scholarly journals Food Security Challenges in Nigeria: A Paradox of Rising Domestic Food Production and Food Import

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
pp. 38-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
G.T. Ahungwa ◽  
U. Haruna ◽  
B.G. Muktar
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
Postharvest Management ◽  
Domestic Food

This paper examined the food security challenges vis-á-vis the paradox of increased domestic food production and food import in Nigeria. The study used time-series data from National Bureau of Statistic, Central Bank of Nigeria, Nigeria’s National Dailies and CIA Factbook reports. The trend analysis showed that the share of agriculture to the total Gross Domestic Product, GDP had a downward trend, especially from 1960-1979, where food import hovered around 2.92 % from 1960-74 and up to 9.85 % in 1975-79 of GDP. The result depicts an undulating trend in the contribution of agriculture and food import values to 2009 where food import rose astronomically from N2.6trillion (3.83 %) in 2005-2009 to about N20.6trillion (25.02 %) in 2010-2012. Results of the regression analysis confirmed that agriculture has a positive relationship with GDP, and contributes significantly with a coefficient of 0.852. The paradox however is that food import negates the a priori expectation as it is found to be positively related to the GDP: as food production increases marginally, food importation increases asymptotically. The paper recommends that reliance on food import could be minimized through increased budgetary allocation to the sector, and improvement in postharvest management practices that have hitherto, aggravated food insecurity in the country.

scholarly journals Determinants of Wheat Consumption, Irrigated Agriculture, and Food Security Challenges in Egypt

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
pp. 696-712
Author(s):  
Lal K. Almas ◽  
Muhammad Usman
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Wheat Varieties ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
Egyptian Government ◽  
Price Demand

Wheat is one of the most widely cultivated cereal crops and consumable staple food globally. Internal production efforts are essential to reduce the ever increasing gap between production and consumption of wheat in Egypt. The production-consumption gap can be reduced through advanced agriculture, innovative wheat varieties, land expansion, bio-saline agriculture, and other water management practices. This research study aims to investigate the determinants of wheat consumption in Egypt, find the price, income, and cross price demand elasticities of wheat. For empirical analysis, the annual time series data from 1961 through 2020 is collected from different sources. The data is analyzed through the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model to investigate the long-run demand determinants of wheat in Egypt. The estimated results indicate the presence of a long-term relationship among determinants of wheat consumption. The results of own price, GDP per capita, and population reveal that wheat is a necessity food. Similarly, the estimates of rice price, corn consumption, and barley consumption indicate that such commodities are substitutes for wheat in Egypt. Based on these estimates, it is suggested that the policy makers in the Egyptian government and all other stakeholders need to concentrate on a comprehensive policy for parallel consumption of wheat, rice, corn, and barley. It is also recommended that the Egyptian government must focus on exploring ways including bio-saline agriculture to increase domestic wheat production to reduce wheat imports, save valuable foreign exchange, and overcome some of the food security challenges in Egypt

scholarly journals Food security and trade policies: evidence from the milk sector case study

2021 ◽  
Vol 123 (13) ◽  
pp. 59-72
Author(s):  
Maria Bruna Zolin ◽  
Danilo Cavapozzi ◽  
Martina Mazzarolo
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Income Elasticity ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Opening ◽  
Urban And Rural Areas

PurposeMilk is one of the most produced, consumed and protected agricultural commodities worldwide. The purpose of this paper is to assess how trade-opening policies can foster food security in the Chinese milk sector.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical evidence proposed in our paper is based on time series data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (2019) and FAOSTAT (2020). Differences in income elasticity between urban and rural areas are estimated by OLS regressions. The data also provide empirical evidence to assess to what extent and to which countries China is resorting to meet its growing demand.FindingsPer-capita milk consumption of Chinese is rising. The authors’ estimates show that milk income elasticity is higher in rural areas. China is also progressively increasing its dependence on imports. Producers who benefit the most are those from countries implementing trade-opening policies.Research limitations/implicationsOther methods could be applied, by way of example, the gravitational model.Practical implicationsTrade agreements and the removal of barriers could be effective responses to protectionist pressures and to food security concerns.Social implicationsThe case examined is of particular interest as it intervenes on food security and safety.Originality/valueThe paper adds value and evidence to the effects of trade on food security in a country with limited and exploited natural resources addressing a health emergency and environmental concerns.

scholarly journals Role of Staple Food Production in Ensuring Food Security in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 38-44
Author(s):  
A. T. Harry ◽  
E. S. Urang ◽  
N. M. Olise
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Staple Food ◽  
Total Import ◽  
The Impact

The study investigated the role of staple food production in ensuring food security. The study investigated role of staple food production in ensuring food security in Nigeria. The objectives of this study are to: determine the impact of staple food production on gross domestic product of crops in Nigeria, investigate the value of government guaranteed agricultural loan to farmers on agricultural production in Nigeria, and examine the value of food import bill on total value of import of Nigeria. The study employed time series data. Data is generated from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the National Bureau of statistics bulletin. The study employed the ordinary least square (OLS) of simple regression. The study conducted both econometric and statistical tests. The empirical results showed R2 value of 0.24,053 and 0.22 for models 1-3 respectively. The three models are rightly signed. The coefficient (β) of 0.1631 (model 1) showed that 100% increase in staple food production would lead to a 16.31% increase in gross domestic production of crops (GDPC). Since the computed t-value of 3.102765 falls outside the critical region of  0.0042, we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternate hypothesis at 5% level of significance. The model 3 test showed that the total import bill (TIMB) was significantly sensitive to variation in the food import bill (β=30.7422). The result confirms that 30.7% of the variation in total import bill was accounted for by the food import bill. Based on the results, the study recommended that emphasis should be placed on one hand and ensuring food security (self-sufficiency) in general.

scholarly journals (A343) Rebuilding Post Conflict Food Security in Liberia

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (S1) ◽  
pp. s96-s97
Author(s):  
T.W. Graham
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Food Supply ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Potable Water ◽  
Food Storage ◽  
Unequal Distribution ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Safe Food ◽  
Domestic Food

Liberia's 14 year civil war destroyed domestic agricultural production, veterinary and agricultural education, extension services and domestic food security. These losses severely limited domestic food production, and basic hygiene and sanitation: potable water, abattoirs, cold chain and food storage were greatly diminished. The average Liberian life expectancy fell from 45.8 in 1990 to 41.8 years presently. The population birth and death rate are two of the highest globally with a resulting population growth rate, of 2.7% per annum; this growth rate requires an immediate and concerted focus on domestic food production to alleviate nutritional inadequacy and hunger, trade imbalances and loss of foreign exchange credits. Food supply nationally is presumed adequate because of importation, though domestic production is inadequate. Unequal distribution precludes food security for all Liberians. Value chain augmentation, enhancing food availability across all sectors of Liberian society and ensuring distribution of a safe food supply needs critical development. Infant mortality remains one of the highest in the world (approximately 160/1000 births), much of which is attributed to food insecurity, food contamination and lack of uniformly available potable water. Recreation of Liberia's public health and food security requires redevelopment of disease monitoring and laboratory diagnostic capability to re-establish safe food production and handling practices across all sectors. This will allow determination of endemic disease burden for the principal livestock species: poultry, sheep, goats, cattle and swine. Creation of a national disease surveillance/monitoring system allows for targeted disease intervention, ensuring vaccination for correct serotypes and most critically prevalent diseases. Creation of community level training and support will target intervention of local diseases, but also allow for national prioritization of diseases. Targeting which are most prevalent or most likely to cause production limiting effects will require periodic surveillance, targeted vaccination, and chemotherapeutic intervention and evaluation of therapeutic success.

scholarly journals Seasonal co-integration: An extention of the Johansen and Schaumburg approach with an exclusion test

2009 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-53
Author(s):  
Ozlem Tasseven
Keyword(s):  
Money Demand ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Series Data ◽  
General Acceptance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Variable Space ◽  
Annual Frequency ◽  
Seasonal Cointegration

In this paper, the Johansen and Schaumburg method for seasonal cointegration has been tried to be applied for testing an a priori hypothesized cointegrating money demand variable space. We aim to provide a comprehensive discussion of the significance of the variables in the long-run context as stationary relationships for both zero and bi-annual frequencies. For this purpose, several restrictions have been used to impose for identification purposes of the relevant vectors. We also touch upon the possibility that most time series data have been subject to the stochastic seasonality as opposed to the general acceptance in empirical papers. Our results employing data from the Turkish economy show that it is not possible to estimate only a single theory-accepted money demand relationship in the long-run variable space for both zero and bi-annual frequences, but we are able to identify different vectors somewhat consistent with theoretical arguments for the annual frequency.

scholarly journals Interest Rates and Foreign Investor Activity in Kenya: Evidence from Nairobi Securities Exchange

2020 ◽  
pp. 75-82
Author(s):  
Loice Koskei
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Foreign Investor ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Treasury Bills ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Deposit Rate

Interest rates play a key role in attracting foreign investor activity in the country. This study investigated the effect of interest rates on foreign investor activity at Nairobi Securities Exchange in Kenya. Monthly data was collected from Nairobi Securities Exchange, Central Bank of Kenya and Kenya National Bureau of Statistics. Time series data for eleven year period spanning from January 2009 to December 2019 was used.  The multiple regression model results disclosed that interest rates as measured by lending rate had a positive and statistically significant effect on foreign investor. Inflation rate results had a negatively but statistically significant effect on foreign investor. The results for exchange rate had a negative but statistically insignificant effect on foreign investor activity. The deposit rate results indicated a negative and statistically significant effect on foreign investor activity implying that commercial banks deposit rate has an effect on foreign investor activity. The results for 91-day treasury bills specified a positive and non-statistically insignificant relationship with foreign investor activity pointing that for 91- day treasury bills do not affect the foreign investor activity at Nairobi securities exchange in Kenya.

scholarly journals An Econometric Validation of Malthusian Theory: Evidence in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-90
Author(s):  
Musa Abdullahi Sakanko ◽  
Joseph David
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Bound Test ◽  
Malthusian Theory

Rising population is an asset, provided, the skills of the workforce are used to the maximum extent. If not appropriately channelized, it can be a liability for a nation. A skilled and hardworking population can emerge as a foundation for a country’s development. This study examines the validity of Malthusian Theory in Nigeria using time series data from 1960 to 2016, employs the ARDL bound test techniques. The result shows that in the long-run, population growth and food production move proportionately, while population growth poses a depleting effect on food production in the short-run, thus validating the incidence of Malthusian impact in Nigerian economy in the short-run. The researcher recommended the government should strategize plans, which will further intensify family planning and birth control measure, compulsory western education and revitalization of the agricultural sector.DOI: 10.150408/sjie.v7i1.6461

scholarly journals THE ERROR TERM IN THE HISTORY OF TIME SERIES ECONOMETRICS

2001 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 424-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duo Qin ◽  
Christopher L. Gilbert
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Series Data ◽  
London School ◽  
Time Series Econometrics ◽  
Cowles Commission ◽  
Modeling Strategy

We argue that many methodological confusions in time-series econometrics may be seen as arising out of ambivalence or confusion about the error terms. Relationships between macroeconomic time series are inexact, and, inevitably, the early econometricians found that any estimated relationship would only fit with errors. Slutsky interpreted these errors as shocks that constitute the motive force behind business cycles. Frisch tried to dissect the errors further into two parts: stimuli, which are analogous to shocks, and nuisance aberrations. However, he failed to provide a statistical framework to make this distinction operational. Haavelmo, and subsequent researchers at the Cowles Commission, saw errors in equations as providing the statistical foundations for econometric models and required that they conform to a priori distributional assumptions specified in structural models of the general equilibrium type, later known as simultaneous-equations models. Because theoretical models were at that time mostly static, the structural modeling strategy relegated the dynamics in time-series data frequently to nuisance, atheoretical complications. Revival of the shock interpretation in theoretical models came about through the rational expectations movement and development of the vector autoregression modeling approach. The so-called London School of Economics dynamic specification approach decomposes the dynamics of the modeled variable into three parts: short-run shocks, disequilibrium shocks, and innovative residuals, with only the first two of these sustaining an economic interpretation.

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