Using Creativity, Diversity, and Iterative Ways of Working to Send the Virus to Lockdown

The novel Covid-19 causing virus has caused major disruptions to individuals, societies, and economies worldwide. No single country has been left unaffected, and many societies have taken severe measures, including complete lockdowns of huge metropolitan areas, to limit the further spread of the virus. As a result, international trade and traveling have virtually come to a halt, enterprises struggle to survive, and both individuals and entire societies face an uncertain future. The Covid-19 pandemic thus represents a wild-card event that disrupts predictions of future developments and confronts researchers, policymakers, and decision-makers in organisations with a wicked problem. This chapter proposes that lateral collaboration, shorter iteration loops, and diversity will enable organisations to cope with future wild cards more effectively. Applying the same principles to research bears the potential to generate creative solutions to the wicked problem of pandemic disease control faster.

Nonlinear Dynamics of Heavy Structures

At the moment, not enough attention is paid to different aspects of nonlinear dynamics for heavy structures. In this article we attempt to create a mathematical model for finding a frame (field) with predictable dynamic pattern of load-carrying capability for a heavy structure based оn the parameters of its reliable (failure-free, low-risk) operation. It is difficult to find a solution for this problem now but the following algorithm can be applied. Small dimension projection is first obtained for orthonormal vectors determining the structural load-carrying capability. Then we use available methods to find a field where any relationship (functional, logical) can be obtained between the rules (wild cards) and the load-carrying capability displayed by a heavy structure. This article carries on the cycle of activities on structural risk analysis involving heavy structures. Numerical and calculated data are based on previous studies. The analysis is performed on a metallurgical overhead crane. The obtained findings are used for adopting various engineering solutions at different stages of heavy structure operation.

Scenariusze rozwoju i bezpieczeństwa makroekonomicznego państw Inicjatywy Trójmorza od czasu COVID-19

The aim of the article is to present the results of research on the effects of the coronavirus COVID-19 on the economies of the Three Seas Initiative countries and to try to answer the question about the future of the Initiative. It was assumed that the development and future of this initiative, which is still shaping its identity, and the possibility of achieving its goals, will depend on the economic possibilities of the states that make it up and the decisions made by the heads of states. The analysis was based on the latest macroeconomic statistical data published by Eurostat and the IMF, concerning: GDP, industrial production, budget deficit, public debt, unemployment and inflation. The article outlines the genesis of the Three Seas Initiative and its goals, in order to explain its essence and assumptions. In order to assess the development possibilities of the Three Seas Initiative countries and forecast their economic security in the context of COVID-19, a simplified forecasting method was used, prepared by a team of researchers in a research grant, consisting in distinguishing global megatrends, the socalled wild cards, weak signals, and based on them, possible scenarios were created. They include a forecast of changes in macroeconomic indicators in the context of megatrends and conclusions on the future of the initiative. The scale of the virus’s destruction and its impact on the macroeconomic security of countries will depend on the number and intensity of successive waves of the pandemic, and on the degree of reveal of unfavourable phenomena (wild cards) and the intensity of phenomena currently observed in the form of weak signals. The political will of the leaders of states and the European Union to respect the debt limits set out in the Maastricht Treaty, as well as the will and real possibilities of launching development investments will also be important.

China’s demographic prospects to 2040 and their implications: an overview

China’s population prospects over the decades ahead are largely shaped by pro-longed sub-replacement childbearing, likely to have been in effect for half a century by 2040. China’s population is on track to peak in the coming decade and to decline at an accelerating pace thereafter. Between 2015 and 2040, China’s population aged 50 and older is on course to increase by roughly one-quarter of a billion people; the under-50 population is set to decline by a roughly comparable magnitude. China is set to experience an extraordinarily rapid surge of population aging, with especially explosive population growth for the 65-plus group, even as its working-age population (conventionally defined as the age 15–64 group) progressively shrinks. Additionally, a number of demographic changes underway now constitute “wild cards” for China’s future: including (1) the impending “marriage squeeze” due to abnormal sex ratios at birth from the one-child policy era; (2) the problem of mass urbanisation under a system that consigns migrants in urban areas to an officially inferior status; and (3) the revolutionary changes in the Chinese family structure, which portend a dramatic departure from previous arrangements on which Chinese society and economy depended.

Skills toolkit 3: Wild cards

This chapter considers some generic psychological strategies for dealing with unknown elements in the interview, the wild cards. The wild card allows the interviewer to see how a candidate goes about solving a problem that has not been pre-prepared, and how the journey of the problem-solving process might be more important to the interviewer than arriving at the answer. The chapter discusses facing the unknown and considers a way of reacting and adapting in the interview. It uses an exercise to develop a method to deal with a wild card in the interview, and then considers how to discover your edge in this process. Finally, the chapter discusses the importance of endings and closure after a wild card scenario.