Urban Sprawl: Scenario Analyses For Public Policy - Makers
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 34.2pt 0pt 0.5in;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 10pt;">This paper examines the likely effects of public-policy on residential development in the Wappinger Creek Watershed within Dutchess County in the Hudson River Valley of New York State.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An econometric model is used in combination with Monte Carlo simulation to project residential development in a spatial format using a Geographic Information System (GIS).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>GIS was used to extract data with bio-geophysical attributes, such as slope, soil, and location characteristics, to project growth trends for residential use of undeveloped land parcels due to changes in public policy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Detailed scenarios present stakeholders the economic, social, and environmental implications of a possible course of action.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The results indicate that public-policy can be effectively used to counteract the effects of urban sprawl and increased population.</span></p>