Scenariusze rozwoju i bezpieczeństwa makroekonomicznego państw Inicjatywy Trójmorza od czasu COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 171-199
Author(s):  
Marta Gębska
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
The Future ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Wild Cards ◽  
The Will ◽  
Research Grant

The aim of the article is to present the results of research on the effects of the coronavirus COVID-19 on the economies of the Three Seas Initiative countries and to try to answer the question about the future of the Initiative. It was assumed that the development and future of this initiative, which is still shaping its identity, and the possibility of achieving its goals, will depend on the economic possibilities of the states that make it up and the decisions made by the heads of states. The analysis was based on the latest macroeconomic statistical data published by Eurostat and the IMF, concerning: GDP, industrial production, budget deficit, public debt, unemployment and inflation. The article outlines the genesis of the Three Seas Initiative and its goals, in order to explain its essence and assumptions. In order to assess the development possibilities of the Three Seas Initiative countries and forecast their economic security in the context of COVID-19, a simplified forecasting method was used, prepared by a team of researchers in a research grant, consisting in distinguishing global megatrends, the socalled wild cards, weak signals, and based on them, possible scenarios were created. They include a forecast of changes in macroeconomic indicators in the context of megatrends and conclusions on the future of the initiative. The scale of the virus’s destruction and its impact on the macroeconomic security of countries will depend on the number and intensity of successive waves of the pandemic, and on the degree of reveal of unfavourable phenomena (wild cards) and the intensity of phenomena currently observed in the form of weak signals. The political will of the leaders of states and the European Union to respect the debt limits set out in the Maastricht Treaty, as well as the will and real possibilities of launching development investments will also be important.

scholarly journals General Government Debt and Budget Deficit as Threats to Economic Security of the European Union Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-67
Author(s):  
Grzegorz Górniewicz
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Union Member ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Statistical Data Analysis ◽  
General Government ◽  
European Union Member States

Abstract The aim of the article is to present budget deficit and government debt in the European Union member states, with particular consideration of the countries that belong to the PIIGS group. This paper has focused on the scale of these phenomena, on their reasons and on some attempts made to improve the unfavourable situation. In the main thesis presented in the article, it is stated that budget deficit and general government debt come as significant threats to economic security of the European Union (EU) countries. The research methods that have been applied in the study involve descriptive analysis and statistical data analysis.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICS OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE CONDITIONS OF A CHANGING SOCIO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

New Medit ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 15-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augustin Ignatov
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative Methods ◽  
Political Interests ◽  
The Future ◽  
Present World

The speed the present world changes, is at least impressive. During the last decade the global socio-economic environment faced major adjustments dictated by globalisation, technological progress and political interests. The European Union seems to fail in keeping up with the changing environment. Thus, if in 2007 the European Union represented 30.7% of the global nominal GDP, then in 2016 it accounted only for 21.7% (World Bank). The economic positions of the European Union have declined much as compared to the rest of the world the fact which inevitably leads to the decrease of the community’s political and economic strength. The main scope of the present paper is to assess the extent to which the economic security of the European Union has changed in the period of 2007-2017. At the same time, it has been proposed to identify the main subversive factors which affected the economic security of the European Union in the period of 2007-2017 and threaten the future perspectives of the Union. The results reached by the use of both qualitative and quantitative methods of analysis explicitly point out that economic security is decreasing and the identified threats menace the future existence of the European Union.

Water resources – an analysis of trends, weak signals and wild cards with implications for Russia

foresight ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 152-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ozcan Saritas ◽  
Liliana N. Proskuryakova
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Sector ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Russian Water ◽  
The Future ◽  
Wild Cards

Purpose This paper focuses on the long-term situation with water resources, and water sector in particular, analyzed through a Foresight study. The authors attribute particular attention to implication for Russia, which is relatively better positioned regarding the availability of water resources. However, the country still faces challenges related to the protection of water resources, drinking water supply, water networks, consumption patterns, water discharge, treatment and re-use. The present study aims at identification and analysis of trends, factors and uncertainties in water supply, demand, use and re-use with a particular focus on sustainability of water systems; water use by households and industry; and new water services and products. Design/methodology/approach Research methodology in this paper involves a horizon scanning exercise for the identification of the key trends, factors and uncertainties along with the identification of weak signals of future emerging trends and wild cards in the form of future surprises, shocks and other unexpected events that may disrupt the preservation of water resources and the future of the water sector. Trends characterize broad parameters for shifts in attitudes, climate, policies and business focus over periods of several years that usually have global reach. These are usually experienced by everyone and often in similar contexts. Trends may represent threats, opportunities or a mixture of them, identified through underlying processes, possible events and other future developments. Findings A key systemic restriction of water use for the next decades both globally and in Russia relates to competition between agriculture, energy, manufacturing and household water use. Given that the amount of renewable water resources is almost fixed and even decreases because of pollution, circular economy solutions for water use will be required. Implications of the global trends identified in the study for Russia are dependent on the overall situation with water resources in the country. Russia has sufficient water supply: the overall intake of water for drinking and economic purposes in Russia amounts to 3 per cent of the total water resources, two-thirds of which are discarded back to water bodies. At the same time, there are substantial problems associated with the extremely uneven distribution of water resources across the country, as well as high “water intensity” of the Russian GDP. The Russian water sector is currently not very attractive for investors. Moreover, it has significantly less lobbying opportunities than other infrastructure sectors, and this complicates its institutional and financial positions. Meanwhile, there have been some positive changes with regard to activities with a short pay-off period. Originality/value The paper offers one of the first studies on the future of Russian water resources with a focus on the water supply and sanitation sector. A comprehensive approach to trends identification (not found in other studies on Russian water resources) allowed authors to identify social, technological, environmental, economic, policy and value-related global trends and uncertainties. Moreover, implications of these trends and uncertainties, as well as Russia-specific trends, were outlined.

Weak Signals and Wild Cards Leading to Transformative Disruption: A Consumer Delphi Study on the Future of e-Commerce in China

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan Qi ◽  
Petri Tapio
Keyword(s):  
Delphi Study ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative Methods ◽  
Horizon Scanning ◽  
The Future ◽  
Wild Cards

The future of businesses is not only orchestrated by emerging trends and megatrends but also to a greater extent struck by surprising events. With the accelerating presence of high-tech innovations and smart technologies, business activities are exposed to an increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous environment. Any unexpected changes in the environment could lead to the malfunction or even collapse of a company, a business, or even an industry. Discerning the seeds of change and anticipating the potential disruptions in the external environment is a precondition for avoiding potential risks and threats. The present study contributes to the conceptual and methodological discussion of disruptive transformation by identifying, analyzing, and interpreting the potential disruptive factors in the external business environment. The venture is undertaken through the lens of probing into the dynamism of China’s e-commerce industry, considering its growing influence both domestically and abroad. Any unexpected disruptions would result in a significant ripple effect on interrelated businesses, industries, and even economies. The research adopts a combined mode of qualitative and quantitative methods in the form of horizon scanning and a Consumer Delphi study. Horizon scanning collects futures signals indicating the seeds of change (i.e., weak signals) and potential disruptions (i.e., wild cards), whereas Delphi study solicits the evaluations on the degree of likelihood and impact of the collected factors from an expert panel. As a result, twenty-seven potential disruptive factors are discovered, categorized, estimated, and discussed.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF STATE DEBT ON THE COUNTRY FINANCIAL SECURITY

2020 ◽  
pp. 65-76
Author(s):  
В. А. Джрагацпанян ◽  
Є. Г. Постикіна
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Financial Security ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
The Public ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Practical Model ◽  
The Impact

The article discusses the theoretical and practical aspects of ensuring the financial security of Ukraine, highlights the main macroeconomic indicators that determine the level of economic security. The public debt and its impact on economic security are analyzed. A practical model has been developed – the effect of GDP, inflation and budget deficits on public debt. Statistical factors are considered to give the main factors (GDP, inflation rate, budget deficit and public debt) that determine the current level of financial security and understanding of the level of their influence.

scholarly journals Exploring Weak Signals and Wild Cards in the Water Services

2015 ◽  
Vol 07 (2) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Water Services ◽  
Practical Application ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
The Future ◽  
Wild Cards

This paper describes a study that was conducted to assess weak signals and wild cards in the case of water services. It is argued that the potential of this approach lies in the practical application, not in scientific strict methodology and rigid interpretations of what weak signals and wild cards are. Thinking about weak signals and wild cards can be an essential part in strategic long-term thinking, help think differently, and in this way contribute to the future sustainability of water services.

Corporate culture as a driver of the corporate security of foreign military-industrial enterprises

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 2363-2380
Author(s):  
S.B. Zainullin ◽  
O.A. Zainullina
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Culture ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
The State ◽  
Industrial Complex ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Corporate Security ◽  
Industrial Enterprises ◽  
The Core ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Military

Subject. The military-industrial complex is one of the core industries in any economy. It ensures both the economic and global security of the State. However, the economic security of MIC enterprises strongly depends on the State and other stakeholders. Objectives. We examine key factors of corporate culture in terms of theoretical and practical aspects. The article identifies the best implementation of corporate culture that has a positive effect on the corporate security in the MIC of the USA, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Japan ans China. Methods. The study employs dialectical method of research, combines the historical and logic unity, structural analysis, traditional techniques of economic analysis and synthesis. Results. We performed the comparative analysis of corporate culture models and examined how they are used by the MIC corporations with respect to international distinctions. Conclusions and Relevance. The State is the main stakeholder of the MIC corporations, since it acts as the core customer represented by the military department. It regulates and controls operations. The State is often a major shareholder of such corporations. Employees are also important stakeholders. Hence, trying to satisfy stakeholders' needs by developing the corporate culture, corporations mitigate their key risks and enhance their corporate security.

Bariery w przepływie pracowników na rynku wewnętrznym – stary problem w nowych odsłonach

2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (4 (1)) ◽  
pp. 39-54
Author(s):  
Robert Grzeszczak
Keyword(s):  
Equal Treatment ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Integration Process ◽  
Labour Law ◽  
Member States ◽  
Political Criticism ◽  
Eu Policies ◽  
The Will ◽  
Free Movement Of Persons ◽  
The Eu

The issue of re-nationalization (disintegration and fragmentation) of integration process is manifested by the will of some of the Member States to verify their relations with the European Union. In the age of an economic crisis of the EU and in relation to the large migration of the population, there has emerged strong social and political criticism, on the European level, of the integration process, with some Member States even consideringtheir withdrawal from the EU. In those States, demands forextending the Member States’ competences in the field of some EU policies are becoming more and more popular. The legal effects of the above-mentioned processes are visible in the free movements of the internal market, mainly within the free movement of persons. Therefore, there are problems, such as increased social dumping process, the need to retain the output of the European labour law, the issue of the so-called social tourism, erosion of the meaning of the EU citizenship and the principle of equal treatment.

Comparative Assessment of Poverty Indicators in the European Part of the CIS and the European Union as a Social Criterion of Economic Security

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 924-939
Author(s):  
V. A. Tsvetkov ◽  
K. Kh. Zoidov ◽  
K. S. Yankauskas ◽  
Sh. Kobil
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Actual State ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Poverty Dynamics ◽  
Subsistence Level ◽  
Strategic Objectives ◽  
Poverty Indicators

The presented study comparatively analyzes indicators of the level of poverty and social inequality in Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, and the European Union (EU) as a criterion of national economic security.Aim. The study aims to examine existing approaches to determining the level of poverty and its dynamics and to consider suggestions for improving this methodology.Tasks. The authors examine and comparatively analyze approaches and methods for determining the level of poverty and its dynamics in the European Union and the CIS countries that are not members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).Methods. This study uses the methods of systems analysis, evolutionary-institutional theory, and historical approach.Results. Determining the level of poverty based on the number of citizens with incomes below the subsistence level can lead to misrepresentation of the actual state of this phenomenon. Calculation of poverty indicators based on consumer spending provides more accurate data on the level of poverty in a country where a significant share of the population’s income is generated by remittances from individuals living abroad, which are not reflected in official income statistics. A comparative analysis of poverty dynamics shows that in 2013 the level of poverty in all four examined countries decreased compared to 2006. Poverty dynamics in Russia and Belarus is more synchronized than in Ukraine and Moldova. A common methodology for calculating the level of poverty in all EU countries makes it possible to conduct a more thorough comparative analysis of poverty dynamics and to formulate more accurate recommendations in the field of anti-poverty policies. Based on the identified poverty dynamics in the EU and Russia, it is highly possible that strategic objectives on poverty reduction in the European Union and Russia will not be completed.Conclusions. To exclude the possibility of interested authorities influencing the dynamics of the poverty indicator by changing its threshold values depending on the current economic or political situation, it is necessary to switch to comprehensive assessment of this indicator in Russia. For comparative cross-country data analysis, it is advisable to consider the possibility of creating a Eurasian Statistics Service within the EAEU that would collect statistics and standardize statistical methods among the EAEU member states.

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