scholarly journals A Novel Approach for the Short-Term Forecast of the Effective Cloud Albedo

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Urbich ◽  
Jörg Bendix ◽  
Richard Müller
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Optical Flow ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Cloud Albedo ◽  
Optical Flow Method ◽  
Term Forecast

The increasing use of renewable energies as a source of electricity has led to a fundamental transition of the power supply system. The integration of fluctuating weather-dependent energy sources into the grid already has a major impact on the load flows of the grid. As a result, the interest in forecasting wind and solar radiation with a sufficient accuracy over short time horizons grew. In this study the short-term forecast of the effective cloud albedo based on optical flow estimation methods are investigated. The optical flow method utilized here is TV-L1 from the open source library OpenCV. This method uses a multi-scale-approach to capture cloud motions on various spatial scales. After the clouds are displaced the solar surface radiation will be calculated with SPECMAGIC NOW which computes the global irradiation spectrally resolved from satellite imagery. Due to a high temporal and spatial resolution of satellite measurements the effective cloud albedo and thus solar radiation can be forecasted from 5 minutes up to 4 hours with a resolution of 0.05°. In the following there will be a brief description of the method for the short-term forecast of the effective cloud albedo. Subsequently evaluation results will be presented and discussed. Finally an outlook of further developments will be given.

scholarly journals The Seamless Solar Radiation (SESORA) Forecast for Solar Surface Irradiance—Method and Validation

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (21) ◽  
pp. 2576 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Urbich ◽  
Jörg Bendix ◽  
Richard Müller
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Solar Surface ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Surface Irradiance ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Absolute Bias ◽  
Global Irradiation ◽  
Spectrally Resolved

Due to the integration of fluctuating weather-dependent energy sources into the grid, the importance of weather and power forecasts grows constantly. This paper describes the implementation of a short-term forecast of solar surface irradiance named SESORA (seamless solar radiation). It is based on the the optical flow of effective cloud albedo and available for Germany and parts of Europe. After the clouds are shifted by applying cloud motion vectors, solar radiation is calculated with SPECMAGIC NOW (Spectrally Resolved Mesoscale Atmospheric Global Irradiance Code), which computes the global irradiation spectrally resolved from satellite imagery. Due to the high spatial and temporal resolution of satellite measurements, solar radiation can be forecasted from 15 min up to 4 h or more with a spatial resolution of 0.05 ∘ . An extensive validation of this short-term forecast is presented in this study containing two different validations based on either area or stations. The results are very promising as the mean RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) of this study equals 59 W/m 2 (absolute bias = 42 W/m 2 ) after 15 min, reaches its maximum of 142 W/m 2 (absolute bias = 97 W/m 2 ) after 165 min, and slowly decreases after that due to the setting of the sun. After a brief description of the method itself and the method of the validation the results will be presented and discussed.

scholarly journals A Novel Approach for the Short-Term Forecast of the Effective Cloud Albedo

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 955 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Urbich ◽  
Jörg Bendix ◽  
Richard Müller
Keyword(s):  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Cloud Albedo ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Novel Approach

scholarly journals Principal Possibility of the Successful Nowcast and Short-Term Forecast in the Middle Atmosphere Based on the Observed UV Irradiance

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
T. Egorova ◽  
E. Rozanov ◽  
A. V. Shapiro ◽  
W. Schmutz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Satellite Measurements ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Atmospheric Species ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Uv Irradiance ◽  
Solar Uv ◽  
Solar Uv Irradiance

We have applied chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOL to simulate the distribution of the temperature and gas species in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. As an input for the simulation, we employ daily spectral solar UV irradiance measured by SUSIM instrument onboard UARS satellite in January 1992. We have carried out an ensemble of nine 1-month long simulations using slightly different initial states of the atmosphere. We have compared the obtained time evolution of the simulated species and temperature with available satellite measurements. The obtained results allowed us to define the areas where the nowcast and short-term forecast of the atmospheric species with CCM SOCOL could be successful.

scholarly journals Features of the functioning of financial pyramids using digital assets (using the example of the Finico project): criminological analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 104-109
Author(s):  
S. S. Grozin ◽  
◽  
ZH.V. Ostrovskikh ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Term Forecast ◽  
Criminological Analysis ◽  
Digital Assets

The article deals with the problem of the emergence and functioning of financial pyramids based on the use of digital assets, using the example of the «Finico» project. The main performance indicators are analyzed, as well as the reasons that influenced the success of this project, its scale and duration of existence are characterized. Particular attention is paid to the ways of organizing and carrying out illegal financial activities with signs of financial pyramids, and some measures are proposed to counter it. A short-term forecast of an increase in the number of crimes committed using information, telecommunications and digital technologies in this area is given.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document