scholarly journals Detecting Weak Signals for the Future of Poultry Farms

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Griol Israel Barres
Keyword(s):  
Weak Signals ◽  
Poultry Farms ◽  
The Future

Wildcards – natural and artificial: the combination of a panel of experts and Fuzzy TOPSIS

foresight ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Mohammadi ◽  
Mohammad Rahim Eivazi ◽  
Jafar Sajjadi
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Fuzzy Topsis ◽  
New Method ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Participatory Foresight ◽  
The Future ◽  
Similar Character ◽  
Topsis Model

Purpose The purpose of this paper is threefold: to classify wildcards into three particular types sharing similar characteristics; use the Fuzzy TOPSIS as a new method in foresight to turn qualitative ideas into quantitative ones; and apply a combination of Fuzzy TOPSIS and a panel of experts to prioritize weak signals. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the authors classify wildcards into three particular types which share similar character: natural wildcards, artificial wildcards (Degree 1) and artificial wildcards (Degree 2). Wildcards point to unexpected and surprising events including important results that can form watershed in the development of a specific trend. In addition, the authors present a Fuzzy TOPSIS model which can be used in various cases to prioritize a number of weak signals and put them in order, so that the most important ones are likely to yield the wildcard in the future Findings The authors presented a classification of wildcards with the same characteristics being natural wildcards, artificial wildcards (Degree 1) and artificial wildcards (Degree 2). The authors also prioritized the weak signals to deal with the most important ones and take appropriate action in advance so as to minimize possible damages and maximize the benefits of potential wildcards in an uncertain environment. Originality/value In this paper, the authors report on the prioritizing of weak signals by applying Fuzzy TOPSIS and classify wildcards. This is significant because, by identifying the most important weak signals, appropriate actions can be taken in the future if necessary. The paper should be of interest to readers in the area of participatory foresight.

scholarly journals Detecting Weak Signals of the Future: A System Implementation Based on Text Mining and Natural Language Processing

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (19) ◽  
pp. 7848 ◽  
Author(s):  
Israel Griol-Barres ◽  
Sergio Milla ◽  
Antonio Cebrián ◽  
Huaan Fan ◽  
Jose Millet
Keyword(s):  
Natural Language Processing ◽  
Text Mining ◽  
Natural Language ◽  
Language Processing ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
Remote Sensors ◽  
The Future ◽  
Increasing Demand ◽  
New Applications ◽  
Start Ups

Organizations, companies and start-ups need to cope with constant changes on the market which are difficult to predict. Therefore, the development of new systems to detect significant future changes is vital to make correct decisions in an organization and to discover new opportunities. A system based on business intelligence techniques is proposed to detect weak signals, that are related to future transcendental changes. While most known solutions are based on the use of structured data, the proposed system quantitatively detects these signals using heterogeneous and unstructured information from scientific, journalistic and social sources, applying text mining to analyze the documents and natural language processing to extract accurate results. The main contributions are that the system has been designed for any field, using different input datasets of documents, and with an automatic classification of categories for the detected keywords. In this research paper, results from the future of remote sensors are presented. Remote sensing services are providing new applications in observation and analysis of information remotely. This market is projected to witness a significant growth due to the increasing demand for services in commercial and defense industries. The system has obtained promising results, evaluated with two different methodologies, to help experts in the decision-making process and to discover new trends and opportunities.

scholarly journals The Future of Ownership: A Disruptive Scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amir-reza Asadi
Keyword(s):  
Short Story ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Sharing Economy ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
Horizon Scanning ◽  
Virtual Economy ◽  
The Future

<p>During thousands of years, ownership was an essential aspiration for humankind, but there are signs that this is changing. This research is studying the disruptive tech-driven businesses which change our attitude toward the ownership. The Horizon Scanning is to identify the weak signals which indicate the disruption in how and what people possess. Analysis of collected articles alluded to the growth of subscription/sharing economy, virtual economy, and tokenization, being recognized as the weak signals which shape the future of ownership. According to these signals, Futures Wheel sessions were conducted to explore the consequences of signals in real life. The final scenario developed in the form of a short story, and it coalesces the hypergrowth of the mentioned signals. </p>

Water resources – an analysis of trends, weak signals and wild cards with implications for Russia

foresight ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 152-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ozcan Saritas ◽  
Liliana N. Proskuryakova
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Sector ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Russian Water ◽  
The Future ◽  
Wild Cards

Purpose This paper focuses on the long-term situation with water resources, and water sector in particular, analyzed through a Foresight study. The authors attribute particular attention to implication for Russia, which is relatively better positioned regarding the availability of water resources. However, the country still faces challenges related to the protection of water resources, drinking water supply, water networks, consumption patterns, water discharge, treatment and re-use. The present study aims at identification and analysis of trends, factors and uncertainties in water supply, demand, use and re-use with a particular focus on sustainability of water systems; water use by households and industry; and new water services and products. Design/methodology/approach Research methodology in this paper involves a horizon scanning exercise for the identification of the key trends, factors and uncertainties along with the identification of weak signals of future emerging trends and wild cards in the form of future surprises, shocks and other unexpected events that may disrupt the preservation of water resources and the future of the water sector. Trends characterize broad parameters for shifts in attitudes, climate, policies and business focus over periods of several years that usually have global reach. These are usually experienced by everyone and often in similar contexts. Trends may represent threats, opportunities or a mixture of them, identified through underlying processes, possible events and other future developments. Findings A key systemic restriction of water use for the next decades both globally and in Russia relates to competition between agriculture, energy, manufacturing and household water use. Given that the amount of renewable water resources is almost fixed and even decreases because of pollution, circular economy solutions for water use will be required. Implications of the global trends identified in the study for Russia are dependent on the overall situation with water resources in the country. Russia has sufficient water supply: the overall intake of water for drinking and economic purposes in Russia amounts to 3 per cent of the total water resources, two-thirds of which are discarded back to water bodies. At the same time, there are substantial problems associated with the extremely uneven distribution of water resources across the country, as well as high “water intensity” of the Russian GDP. The Russian water sector is currently not very attractive for investors. Moreover, it has significantly less lobbying opportunities than other infrastructure sectors, and this complicates its institutional and financial positions. Meanwhile, there have been some positive changes with regard to activities with a short pay-off period. Originality/value The paper offers one of the first studies on the future of Russian water resources with a focus on the water supply and sanitation sector. A comprehensive approach to trends identification (not found in other studies on Russian water resources) allowed authors to identify social, technological, environmental, economic, policy and value-related global trends and uncertainties. Moreover, implications of these trends and uncertainties, as well as Russia-specific trends, were outlined.

Scenariusze rozwoju i bezpieczeństwa makroekonomicznego państw Inicjatywy Trójmorza od czasu COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 171-199
Author(s):  
Marta Gębska
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
The Future ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Wild Cards ◽  
The Will ◽  
Research Grant

The aim of the article is to present the results of research on the effects of the coronavirus COVID-19 on the economies of the Three Seas Initiative countries and to try to answer the question about the future of the Initiative. It was assumed that the development and future of this initiative, which is still shaping its identity, and the possibility of achieving its goals, will depend on the economic possibilities of the states that make it up and the decisions made by the heads of states. The analysis was based on the latest macroeconomic statistical data published by Eurostat and the IMF, concerning: GDP, industrial production, budget deficit, public debt, unemployment and inflation. The article outlines the genesis of the Three Seas Initiative and its goals, in order to explain its essence and assumptions. In order to assess the development possibilities of the Three Seas Initiative countries and forecast their economic security in the context of COVID-19, a simplified forecasting method was used, prepared by a team of researchers in a research grant, consisting in distinguishing global megatrends, the socalled wild cards, weak signals, and based on them, possible scenarios were created. They include a forecast of changes in macroeconomic indicators in the context of megatrends and conclusions on the future of the initiative. The scale of the virus’s destruction and its impact on the macroeconomic security of countries will depend on the number and intensity of successive waves of the pandemic, and on the degree of reveal of unfavourable phenomena (wild cards) and the intensity of phenomena currently observed in the form of weak signals. The political will of the leaders of states and the European Union to respect the debt limits set out in the Maastricht Treaty, as well as the will and real possibilities of launching development investments will also be important.

Weak Signals and Wild Cards Leading to Transformative Disruption: A Consumer Delphi Study on the Future of e-Commerce in China

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan Qi ◽  
Petri Tapio
Keyword(s):  
Delphi Study ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative Methods ◽  
Horizon Scanning ◽  
The Future ◽  
Wild Cards

The future of businesses is not only orchestrated by emerging trends and megatrends but also to a greater extent struck by surprising events. With the accelerating presence of high-tech innovations and smart technologies, business activities are exposed to an increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous environment. Any unexpected changes in the environment could lead to the malfunction or even collapse of a company, a business, or even an industry. Discerning the seeds of change and anticipating the potential disruptions in the external environment is a precondition for avoiding potential risks and threats. The present study contributes to the conceptual and methodological discussion of disruptive transformation by identifying, analyzing, and interpreting the potential disruptive factors in the external business environment. The venture is undertaken through the lens of probing into the dynamism of China’s e-commerce industry, considering its growing influence both domestically and abroad. Any unexpected disruptions would result in a significant ripple effect on interrelated businesses, industries, and even economies. The research adopts a combined mode of qualitative and quantitative methods in the form of horizon scanning and a Consumer Delphi study. Horizon scanning collects futures signals indicating the seeds of change (i.e., weak signals) and potential disruptions (i.e., wild cards), whereas Delphi study solicits the evaluations on the degree of likelihood and impact of the collected factors from an expert panel. As a result, twenty-seven potential disruptive factors are discovered, categorized, estimated, and discussed.

scholarly journals The Future of Ownership: A Disruptive Scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amir-reza Asadi
Keyword(s):  
Short Story ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Sharing Economy ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
Horizon Scanning ◽  
Virtual Economy ◽  
The Future

<p>During thousands of years, ownership was an essential aspiration for humankind, but there are signs that this is changing. This research is studying the disruptive tech-driven businesses which change our attitude toward the ownership. The Horizon Scanning is to identify the weak signals which indicate the disruption in how and what people possess. Analysis of collected articles alluded to the growth of subscription/sharing economy, virtual economy, and tokenization, being recognized as the weak signals which shape the future of ownership. According to these signals, Futures Wheel sessions were conducted to explore the consequences of signals in real life. The final scenario developed in the form of a short story, and it coalesces the hypergrowth of the mentioned signals. </p>

scholarly journals Exploring Weak Signals and Wild Cards in the Water Services

2015 ◽  
Vol 07 (2) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Water Services ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
The Future ◽  
Wild Cards

This paper describes a study that was conducted to assess weak signals and wild cards in the case of water services. It is argued that the potential of this approach lies in the practical application, not in scientific strict methodology and rigid interpretations of what weak signals and wild cards are. Thinking about weak signals and wild cards can be an essential part in strategic long-term thinking, help think differently, and in this way contribute to the future sustainability of water services.

scholarly journals Weak Signals on the Future of Mobile Commerce in Russia

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ozcan Saritas ◽  
Leonid Gokhberg ◽  
Pavel Bakhtin ◽  
Ilya Kuzminov
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Commerce ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
The Future
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