Moreover, special attention is paid to the contribution of manufacturing industries to the socio-economic stability of the Omsk region.The paper touches upon the theoretical and methodological provisions related to the study of the role of manufacturing industry in the development of the country and its regions and in improvement of methods for assessing regional economic security. The author proposes the group of indicators that allow more accurately reveal the impact of manufacturing industry on the socio-economic condition of the region.Discussion and conclusion. The conducted research allows supplementing the existing scientific directions with the approach, which clarifies the assessment of the manufacturing industry with an analysis of its export potential indicators, in order to expand the comprehensive understanding of the most problematic points of regional development from economic security point of view.

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