scholarly journals Causal Pathways for Temperature Predictability from Snow Depth

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik W. Kolstad
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Causal Pathways

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) weather forecasting has improved in recent years, thanks partly to better representation of physical variables in models. For instance, realistic initializations of snow and soil moisture in models yield enhanced predictability on S2S time scales. Snow depth and soil moisture also mediate month-to-month persistence of near-surface air temperature. Here the role of snow depth as predictor of temperature one month ahead in the Northern Hemisphere is probed via two causal pathways. Through the first pathway, snow depth anomalies in month 1 cause snow depth anomalies in month 2, which then cause temperature anomalies in month 2. This pathway represents the snow–albedo feedback, as well as cooling due to insulation, emissivity and heat loss. It is active from fall to summer, and its effect peaks in March/April in the midlatitudes and in May/June at high latitudes. A complementary second pathway, where snow depth anomalies in month 1 cause soil moisture anomalies in month 2, which then cause temperature anomalies in month 2 through soil moisture–temperature feedbacks, is only active in spring and summer. Its effect peaks later in the warm season than the effect of the first pathway. Geographically, snow depth mediates north of, and soil moisture south of, the areas with the highest temperature predictability from snow depth. These results indicate that the two pathways describe complementary physical mechanisms. The first pathway embodies month-to-month persistence of snow depth, and the second pathway represents melting of snow from one month to the next.

scholarly journals Causal Pathways for Temperature Predictability from Snow Depth

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik W. Kolstad
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Causal Pathways

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) weather forecasting has improved in recent years, thanks partly to better representation of physical variables in models. For instance, realistic initializations of snow and soil moisture in models yield enhanced predictability on S2S time scales. Snow depth and soil moisture also mediate month-to-month persistence of near-surface air temperature. Here the role of snow depth as predictor of temperature one month ahead in the Northern Hemisphere is probed via two causal pathways. Through the first pathway, snow depth anomalies in month 1 cause snow depth anomalies in month 2, which then cause temperature anomalies in month 2. This pathway represents the snow–albedo feedback, as well as cooling due to insulation, emissivity and heat loss. It is active from fall to summer, and its effect peaks in March/April in the midlatitudes and in May/June at high latitudes. A complementary second pathway, where snow depth anomalies in month 1 cause soil moisture anomalies in month 2, which then cause temperature anomalies in month 2 through soil moisture–temperature feedbacks, is only active in spring and summer. Its effect peaks later in the warm season than the effect of the first pathway. Geographically, snow depth mediates north of, and soil moisture south of, the areas with the highest temperature predictability from snow depth. These results indicate that the two pathways describe complementary physical mechanisms. The first pathway embodies month-to-month persistence of snow depth, and the second pathway represents melting of snow from one month to the next.

scholarly journals Causal Pathways for Temperature Predictability from Snow Depth

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik W. Kolstad
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Physical Mechanisms ◽  
Causal Pathways

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) weather forecasting has improved in recent years, thanks partly to better representation of physical variables in models. For instance, realistic initializations of snow and soil moisture in models yield enhanced predictability on S2S time scales. Snow depth and soil moisture also mediate month-to-month persistence of near-surface air temperature. Here the role of snow depth as predictor of temperature one month ahead in the Northern Hemisphere is probed via two causal pathways. Through the first pathway, snow depth anomalies in month 1 cause snow depth anomalies in month 2, which then cause temperature anomalies in month 2. This pathway represents the snow–albedo feedback, as well as cooling due to insulation, emissivity and heat loss. It is active from fall to summer, and its effect peaks in March/April in the midlatitudes and in May/June at high latitudes. A complementary second pathway, where snow depth anomalies in month 1 cause soil moisture anomalies in month 2, which then cause temperature anomalies in month 2 through soil moisture–temperature feedbacks, is only active in spring and summer. Its effect peaks later in the warm season than the effect of the first pathway. Geographically, snow depth mediates north of, and soil moisture south of, the areas with the highest temperature predictability from snow depth. These results indicate that the two pathways describe complementary physical mechanisms. The first pathway embodies month-to-month persistence of snow depth, and the second pathway represents melting of snow from one month to the next.

scholarly journals Causal Pathways for Temperature Predictability from Snow Depth

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (23) ◽  
pp. 9651-9663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik W. Kolstad
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Causal Pathways ◽  
Melting Season

Dynamical subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) weather forecasting has made strides in recent years, thanks partly to better initialization and representation of physical variables in models. For instance, realistic initializations of snow and soil moisture in models yield enhanced temperature predictability on S2S time scales. Snow depth and soil moisture also mediate month-to-month persistence of near-surface air temperature. Here the role of snow depth as predictor of temperature one month ahead in the Northern Hemisphere is examined via two causal pathways. Through the first pathway, snow depth anomalies in month 1 persist into month 2 and are then linked to temperature anomalies through snow–temperature feedback mechanisms. The first pathway is active from fall to summer, and its effect peaks before the melting season: in winter in the low latitudes, in spring in the midlatitudes, and in early summer in the high latitudes. The second pathway, where snow depth anomalies in month 1 lead to soil moisture anomalies in month 2 (through melting), which are then linked to temperature anomalies in month 2 through soil moisture–temperature feedbacks, is most active in spring and summer. The effect of the second pathway peaks during the melting season, namely, later in the year than the first pathway. The latitudes of the highest mediated effect through both pathways follow a seasonal cycle, shifting northward along with the seasonal insolation cycle. In keeping with this seasonal cycle, the highest snow depth mediation occurs to the north and the highest soil moisture mediation to the south of the latitudes with the highest overall temperature predictability from snow depth.

scholarly journals Evaluation and Comparison of Noah and Pleim–Xiu Land Surface Models in MM5 Using GÖTE2001 Data: Spatial and Temporal Variations in Near-Surface Air Temperature

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (10) ◽  
pp. 1587-1605 ◽  
Author(s):  
J-F. Miao ◽  
D. Chen ◽  
K. Borne
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Models ◽  
Urban Heat ◽  
Soil Moisture Initialization ◽  
Evident Difference

Abstract In this study, the performance of two advanced land surface models (LSMs; Noah LSM and Pleim–Xiu LSM) coupled with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5), version 3.7.2, in simulating the near-surface air temperature in the greater Göteborg area in Sweden is evaluated and compared using the GÖTE2001 field campaign data. Further, the effects of different planetary boundary layer schemes [Eta and Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) PBLs] for Noah LSM and soil moisture initialization approaches for Pleim–Xiu LSM are investigated. The investigation focuses on the evaluation and comparison of diurnal cycle intensity and maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as the urban heat island during the daytime and nighttime under the clear-sky and cloudy/rainy weather conditions for different experimental schemes. The results indicate that 1) there is an evident difference between Noah LSM and Pleim–Xiu LSM in simulating the near-surface air temperature, especially in the modeled urban heat island; 2) there is no evident difference in the model performance between the Eta PBL and MRF PBL coupled with the Noah LSM; and 3) soil moisture initialization is of crucial importance for model performance in the Pleim–Xiu LSM. In addition, owing to the recent release of MM5, version 3.7.3, some experiments done with version 3.7.2 were repeated to reveal the effects of the modifications in the Noah LSM and Pleim–Xiu LSM. The modification to longwave radiation parameterizations in Noah LSM significantly improves model performance while the adjustment of emissivity, one of the vegetation properties, affects Pleim–Xiu LSM performance to a larger extent. The study suggests that improvements both in Noah LSM physics and in Pleim–Xiu LSM initialization of soil moisture and parameterization of vegetation properties are important.

scholarly journals How Are Spring Snow Conditions in Central Canada Related to Early Warm-Season Precipitation?

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 787-807 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hua Su ◽  
Robert E. Dickinson ◽  
Kirsten L. Findell ◽  
Benjamin R. Lintner
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Central Canada ◽  
Snow Conditions ◽  
Snow Precipitation ◽  
Soil Moisture Anomaly

Abstract The response of the warm-season atmosphere to antecedent snow anomalies has long been an area of study. This paper explores how the spring snow depth relates to subsequent precipitation in central Canada using ground observations, reanalysis datasets, and offline land surface model estimates. After removal of low-frequency ocean influences, April snow depth is found to correlate negatively with early warm-season (May–June) precipitation across a large portion of the study area. A chain of mechanisms is hypothesized to account for this observed negative relation: 1) a snow depth anomaly leads to a soil moisture anomaly, 2) the subsequent soil moisture anomaly affects ground turbulent fluxes, and 3) the atmospheric vertical structure allows dry soil to promote local convection. A detailed analysis supports this chain of mechanisms for those portions of the domain manifesting a statistically significant negative snow–precipitation correlation. For a portion of the study area, large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns also affect the early warm-season rainfall, indicating that the snow–precipitation feedback may depend on large-scale atmospheric dynamical features. This analysis suggests that spring snow conditions can contribute to warm-season precipitation predictability on a subseasonal to seasonal scale, but that the strength of such predictability varies geographically as it depends on the interplay of hydroclimatological conditions across multiple spatial scales.

scholarly journals Specifics of soil temperature under winter wheat canopy

2013 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 209-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jana Krčmáŕová ◽  
Hana Stredová ◽  
Radovan Pokorný ◽  
Tomáš Stdŕeda
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Soil Temperature ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Soil Surface ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Experimental Plot ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Soil Temperatures

Abstract The aim of this study was to evaluate the course of soil temperature under the winter wheat canopy and to determine relationships between soil temperature, air temperature and partly soil moisture. In addition, the aim was to describe the dependence by means of regression equations usable for phytopathological prediction models, crop development, and yield models. The measurement of soil temperatures was performed at the experimental field station ˇZabˇcice (Europe, the Czech Republic, South Moravia). The soil in the first experimental plot is Gleyic Fluvisol with 49-58% of the content particles measuring < 0.01 mm, in the second experimental plot, the soil is Haplic Chernozem with 31-32% of the content particles measuring < 0.01 mm. The course of soil temperature and its specifics were determined under winter wheat canopy during the main growth season in the course of three years. Automatic soil temperature sensors were positioned at three depths (0.05, 0.10 and 0.20 m under soil surface), air temperature sensor in 0.05 m above soil surface. Results of the correlation analysis showed that the best interrelationships between these two variables were achieved after a 3-hour delay for the soil temperature at 0.05 m, 5-hour delay for 0.10 m, and 8-hour delay for 0.20 m. After the time correction, the determination coefficient reached values from 0.75 to 0.89 for the depth of 0.05 m, 0.61 to 0.82 for the depth of 0.10 m, and 0.33 to 0.70 for the depth of 0.20 m. When using multiple regression with quadratic spacing (modeling hourly soil temperature based on the hourly near surface air temperature and hourly soil moisture in the 0.10-0.40 m profile), the difference between the measured and the model soil temperatures at 0.05 m was −2.16 to 2.37 ◦ C. The regression equation paired with alternative agrometeorological instruments enables relatively accurate modeling of soil temperatures (R2 = 0.93).

scholarly journals On the interchangeability of sea-surface and near-surface air temperature anomalies in climatologies

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelo Rubino ◽  
Davide Zanchettin ◽  
Francesco De Rovere ◽  
Michael J. McPhaden
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Air Temperature Anomalies

Influence of snowmelt on soil moisture and on near surface air temperature during winter–spring transition season

2017 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 1295-1309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaison Thomas Ambadan ◽  
Aaron A. Berg ◽  
William J. Merryfield ◽  
Woo-Sung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Transition Season ◽  
Spring Transition

Quantifying Spatiotemporal Variations of Soil Moisture Control on Surface Energy Balance and Near-Surface Air Temperature

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (18) ◽  
pp. 7105-7124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clemens Schwingshackl ◽  
Martin Hirschi ◽  
Sonia I. Seneviratne
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Moisture Regime ◽  
Transitional Regime ◽  
Evaporative Fraction ◽  
Near Surface

Abstract Soil moisture plays a crucial role for the energy partitioning at Earth’s surface. Changing fractions of latent and sensible heat fluxes caused by soil moisture variations can affect both near-surface air temperature and precipitation. In this study, a simple framework for the dependence of evaporative fraction (the ratio of latent heat flux over net radiation) on soil moisture is used to analyze spatial and temporal variations of land–atmosphere coupling and its effect on near-surface air temperature. Using three different data sources (two reanalysis datasets and one combination of different datasets), three key parameters for the relation between soil moisture and evaporative fraction are estimated: 1) the frequency of occurrence of different soil moisture regimes, 2) the sensitivity of evaporative fraction to soil moisture in the transitional soil moisture regime, and 3) the critical soil moisture value that separates soil moisture- and energy-limited evapotranspiration regimes. The results show that about 30%–60% (depending on the dataset) of the global land area is in the transitional regime during at least half of the year. Based on the identification of transitional regimes, the effect of changes in soil moisture on near-surface air temperature is analyzed. Typical soil moisture variations (standard deviation) can impact air temperature by up to 1.1–1.3 K, while changing soil moisture over its full range in the transitional regime can alter air temperature by up to 6–7 K. The results emphasize the role of soil moisture for atmosphere and climate and constitute a useful benchmark for the evaluation of the respective relationships in Earth system models.

scholarly journals A SMAP-Based Drought Monitoring Index for the United States

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Sadri ◽  
Eric F. Wood ◽  
Ming Pan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Soil ◽  
Root Zone ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
The United States ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Surface Soil Moisture ◽  
Near Surface

Abstract. Since April 2015, NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission has monitored near-surface soil moisture, mapping the globe between the latitude bands of 85.044° N/S in 2–3 days depending on location. SMAP Level 3 passive radiometer product (SPL3SMP) measures the amount of water in the top 5 cm of soil except for regions of heavy vegetation (vegetation water content >4.5 kg/m2) and frozen or snow covered locations. SPL3SMP retrievals are spatially and temporally discontinuous, so the 33 months offers a short SMAP record length and poses a statistical challenge for meaningful assessment of its indices. The SMAP SPL4SMAU data product provides global surface and root zone soil moisture at 9-km resolution based on assimilating the SPL3SMP product into the NASA Catchment land surface model. Of particular interest to SMAP-based agricultural applications is a monitoring product that assesses the SMAP near-surface soil moisture in terms of probability percentiles for dry and wet conditions. We describe here SMAP-based indices over the continental United States (CONUS) based on both near-surface and root zone soil moisture percentiles. The percentiles are based on fitting a Beta distribution to the retrieved moisture values. To assess the data adequacy, a statistical comparison is made between fitting the distribution to VIC soil moisture values for the days when SPL3SMP are available, versus fitting to a 1979–2017 VIC data record. For the cold season (November–April), 57 % of grids were deemed to be consistent between the periods, and 68 % in the warm season (May–October), based on a Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistical test. It is assumed that if grids passed the consistency test using VIC data, then the grid had sufficient SMAP data. Our near-surface and root zone drought index on maps are shown to be similar to those produced by the U.S. Drought Monitor (from D0-D4) and GRACE. In a similar manner, we extend the index to include pluvial conditions using indices W0-W4. This study is a step forward towards building a national and international soil moisture monitoring system, without which, quantitative measures of drought and pluvial conditions will remain difficult to judge.

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