scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting Gold Prices

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richmond Sam-Quarm ◽  
Mohamed Osman Elamin Busharads
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Open Interest ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Japanese Yen

The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons of gold price volatility. It analyses the information function of the gold future market by open interest contracts as speculation effect, and further fundamental factors including inflation, Chinese yuan per dollar, Japanese yen per dollar, dollar per euro, interest rate, oil price, and stock price, in the short-run. The study proceeds to build a Dynamic OLS model for long-run equilibrium to produce reliable gold price forecasts using the following variables: gold demand, gold supply, inflation, USD/SDR exchange rate, speculation, interest rate, oil price, and stock prices. Findings prove that in the short-run, changes in gold price does granger cause changes in open interest, and changes in Japanese yen per dollar does granger cause changes in gold price. However, in the long-run, the results prove that gold demand, gold supply, USD/SDR exchange rate, inflation, speculation, interest rate, and oil price are associated in a long-run relationship.References

scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting Gold Prices

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richmond Sam Quarm ◽  
Mohamed Osman Elamin Busharads
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Open Interest ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Japanese Yen

The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons of gold price volatility. It analyses the information function of the gold future market by open interest contracts as speculation effect, and further fundamental factors including inflation, Chinese yuan per dollar, Japanese yen per dollar, dollar per euro, interest rate, oil price, and stock price, in the short-run. The study proceeds to build a Dynamic OLS model for long-run equilibrium to produce reliable gold price forecasts using the following variables: gold demand, gold supply, inflation, USD/SDR exchange rate, speculation, interest rate, oil price, and stock prices. Findings prove that in the short-run, changes in gold price does granger cause changes in open interest, and changes in Japanese yen per dollar does granger cause changes in gold price. However, in the long-run, the results prove that gold demand, gold supply, USD/SDR exchange rate, inflation, speculation, interest rate, and oil price are associated in a long-run relationship.

scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting Gold Prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Latifa Ghalayini ◽  
◽  
Sara Farhat
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Open Interest ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Japanese Yen

The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons of gold price volatility. It analyses the information function of the gold future market by open interest contracts as speculation effect, and further fundamental factors including inflation, Chinese yuan per dollar, Japanese yen per dollar, dollar per euro, interest rate, oil price, and stock price, in the short-run. The study proceeds to build a Dynamic OLS model for long-run equilibrium to produce reliable gold price forecasts using the following variables: gold demand, gold supply, inflation, USD/SDR exchange rate, speculation, interest rate, oil price, and stock prices. Findings prove that in the short-run, changes in gold price does granger cause changes in open interest, and changes in Japanese yen per dollar does granger cause changes in gold price. However, in the long-run, the results prove that gold demand, gold supply, USD/SDR exchange rate, inflation, speculation, interest rate, and oil price are associated in a long-run relationship.

scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting Gold Prices

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Farhat ◽  
Latifa Ghalayini
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Open Interest ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Japanese Yen

Abstract The aim of this paper is to explore the reasons of gold price volatility. It analyses the information function of the gold future market by open interest contracts as speculation effect, and further fundamental factors including inflation, Chinese Yuan per dollar, Japanese Yen per dollar, dollar per euro, interest rate, oil price, and stock price, in the short-run. The study proceeds to build a Dynamic OLS model for long-run equilibrium to produce reliable gold price forecasts using the following variables: gold demand, gold supply, inflation, USD/SDR exchange rate, speculation, interest rate, oil price, and stock prices. Findings prove that in the short-run, changes in gold price does granger cause changes in open interest, and changes in Japanese Yen per dollar does granger cause changes in gold price. However, in the long-run, the results prove that gold demand, gold supply, USD/SDR exchange rate, inflation, speculation, interest rate, and oil price are associated in a long-run relationship.

scholarly journals Efek Kebijakan Moneter Terhadap Return Harga Emas Di Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Khaliq
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

<p><em>This studyobserves the short-run and long-run relationship between monetary </em><em>policies </em><em>and</em><em>g</em><em>old </em><em>p</em><em>rice </em><em>return </em><em>movements in Indonesia. Using monthly data over the period 1997M0</em><em>9</em><em>-201</em><em>7</em><em>M10,the empirical findings are carried out by utilizing error correction model (ECM)derived from single quadratic cost function to provide evidence in favor of relationship between nominal effective exchange rate, interest rate, </em><em>and </em><em>money</em><em> supply</em><em>and gold</em><em> price return</em><em> movements.The empirical evidence suggests that the ECM estimates well characterize how the nominal effective exchange rate relates to the gold price</em><em> return</em><em> movements, both in the long-run and short-run. Moreover, money</em><em> supply and </em><em>interest rate only have </em><em>negative </em><em>and statistically significant effects on price gold </em><em>return </em><em>movements in the long run. T</em><em>hese results imply that observing nominal effective exchange rate can help predict gold price </em><em>return </em><em>movements in Indonesia, which would significantly help monetary authorities in optimizing </em><em>monetary policy</em><em>.</em></p><p><em>Keywords    : Gold Price</em><em> Return</em><em>, Monetary </em><em>Policies</em><em>, Error Correction Model (ECM)</em></p>

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

scholarly journals Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Linear and Nonlinear Regressions?

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guangfeng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Exchange Rate Dynamics ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear ◽  
Japanese Yen

This paper revisits the association between exchange rates and monetary fundamentals with the focus on both linear and nonlinear approaches. With the monthly data of Euro/US dollar and Japanese yen/US dollar, our linear analysis demonstrates the monetary model is a long-run description of exchange rate movements, and our nonlinear modelling suggests the error correction model describes the short-run adjustment of deviations of exchange rates, and monetary fundamentals are capable of explaining exchange rate dynamics under an unrestricted framework.

scholarly journals Econometric Analysis of Determinants of Real Effective Exchange Rate in Nigeria (1960-2015)

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waheed Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Abstract This study investigates the determinants of real effective exchange rate in Nigeria for the period between 1960 and 2015 using the vector error correction mechanism to separate long run from the short run fundamentals. The findings from the regression estimates revealed that; terms of trade, openness of the economy, net capital inflow and total government expenditure were the major long run determinants of real effective exchange rate in the country while variables such as; broad money supply (M2), nominal effective exchange rate, structural adjustment program dummy, June 12 crisis and change to civil rule dummies were revealed as the major short run determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria between 1960 and 2015. The study concludes by recommending that since the major variable of terms of trade (crude oil price) is out of the government control, the effect of shocks due to the fluctuations of crude oil price can be minimized by shifting the economy from a mono-product nation and diversify the economy to increase productive capacity. Also, the change to civil rule dummy used in the study revealed that the system has not been friendly with the country’s real effective exchange rate, thus needing to review the system and bringing out all negative activities there in to ensure Nigeria’s currency appreciation. Guided openness is also suggested to avert the danger that unguided trade liberalization may bring into the country.

scholarly journals EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS ON EXPORT OF SOME SELECTED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN EMERGING AFRICAN COUNTRIES

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-112
Author(s):  
E. A. OLUBIYI ◽  
F. KOLADE ◽  
D. A. DAIRO
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Exchange Rate Movement ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movement on export of five selected agricultural products, in five emerging countries in Africa. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method was employed to analyse the data spanning 1995 to 2015. It was found that, in the short run, exchange rate has a mixed effect on the product across countries, that is, in some products and countries, exchange rate affects export positively, while in some countries and product exchange rate movement has a negative effect on export.  Further, exchange rate does not have long run effect on sugar and fruits and nuts in most of the countries.  Consequently, it is recommended that government, in countries where exchange rate depreciation increases export, should maintain depreciation. Further, there should be provision of adequate infrastructure that will enhance agricultural production.   In the same vein, interest rate on loans given to farmers should be minimal, so as to encourage borrowing to finance agricultural production.  This recommendation is mostly relevant to countries where interest rate affects export negatively.    

scholarly journals Bank Performance versus Recession Indicators: A Linear Cointegration Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 8-15
Author(s):  
Ashamu Sikiru Oyerinde
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Sample Size ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Rate Increase ◽  
Bank Performance ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Increase With Increase ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

In this study, the researcher provides an empirical investigation of the nexus between banks’ performance and recession indicators. A sample size of 35 years was selected on annual data. A linear cointegration method was adopted after accounting for seasonality through logarithmic transformation. The results revealed that indicators of recession-exchange rate, inflation and interest rate maintain long run relationship with bank performance, and evidence of long run influence was established. Furthermore, we discover that within the purview of short run dynamic situation, inflation influences banks’ performance inversely, while exchange rate and interest rate increase with increase in banks’ performance. We therefore conclude that banks’ performance is driven by indicators of recession both in the short and in long run.

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