scholarly journals A Study on Coastal Flooding and Risk Assessment under Climate Change in Mid-Western Coast of Taiwan

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tai-Wen Hsu ◽  
Dong-Sin Shih ◽  
Chi-Yu Li ◽  
Yuan-Jyh Lan ◽  
Yu-Chen Lin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
Wave Condition ◽  
The Impact

This study integrated coastal-watershed models and combined a risk assessment method to develop a methodology to investigate the impact resulting from coastal disasters under climate change. The mid-western coast of Taiwan suffering from land subsidence was selected as the demonstrative area for the vulnerability analysis based on prediction of sea level rise (SLR), wave run-up, overtopping, and coastal flooding under the scenarios of 2020 to 2039. Database from tidal gauges and satellite images were used to analyze sea level rise using EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition). Extreme wave condition and storm surge were estimated by numerical simulation using WWM (Wind Wave Model) and POM (Princeton Ocean Model). Coastal inundation was then simulated via WASH123D watershed model. The risk map of study areas based on the analyses of vulnerability and disaster were established using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) technique. Predictions of sea level rise, the maximum wave condition and storm surge under the scenarios of 2020 to 2039 are presented. The results indicate that the sea level at the mid-western coast of Taiwan will rise in an average of 5.8 cm, equivalent to a rising velocity of 2.8 mm/year. The analysis indicates that Wuqi, Lukang, Mailiao, and Taixi townships are susceptive, low resistant and low resilient, and reaches the high risk level. The assessment provides that important information for making adaption policy in the mid-western coast of Taiwan.

Analysis of Flood Vulnerability and Transit Availability with a Changing Climate in Harris County, Texas

2019 ◽  
Vol 2673 (6) ◽  
pp. 258-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua A. Pulcinella ◽  
Arne M. E. Winguth ◽  
Diane Jones Allen ◽  
Niveditha Dasa Gangadhar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Harris County ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Block Groups ◽  
The Impact

Hurricanes and other extreme precipitation events can have devastating effects on population and infrastructure that can create problems for emergency responses and evacuation. Projected climate change and associated global warming may lead to an increase in extreme weather events that results in greater inundation from storm surges or massive precipitation. For example, record flooding during Hurricane Katrina or, more recently, during Hurricane Harvey in 2017, led to many people being cut off from aid and unable to evacuate. This study focuses on the impact of severe weather under climate change for areas of Harris County, TX that are susceptible to flooding either by storm surge or extreme rainfall and evaluates the transit demand and availability in those areas. Future risk of flooding in Harris County was assessed by GIS mapping of the 100-year and 500-year FEMA floodplains and most extreme category 5 storm tide and global sea level rise. The flood maps have been overlaid with population demographics and transit accessibility to determine vulnerable populations in need of transit during a disaster. It was calculated that 70% of densely populated census block groups are located within the floodplains, including a disproportional amount of low-income block groups. The results also show a lack of transit availability in many areas susceptible to extreme storm surge exaggerated with sea level rise. Further study of these areas to improve transit infrastructure and evacuation strategies will improve the outcomes of extreme weather events in the future.

scholarly journals Impact Assessment of Storm Surge and Climate Change-Enhanced Sea Level Rise on Atoll Nations: A Case Study of the Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrius Sabūnas ◽  
Takuya Miyashita ◽  
Nobuki Fukui ◽  
Tomoya Shimura ◽  
Nobuhito Mori
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Exposed Population ◽  
The Impact

The Pacific region consists of numerous Small Island Developing States (SIDS), one of the most vulnerable to flooding caused by compound effects of sea level rise (SLR) and storms. Nevertheless, individual studies regarding the impact assessment for SIDS, such as the low-lying Kiribati, remain scarce. This study assessed the impact of climate change-induced storm surge and SLR compounding effects on Tarawa, the most populous atoll of Kiribati, the largest coral atoll nation. It projected the impact using a combined dynamic surge and SLR model based on the IPCC AR5 RCP scenarios and 1/100 and 1/50 years return period storm events. This approach allows estimating the inundation scope and the consecutive exposed population by the end of the 21st century. The results of this study show that the pace of SLR is pivotal for Tarawa, as the sea level rise alone can claim more than 50% of the territory and pose a threat to over 60% of the population under the most intense greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Furthermore, most coasts on the lagoon side are particularly vulnerable. In contrast, the contribution of extreme events is generally minimal due to low wind speeds and the absence of tropical cyclones (TC). Despite this, it is clear the compound effects are critical and may inescapably bring drastic changes to the atoll nations by the end of this century. The impact assessment in this study draws attention to the social impact of climate change on SIDS, most notably atoll islands, and evaluates their adaptation potential.

scholarly journals Coastal flood alleviation through management interventions under changing climate conditions

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-203
Author(s):  
William George Bennett ◽  
Harshinie Karunarathna
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Management ◽  
Management Practice ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Management Interventions ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Coastal flooding has disastrous consequences on people, infrastructure, properties and the environment. Increasing flood risk as a result of global climate change is a significant concern both within the UK and globally. To counter any potential increase in future flooding, a range of potential management options are being considered. This study aims to explore future coastal management practice for flood alleviation, incorporating the influence of climate change. Design/methodology/approach The Taf estuary in South West Wales, a macro-tidal estuary which has a history of coastal flooding, was chosen as the case study in this paper to investigate the impact of coastal management interventions such as construction of hard defences, managed realignment or altering land use of affiliated ecosystems such as salt marshes on the complex hydrodynamics and hence flooding of the surrounding areas of the estuary. The study was carried out using a numerical hydrodynamic model of the Taf estuary, developed using the process-based Delft3D modelling software. Findings The role of the selected management interventions on coastal flooding was investigated using an extreme storm condition, both with and without the impact of future sea level rise. The results highlight the scale of the effect of sea level rise, with the selected management interventions revealing that minimising the increase in flooding in future requires careful consideration of the available options. Originality/value This paper explores the highlighted role of coastal management practice in future with the influence of climate change to study how effective alternative methods can be for flood alleviation.

scholarly journals Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise Around Viti Levu, Fiji

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrius Sabūnas ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Nobuki Fukui ◽  
Takuya Miyashita ◽  
Tomoya Shimura
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Population Exposure ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
The Impact

Projecting the sea level rise (SLR), storm surges, and related inundation in the Pacific Islands due to climate change is important for assessing the impact of climate change on coastal regions as well as the adaptation of the coastal regions. The compounding effects of storm surges and SLR are one of the major causes of flooding and extreme events; however, a quantitative impact assessment that considers the topographical features of the island has not been properly conducted.Therefore, this study projects the impact of storm surge and SLR due to climate change on Viti Levu, which is the biggest and most populous island in Fiji. The impact of SLR on the inundation in coastal areas was simulated using a dynamic model based on the IPCC SROCC scenarios and the 1/100 years return period storm surge implemented based on the RCP8.5 equivalent scenario. The affected inundation area and population due to storm surges and SLRs are discussed based on the compound effects of SLR and storm surge.Although the contribution of SLR to the inundation area was quite significant, the 1/100 year storm surge increased by 10 to 50% of the inundation area. In addition, a narrow and shallow bay with a flat land area had the largest impact of storm surge inundation. Furthermore, the western wind direction had the most severe storm surge inundation and related population exposure due to the topographic and bathymetric characteristics of Viti Levu Island.

scholarly journals From days to decades: numerical modelling of freshwater lens response to climate change stressors on small low-lying islands

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 933-949 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Holding ◽  
D. M. Allen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Freshwater Lens ◽  
Andros Island ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Freshwater lenses on small islands are vulnerable to many climate change-related stressors, which can act over relatively long time periods, on the order of decades (e.g., sea level rise, changes in recharge), or short time periods, such as days (storm surge overwash). This study evaluates the response of the freshwater lens on a small low-lying island to various stressors. To account for the varying temporal and spatial scales of the stressors, two different density-dependent flow and solute transport codes are used: SEAWAT (saturated) and HydroGeoSphere (unsaturated/saturated). The study site is Andros Island in the Bahamas, which is characteristic of other low-lying carbonate islands in the Caribbean and Pacific regions. In addition to projected sea level rise and reduced recharge under future climate change, Andros Island experienced a storm surge overwash event during Hurricane Francis in 2004, which contaminated the main wellfield. Simulations of reduced recharge result in a greater loss of freshwater lens volume (up to 19%), while sea level rise contributes a lower volume loss (up to 5%) due to the flux-controlled conceptualization of Andros Island, which limits the impact of sea level rise. Reduced recharge and sea level rise were simulated as incremental instantaneous shifts. The lens responds relatively quickly to these stressors, within 0.5 to 3 years, with response time increasing as the magnitude of the stressor increases. Simulations of the storm surge overwash indicate that the freshwater lens recovers over time; however, prompt remedial action can restore the lens to potable concentrations up to 1 month sooner.

scholarly journals Quantifying Uncertainty in Exposure to Coastal Hazards Associated with Both Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies: A U.S. Pacific Northwest Alternative Coastal Futures Analysis

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 545
Author(s):  
Alexis K. Mills ◽  
Peter Ruggiero ◽  
John P. Bolte ◽  
Katherine A. Serafin ◽  
Eva Lipiec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Quantifying Uncertainty

Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level rise, changing storminess patterns, and evolving human development pressures. Incorporating uncertainty associated with both climate change and the range of possible adaptation measures is essential for projecting the evolving exposure to coastal flooding and erosion, as well as associated community vulnerability through time. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling platform, that provides a scenario-based framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape, was used in Tillamook County, OR (USA) to explore strategies that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards within the context of climate change. Probabilistic simulations of extreme water levels were used to assess the impacts of variable projections of sea-level rise and storminess both as individual climate drivers and under a range of integrated climate change scenarios through the end of the century. Additionally, policy drivers, modeled both as individual management decisions and as policies integrated within adaptation scenarios, captured variability in possible human response to increased hazards risk. The relative contribution of variability and uncertainty from both climate change and policy decisions was quantified using three stakeholder relevant landscape performance metrics related to flooding, erosion, and recreational beach accessibility. In general, policy decisions introduced greater variability and uncertainty to the impacts of coastal hazards than climate change uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty across a suite of coproduced performance metrics can help determine the relative impact of management decisions on the adaptive capacity of communities under future climate scenarios.

The Impact of Climate Change on States

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 115-132
Author(s):  
Łukasz Kułaga
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
International Law ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Fundamental Change ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The increase in sea levels, as a result of climate change in territorial aspect will have a potential impact on two major issues – maritime zones and land territory. The latter goes into the heart of the theory of the state in international law as it requires us to confront the problem of complete and permanent disappearance of a State territory. When studying these processes, one should take into account the fundamental lack of appropriate precedents and analogies in international law, especially in the context of the extinction of the state, which could be used for guidance in this respect. The article analyses sea level rise impact on baselines and agreed maritime boundaries (in particular taking into account fundamental change of circumstances rule). Furthermore, the issue of submergence of the entire territory of a State is discussed taking into account the presumption of statehood, past examples of extinction of states and the importance of recognition in this respect.

scholarly journals Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 1559-1571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Krien ◽  
Bernard Dudon ◽  
Jean Roger ◽  
Gael Arnaud ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Lesser Antilles ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave–current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge – up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

scholarly journals A Study on Coastal Flooding and Risk Assessment under Climate Change in the Mid-Western Coast of Taiwan

Water ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tai-Wen Hsu ◽  
Dong-Sin Shih ◽  
Chi-Yu Li ◽  
Yuan-Jyh Lan ◽  
Yu-Chen Lin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Western Coast
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