Weak Signals and Wild Cards Leading to Transformative Disruption: A Consumer Delphi Study on the Future of e-Commerce in China

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan Qi ◽  
Petri Tapio
Keyword(s):  
Delphi Study ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative Methods ◽  
Horizon Scanning ◽  
The Future ◽  
Wild Cards

The future of businesses is not only orchestrated by emerging trends and megatrends but also to a greater extent struck by surprising events. With the accelerating presence of high-tech innovations and smart technologies, business activities are exposed to an increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous environment. Any unexpected changes in the environment could lead to the malfunction or even collapse of a company, a business, or even an industry. Discerning the seeds of change and anticipating the potential disruptions in the external environment is a precondition for avoiding potential risks and threats. The present study contributes to the conceptual and methodological discussion of disruptive transformation by identifying, analyzing, and interpreting the potential disruptive factors in the external business environment. The venture is undertaken through the lens of probing into the dynamism of China’s e-commerce industry, considering its growing influence both domestically and abroad. Any unexpected disruptions would result in a significant ripple effect on interrelated businesses, industries, and even economies. The research adopts a combined mode of qualitative and quantitative methods in the form of horizon scanning and a Consumer Delphi study. Horizon scanning collects futures signals indicating the seeds of change (i.e., weak signals) and potential disruptions (i.e., wild cards), whereas Delphi study solicits the evaluations on the degree of likelihood and impact of the collected factors from an expert panel. As a result, twenty-seven potential disruptive factors are discovered, categorized, estimated, and discussed.

scholarly journals Paradigm Shift in Business Education: A Competence-Based Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1348 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constantin Bratianu ◽  
Shahrazad Hadad ◽  
Ruxandra Bejinaru
Keyword(s):  
Business Education ◽  
Paradigm Shift ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Business Students ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Ecosystem Dynamics ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative Methods ◽  
Business Competencies ◽  
The Future ◽  
Critical Literature

The fast and unpredictable changes in the business environment lead to significant changes in the future job market. For current business students, the future will offer many new opportunities for their employment but, at the same time, it will also create many threats disguised in the disappearing jobs. Business education centered mainly on knowledge transmission is challenged to switch towards a competence-based approach which includes knowledge, skills, and attitudes. The present research focuses on the need to change the paradigm of business education by creating a new learning environment centered on business competencies, and on a new knowledge ecosystem dynamics. The approach uses both qualitative and quantitative methods. In the first phase the research is focused on a critical literature review, and extraction of ideas for the next phase based on quantitative methods. In order to evaluate the students’ perception on the need of competence-based business education, a questionnaire has been designed and applied to undergraduate and graduate students enrolled in business and management programs. Data is processed by using SPSS and deriving six logistic regressions based on the conceptual model designed similar to a hierarchy Findings coming from students show a significant awareness for the need of paradigm shift in business education, from knowledge transfer to business competence development.

The Role of Leadership in High Tech Manufacturing Companies in a Changing Environment

2011 ◽  
Vol 495 ◽  
pp. 176-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiannis Triantafyllopoulos ◽  
Nikolaos Konstantopoulos ◽  
Damianos P. Sakas
Keyword(s):  
Performance Management ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Merger And Acquisition ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Company Strategy

This article aims to examine the role of leadership after a change in the business environment of a company, such as a Merger and Acquisition, in high tech manufacturing companies. Particularly as the number of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) continues to increase and during recession times is one of the most common strategy, more leaders are called upon to to develop their skills an play the most important role for the company strategy. For this purpose both qualitative and quantitative methods are used to examine the effect of leadership after a Merger and Acquisition in some Greek companies that operate in manufacturing business. Findings indicate that in many cases the change that occurs as a result of a merger is imposed on the leaders who have the critical role not only to communicate effectively the company strategy but also to find the correct ways to apply the requested performance management strategies, such as recognition, innovation and others in the new company employees.

Collaborative practices with suppliers in Indian manufacturing multinationals

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 206-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manoj Hudnurkar ◽  
Urvashi Rathod
Keyword(s):  
Balanced Scorecard ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Exploratory Research ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Collaborative Practices ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative Methods ◽  
Customer Perspective

Purpose The aim of this research was to study collaborative practices with suppliers in multinational manufacturing companies operating in India and to develop a framework for collaboration with suppliers. Design/methodology/approach This study adopted a four-step mixed-methods approach that included qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitative technique was used to explore the factors and develop a balanced scorecard-based (BSC – balanced scorecard) framework using them. Quantitative technique was used to validate the framework statistically and also by using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process using perception-based ranks given by practitioners. Findings The exploratory research resulted in 26 antecedents for collaboration with suppliers in supply chains. Out of these 26, only 19 were considered based on importance given by practitioners. Further, the identified antecedents were classified and mapped based on the perspectives of the BSC. The extended BSC adds business environment and partnership perspectives to existing BSC framework. Some of the important factors identified under these perspectives were transparency of transactions, long-term commitment and trust. The customer perspective was given the utmost importance by the practitioners. Research limitations/implications There are certain issues that may limit the completeness of the work in a global context. The number of organizations (21) and respondents (45) may also be insufficient to convey the complete knowledge embedded in the practice of the field. Originality/value The study provides practical insights about the factors affecting collaboration with suppliers. A BSC-based framework for collaboration with suppliers was also developed along with the associated importance of each perspective and factors under each perspective, which can prove to be of great value to academics and practitioners involved in relationship with suppliers in supply chain.

scholarly journals EVALUATION OF LOGGER PRO INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY SUPPORTED APPLICATIONS IN THE SCOPE OF STEM

2021 ◽  
Vol 79 (5) ◽  
pp. 751-766
Author(s):  
Ahmet Kumaş
Keyword(s):  
High Schools ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Further Education ◽  
Innovative Technology ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Physics Teaching ◽  
Student Groups ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative Methods ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
The University

Although advanced technological tools and equipment are used effectively in daily life, the inability of all students to access high-tech experiment applications in high schools negatively affects disadvantaged student groups in the further education process. The main purpose of the research evaluates students in four different categories about 10th-grade illuminance subjects by using Logger Pro technology within the scope of STEM. The study was carried out with 84 students at the school where the researcher taught in the fall semester of the 2019-2020 academic year. Within the scope of action research, qualitative and quantitative methods were used together. Quantitative findings were evaluated with SPSS and qualitative findings were evaluated with content analysis. Based on the research findings, it is revealed that the use of experimental content supported by innovative technology within the scope of science in high schools make a significant contribution in three categories within the scope of hopes and goals for STEM. Making applications supported by Logger Pro with technological content in schools improves the responsibilities of students in homework, contributes to their successful graduation from high schools and enables them to get into the departments they want in the university. These practices cause students to enjoy the professions they will choose in the future and help them reach their favorite professions by working harder. Keywords: experimental content, innovative technology, physics teaching, STEM

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF THE DYNAMICS OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE CONDITIONS OF A CHANGING SOCIO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT

New Medit ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 15-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augustin Ignatov
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative Methods ◽  
Political Interests ◽  
The Future ◽  
Present World

The speed the present world changes, is at least impressive. During the last decade the global socio-economic environment faced major adjustments dictated by globalisation, technological progress and political interests. The European Union seems to fail in keeping up with the changing environment. Thus, if in 2007 the European Union represented 30.7% of the global nominal GDP, then in 2016 it accounted only for 21.7% (World Bank). The economic positions of the European Union have declined much as compared to the rest of the world the fact which inevitably leads to the decrease of the community’s political and economic strength. The main scope of the present paper is to assess the extent to which the economic security of the European Union has changed in the period of 2007-2017. At the same time, it has been proposed to identify the main subversive factors which affected the economic security of the European Union in the period of 2007-2017 and threaten the future perspectives of the Union. The results reached by the use of both qualitative and quantitative methods of analysis explicitly point out that economic security is decreasing and the identified threats menace the future existence of the European Union.

scholarly journals The Future of Ownership: A Disruptive Scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amir-reza Asadi
Keyword(s):  
Short Story ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Sharing Economy ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
Horizon Scanning ◽  
Virtual Economy ◽  
The Future

<p>During thousands of years, ownership was an essential aspiration for humankind, but there are signs that this is changing. This research is studying the disruptive tech-driven businesses which change our attitude toward the ownership. The Horizon Scanning is to identify the weak signals which indicate the disruption in how and what people possess. Analysis of collected articles alluded to the growth of subscription/sharing economy, virtual economy, and tokenization, being recognized as the weak signals which shape the future of ownership. According to these signals, Futures Wheel sessions were conducted to explore the consequences of signals in real life. The final scenario developed in the form of a short story, and it coalesces the hypergrowth of the mentioned signals. </p>

Water resources – an analysis of trends, weak signals and wild cards with implications for Russia

foresight ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 152-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ozcan Saritas ◽  
Liliana N. Proskuryakova
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Sector ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Trends ◽  
Russian Water ◽  
The Future ◽  
Wild Cards

Purpose This paper focuses on the long-term situation with water resources, and water sector in particular, analyzed through a Foresight study. The authors attribute particular attention to implication for Russia, which is relatively better positioned regarding the availability of water resources. However, the country still faces challenges related to the protection of water resources, drinking water supply, water networks, consumption patterns, water discharge, treatment and re-use. The present study aims at identification and analysis of trends, factors and uncertainties in water supply, demand, use and re-use with a particular focus on sustainability of water systems; water use by households and industry; and new water services and products. Design/methodology/approach Research methodology in this paper involves a horizon scanning exercise for the identification of the key trends, factors and uncertainties along with the identification of weak signals of future emerging trends and wild cards in the form of future surprises, shocks and other unexpected events that may disrupt the preservation of water resources and the future of the water sector. Trends characterize broad parameters for shifts in attitudes, climate, policies and business focus over periods of several years that usually have global reach. These are usually experienced by everyone and often in similar contexts. Trends may represent threats, opportunities or a mixture of them, identified through underlying processes, possible events and other future developments. Findings A key systemic restriction of water use for the next decades both globally and in Russia relates to competition between agriculture, energy, manufacturing and household water use. Given that the amount of renewable water resources is almost fixed and even decreases because of pollution, circular economy solutions for water use will be required. Implications of the global trends identified in the study for Russia are dependent on the overall situation with water resources in the country. Russia has sufficient water supply: the overall intake of water for drinking and economic purposes in Russia amounts to 3 per cent of the total water resources, two-thirds of which are discarded back to water bodies. At the same time, there are substantial problems associated with the extremely uneven distribution of water resources across the country, as well as high “water intensity” of the Russian GDP. The Russian water sector is currently not very attractive for investors. Moreover, it has significantly less lobbying opportunities than other infrastructure sectors, and this complicates its institutional and financial positions. Meanwhile, there have been some positive changes with regard to activities with a short pay-off period. Originality/value The paper offers one of the first studies on the future of Russian water resources with a focus on the water supply and sanitation sector. A comprehensive approach to trends identification (not found in other studies on Russian water resources) allowed authors to identify social, technological, environmental, economic, policy and value-related global trends and uncertainties. Moreover, implications of these trends and uncertainties, as well as Russia-specific trends, were outlined.

Scenariusze rozwoju i bezpieczeństwa makroekonomicznego państw Inicjatywy Trójmorza od czasu COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 171-199
Author(s):  
Marta Gębska
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Weak Signals ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
The Future ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Wild Cards ◽  
The Will ◽  
Research Grant

The aim of the article is to present the results of research on the effects of the coronavirus COVID-19 on the economies of the Three Seas Initiative countries and to try to answer the question about the future of the Initiative. It was assumed that the development and future of this initiative, which is still shaping its identity, and the possibility of achieving its goals, will depend on the economic possibilities of the states that make it up and the decisions made by the heads of states. The analysis was based on the latest macroeconomic statistical data published by Eurostat and the IMF, concerning: GDP, industrial production, budget deficit, public debt, unemployment and inflation. The article outlines the genesis of the Three Seas Initiative and its goals, in order to explain its essence and assumptions. In order to assess the development possibilities of the Three Seas Initiative countries and forecast their economic security in the context of COVID-19, a simplified forecasting method was used, prepared by a team of researchers in a research grant, consisting in distinguishing global megatrends, the socalled wild cards, weak signals, and based on them, possible scenarios were created. They include a forecast of changes in macroeconomic indicators in the context of megatrends and conclusions on the future of the initiative. The scale of the virus’s destruction and its impact on the macroeconomic security of countries will depend on the number and intensity of successive waves of the pandemic, and on the degree of reveal of unfavourable phenomena (wild cards) and the intensity of phenomena currently observed in the form of weak signals. The political will of the leaders of states and the European Union to respect the debt limits set out in the Maastricht Treaty, as well as the will and real possibilities of launching development investments will also be important.

scholarly journals Impact of Knowledge Management Process on Managerial Performance in the High Tech Sector

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 155
Author(s):  
Bechir Brahmi ◽  
Malik Mustafa
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Knowledge Management ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Dynamic Capabilities ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Managerial Performance ◽  
High Tech Sector ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative Methods

This study used two mixed methods are qualitative and quantitative methods, qualitative methods were analysed using semi structured techniques based on interviews and case studies. Whereas, the quantitative methods were analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Science. Descriptive analysis based on frequencies and percentages was performed to define the major demographic characteristics of the respondents. This study aimed at identifying the major factors that affect KMP, KOL, KM dynamic capabilities, and innovation performance, in particular, influence of knowledge management on managerial performance services in developing countries. The results of this study are expected contribute to in-depth understanding of how factors affect adoption of in the high tech sector in developing countries and play critical role in improving the level of their using.

scholarly journals A Critical Consideration of Environmental Literacy: Concepts, Contexts, and Competencies

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1581 ◽  
Author(s):  
Volkan Kaya ◽  
Doris Elster
Keyword(s):  
Teaching Methods ◽  
Mixed Method ◽  
Delphi Study ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Environmental Literacy ◽  
Mixed Method Research ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative Methods ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
Critical Consideration

This study is based on a Delphi study on environmental literacy which is an important part of science education. The main goal is to clarify the framework, including concepts, contexts, and competencies of environmental literacy, and to reach consensus on this framework in accordance with expert opinions. This study used a mixed method research design, which included both qualitative and quantitative methods, to reveal expert opinions. The exploratory sequential design, one type of mixed method research, was used in this Delphi study and performed in three consecutive steps. The sample consisted of 45 experts who initially agreed to participate in this study, with 20 of the 45 participating in the first step Delphi. The numbers of participants in the second and third Delphi steps are 44 and 31, respectively. This study concluded there was a consensus about the definition, sub-dimensions, and competencies of environmental literacy and the institutions, social groups, and people responsible for the development of qualified environmentally-literate individuals. Additionally, there was agreement concerning what to do to support the development of environmental literacy, topics that should be included in the curriculum and textbooks, and teaching methods and extra-curriculum activities for the development of environmental literacy.

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