scholarly journals Nonlinear Dependencies And Chaos In The Bilateral Exchange Rate Of The Dollar

2010 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bahram Adrangi ◽  
Mary Allender Allender ◽  
Arjun Chatrath ◽  
Kambiz Raffiee
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Strong Evidence ◽  
Correlation Dimension ◽  
Canadian Dollar ◽  
Swiss Franc ◽  
Nonlinear Dependence ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Bilateral Exchange ◽  
Low Dimension ◽  
Japanese Yen

Employing the daily bilateral exchange rate of the dollar against the Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen, we conduct a battery of tests for the presence of low-dimension chaos.  The three stationary series are subjected to Correlation Dimension tests, BDS tests, and tests for entropy. While we find strong evidence of nonlinear dependence in the data, the evidence is not consistent with chaos.  Our test results indicate that GARCH-type processes explain the nonlinearities in the data.  We also show that employing seasonally adjusted index series enhances the robustness of results via the existing tests for chaotic structure.

scholarly journals The predictive capacity of GARCH-type models in measuring the volatility of crypto and world currencies

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0245904
Author(s):  
Viviane Naimy ◽  
Omar Haddad ◽  
Gema Fernández-Avilés ◽  
Rim El Khoury
Keyword(s):  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Measure ◽  
Canadian Dollar ◽  
Swiss Franc ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Predictive Capacity ◽  
Australian Dollar ◽  
Forecasting Performance ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Japanese Yen

This paper provides a thorough overview and further clarification surrounding the volatility behavior of the major six cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ripple, Litecoin, Monero, Dash and Dogecoin) with respect to world currencies (Euro, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen), the relative performance of diverse GARCH-type specifications namely the SGARCH, IGARCH (1,1), EGARCH (1,1), GJR-GARCH (1,1), APARCH (1,1), TGARCH (1,1) and CGARCH (1,1), and the forecasting performance of the Value at Risk measure. The sampled period extends from October 13th 2015 till November 18th 2019. The findings evidenced the superiority of the IGARCH model, in both the in-sample and the out-of-sample contexts, when it deals with forecasting the volatility of world currencies, namely the British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen. The CGARCH alternative modeled the Euro almost perfectly during both periods. Advanced GARCH models better depicted asymmetries in cryptocurrencies’ volatility and revealed persistence and “intensifying” levels in their volatility. The IGARCH was the best performing model for Monero. As for the remaining cryptocurrencies, the GJR-GARCH model proved to be superior during the in-sample period while the CGARCH and TGARCH specifications were the optimal ones in the out-of-sample interval. The VaR forecasting performance is enhanced with the use of the asymmetric GARCH models. The VaR results provided a very accurate measure in determining the level of downside risk exposing the selected exchange currencies at all confidence levels. However, the outcomes were far from being uniform for the selected cryptocurrencies: convincing for Dash and Dogcoin, acceptable for Litecoin and Monero and unconvincing for Bitcoin and Ripple, where the (optimal) model was not rejected only at the 99% confidence level.

scholarly journals Performance Of Deterministic And Stochastic Trends Models In Forecasting The Behavior Of The Canadian Dollar And The Japanese Yen Against The US Dollar

2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arav Ouandlous
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Canadian Dollar ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Stochastic Trends ◽  
The Us ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Rate Behavior ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Exchange Rate Models ◽  
Japanese Yen

The literature on modeling and forecasting exchange rate behavior shows that complex forecasting exchange rate models do not often outperform ARIMA models. We show that the same forecasting models applied to forecast the behavior of the Canadian dollar and the Japanese Yen against the US dollar produced varying forecast performance.

Intraday analysis of currency ETFs

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 438-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stoyu I. Ivanov
Keyword(s):  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Tracking Error ◽  
Canadian Dollar ◽  
Swiss Franc ◽  
Exchange Traded Funds ◽  
Tracking Errors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Australian Dollar ◽  
Minute Interval ◽  
Japanese Yen

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to find if erosion of value exists in grantor trust structured exchange traded funds. The author examines the performance of six currency exchange traded funds’ tracking errors and pricing deviations on intradaily-one-minute interval basis. All of these exchange traded funds are grantor trusts. The author also studies which metric is of more importance to investors in these exchange traded funds by examining how these performance metrics are related to the exchange traded funds’ arbitrage mechanism. Design/methodology/approach – The Australian Dollar ETF (FXA) is designed to be 100 times the US Dollar (USD) value of the Australian Dollar, the British Pound ETF (FXB) is designed to be 100 times the USD value of the British Pound, the Canadian Dollar ETF (FXC) is designed to be 100 times the USD value of the Canadian Dollar, the Euro ETF (FXE) is designed to be 100 times the USD value of the Euro, the Swiss Franc ETF (FXF) is designed to be 100 times the USD value of the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen ETF (FXY) is designed to be 10,000 times the USD value of the Japanese Yen. The author uses these proportions to estimate pricing deviations. The author uses a moving average model based on an Elton et al. (2002) to estimate if tracking error or pricing deviation are more relevant in ETF arbitrage and thus to investors. Findings – The author documents that the average intradaily tracking errors for the six currency ETFs are relatively small and stable. The tracking errors are highest for the FXF, 0.000311 percent and smallest for FXB, −0.000014 percent. FXB is the only ETF with a negative tracking error. All six ETFs average intradaily pricing deviations are negative with the exception of the FXA pricing deviation which is a positive $0.17; the rest of the ETFs pricing deviations are −0.3778 for FXB, −0.3231 for FXC, −0.2697 for FXC, −0.2697 for FXE, −0.6484 for FXF and −0.9273 for FXY. All exhibit skewness, kurtosis, very high levels of positive autocorrelation and negative trends, which suggests erosion of value. The author also found that these exchange traded funds’ arbitrage mechanism is more closely related to the exchange traded funds’ pricing deviation than tracking error. Research limitations/implications – The paper uses high-frequency one-minute interval data in the analysis of pricing deviation which might be artificially deflating standard errors and thus inflating the t-test significance values. Originality/value – The paper is relevant to ETF investors and contributes to the continuing search in the finance literature of better ETF performance metric.

scholarly journals Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Linear and Nonlinear Regressions?

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guangfeng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Exchange Rate Dynamics ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
Japanese Yen

This paper revisits the association between exchange rates and monetary fundamentals with the focus on both linear and nonlinear approaches. With the monthly data of Euro/US dollar and Japanese yen/US dollar, our linear analysis demonstrates the monetary model is a long-run description of exchange rate movements, and our nonlinear modelling suggests the error correction model describes the short-run adjustment of deviations of exchange rates, and monetary fundamentals are capable of explaining exchange rate dynamics under an unrestricted framework.

scholarly journals Effects of Bilateral Real Exchange Rate on Sino-Nigeria Trade: An ARDL Cointegration Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Julio Felippe Bicudo ◽  
Nnanna P. Azu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Bilateral Exchange ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rate Fluctuation ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Negative Role ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
Negative Balance

This research is motivated to scrutinise the effects of real bilateral exchange rate fluctuation on China-Nigeria bilateral trade, taking into consideration volatility and third country’s bilateral exchange rate effect to determine their consequences. Due to its robustness in time series analyses, an ARDL approach to co-integration was used to determine the long-and short-runs effects. Both export and import were considered separately. Outcome revealed that Nigeria’s import from China responds negatively to real bilateral exchange rate increase just as it does to its volatility. Her export to China reacts positively on both front, most especially in the short-run. Japan was integrated as a third country in this research due to her competing presence in Nigerian market. Third country’s real bilateral exchange rate play prominent but negative role in China-Nigeria trade, and is mostly effective in the long-run. With the absolute value of the co-efficient of real bilateral exchange rate greater than one, depreciating the Naira against the Renminbi will tend to ameliorate the negative balance of trade Nigeria has with China. Finally, democratic regime was found to be very essential in enhancing international business.

scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting Gold Prices

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richmond Sam-Quarm ◽  
Mohamed Osman Elamin Busharads
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Open Interest ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Japanese Yen

The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons of gold price volatility. It analyses the information function of the gold future market by open interest contracts as speculation effect, and further fundamental factors including inflation, Chinese yuan per dollar, Japanese yen per dollar, dollar per euro, interest rate, oil price, and stock price, in the short-run. The study proceeds to build a Dynamic OLS model for long-run equilibrium to produce reliable gold price forecasts using the following variables: gold demand, gold supply, inflation, USD/SDR exchange rate, speculation, interest rate, oil price, and stock prices. Findings prove that in the short-run, changes in gold price does granger cause changes in open interest, and changes in Japanese yen per dollar does granger cause changes in gold price. However, in the long-run, the results prove that gold demand, gold supply, USD/SDR exchange rate, inflation, speculation, interest rate, and oil price are associated in a long-run relationship.References

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