scholarly journals State and Perspectives of the Concept of Large‐Scale Conditioning of Regional Climate Modelling

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans von Storch ◽  
Leone Cavicchia ◽  
Frauke Feser ◽  
Delei Li
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Global Models ◽  
Atmospheric Disturbances ◽  
Low Level Jets

We review the state of dynamical downscaling with scale-constrained regional and global models. The methodology, in particular spectral nudging, has become a routine and well-researched tool for hindcasting climatologies of sub-synoptic atmospheric disturbances in coastal regions. At present, the spectrum of applications is expanding to other phenomena, but also to ocean dynamics and to extended forecasting. Also new diagnostic challenges are appearing such as spatial characteristics of small-scale phenomena such as Low Level Jets.

scholarly journals The Concept of Large‐Scale Conditioning of Climate Model Simulations of Atmospheric Coastal Dynamics: Current State and Perspectives

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans von Storch ◽  
Leone Cavicchia ◽  
Frauke Feser ◽  
Delei Li
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Coastal Dynamics ◽  
Current State ◽  
Atmospheric Disturbances ◽  
Low Level Jets ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

We review the state of dynamical downscaling with scale-constrained regional and global models. The methodology, in particular spectral nudging, has become a routine and well-researched tool for hindcasting climatologies of sub-synoptic atmospheric disturbances in coastal regions. At present, the spectrum of applications is expanding to other phenomena, but also to ocean dynamics and to extended forecasting. Additionally, new diagnostic challenges are appearing such as spatial characteristics of small-scale phenomena such as Low Level Jets.

scholarly journals A Scale-Selective Data Assimilation Approach to Improving Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecasts in a Limited-Area Model: A Case Study of Hurricane Felix (2007)

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Liu ◽  
Lian Xie
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Regional Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Track Forecast ◽  
Global Models

Abstract Accurately forecasting a tropical cyclone’s (TC) track and intensity remains one of the top priorities in weather forecasting. A dynamical downscaling approach based on the scale-selective data assimilation (SSDA) method is applied to demonstrate its effectiveness in TC track and intensity forecasting. The SSDA approach retains the merits of global models in representing large-scale environmental flows and regional models in describing small-scale characteristics. The regional model is driven from the model domain interior by assimilating large-scale flows from global models, as well as from the model lateral boundaries by the conventional sponge zone relaxation. By using Hurricane Felix (2007) as a demonstration case, it is shown that, by assimilating large-scale flows from the Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts into the regional model, the SSDA experiments perform better than both the original GFS forecasts and the control experiments, in which the regional model is only driven by lateral boundary conditions. The overall mean track forecast error for the SSDA experiments is reduced by over 40% relative to the control experiments, and by about 30% relative to the GFS forecasts, respectively. In terms of TC intensity, benefiting from higher grid resolution that better represents regional and small-scale processes, both the control and SSDA runs outperform the GFS forecasts. The SSDA runs show approximately 14% less overall mean intensity forecast error than do the control runs. It should be noted that, for the Felix case, the advantage of SSDA becomes more evident for forecasts with a lead time longer than 48 h.

scholarly journals Differences between downscaling with spectral and grid nudging using WRF

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3601-3610 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Liu ◽  
A. P. Tsimpidi ◽  
Y. Hu ◽  
B. Stone ◽  
A. G. Russell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Spectral Nudging

Abstract. Dynamical downscaling has been extensively used to study regional climate forced by large-scale global climate models. During the downscaling process, however, the simulation of regional climate models (RCMs) tends to drift away from the driving fields. Developing a solution that addresses this issue, by retaining the large scale features (from the large-scale fields) and the small-scale features (from the RCMs) has led to the development of "nudging" techniques. Here, we examine the performance of two nudging techniques, grid and spectral nudging, in the downscaling of NCEP/NCAR data with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The simulations are compared against the results with North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data set at different scales of interest using the concept of similarity. We show that with the appropriate choice of wave numbers, spectral nudging outperforms grid nudging in the capacity of balancing the performance of simulation at the large and small scales.

scholarly journals A Hybrid Downscaling Approach for Future Temperature and Precipitation Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (11) ◽  
pp. 1793-1807 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helene Birkelund Erlandsen ◽  
Kajsa M. Parding ◽  
Rasmus Benestad ◽  
Abdelkader Mezghani ◽  
Marie Pontoppidan
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Regional Climate Model Output

AbstractWe used empirical–statistical downscaling in a pseudoreality context, in which both large-scale predictors and small-scale predictands were based on climate model results. The large-scale conditions were taken from a global climate model, and the small-scale conditions were taken from dynamical downscaling of the same global model with a convection-permitting regional climate model covering southern Norway. This hybrid downscaling approach, a “perfect model”–type experiment, provided 120 years of data under the CMIP5 high-emission scenario. Ample calibration samples made rigorous testing possible, enabling us to evaluate the effect of empirical–statistical model configurations and predictor choices and to assess the stationarity of the statistical models by investigating their sensitivity to different calibration intervals. The skill of the statistical models was evaluated in terms of their ability to reproduce the interannual correlation and long-term trends in seasonal 2-m temperature T2m, wet-day frequency fw, and wet-day mean precipitation μ. We found that different 30-yr calibration intervals often resulted in differing statistical models, depending on the specific choice of years. The hybrid downscaling approach allowed us to emulate seasonal mean regional climate model output with a high spatial resolution (0.05° latitude and 0.1° longitude grid) for up to 100 GCM runs while circumventing the issue of short calibration time, and it provides a robust set of empirically downscaled GCM runs.

scholarly journals Does Spectral Nudging Have an Effect on Dynamical Downscaling Applied in Small Regional Model Domains?

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (10) ◽  
pp. 4303-4311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Schaaf ◽  
Hans von Storch ◽  
Frauke Feser
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Spectral Nudging ◽  
Atmospheric State ◽  
Model Region

Spectral nudging is a method that was developed to constrain regional climate models so that they reproduce the development of the large-scale atmospheric state, while permitting the formation of regional-scale details as conditioned by the large scales. Besides keeping the large-scale development in the interior close to a given state, the method also suppresses the emergence of ensemble variability. The method is mostly applied to reconstructions of past weather developments in regions with an extension of typically 1000–8000 km. In this article, the authors examine if spectral nudging is having an effect on simulations with model regions of the size of about 700 km × 500 km at midlatitudes located mainly over flat terrain. First two pairs of simulations are compared, two runs each with and without spectral nudging, and it is found that the four simulations are very similar, without systematic or intermittent phases of divergence. Smooth fields, which are mainly determined by spatial patterns, such as air pressure, show hardly any differences, while small-scale and heterogeneous fields such as precipitation vary strongly, mostly on the gridpoint scale, irrespective if spectral nudging is employed or not. It is concluded that the application of spectral nudging has little effect on the simulation when the model region is relatively small.

Impact of a Dense Surface Network on High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling via Observation Nudging

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (10) ◽  
pp. 1655-1670
Author(s):  
Xue Yi ◽  
Deqin Li ◽  
Chunyu Zhao ◽  
Lidu Shen ◽  
Xiaoyu Zhou
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
Surface Network ◽  
Density Surface ◽  
Surface Observations

AbstractHigh-density surface networks have become available in recent years in a number of regions throughout the world, but their utility in high-resolution dynamic downscaling has not been examined. As an attempt to fill such a gap, a suite of high-resolution (4 km) dynamical downscaling simulations is developed in this study with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and observation nudging over Liaoning in northeastern China. Three experiments, including no nudging (CTL), analysis nudging (AN), and combined analysis nudging and observation nudging with surface observations (AON), are conducted to downscale the CFSv2 reanalysis with the WRF Model for the year 2015. The three 1-yr regional climate simulations were compared with the independent surface observations. The results show that observational nudging can improve the simulation of surface variables, including temperature, wind speed, humidity, and pressure, more than nudging large-scale driving data with AN alone. The two nudging simulations can improve the cold bias for the temperature of the WRF Model. For precipitation, both the simulations with AN and observation nudging can capture the pattern of precipitation; however, with the introduction of small-scale information at the surface, AON cannot further improve the simulation of precipitation.

scholarly journals Differences between downscaling with spectral and grid nudging using WRF

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1191-1213 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Liu ◽  
A. P. Tsimpidi ◽  
Y. Hu ◽  
B. Stone ◽  
A. G. Russell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Spectral Nudging

Abstract. Dynamical downscaling has been extensively used to study regional climate forced by large-scale global climate models. During the downscaling process, however, the simulation of regional climate models (RCMs) tends to drift away from the driving fields. Developing a solution that addresses this issue, by retaining the large scale features (from the large-scale fields) and the small-scale features (from the RCMs) has led to the development of "nudging" techniques. Here, we examine the performance of two nudging techniques, grid and spectral nudging, in the downscaling of NCEP/NCAR data using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. The simulations are compared against the results with North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data set at different scales of interest. We show that with the appropriate choice of wave numbers, spectral nudging outperforms grid nudging in the capacity of balancing the performance of simulation at the large and small scales.

scholarly journals Decomposition of the large-scale atmospheric state driving downscaling: a perspective on dynamical downscaling for regional climate study

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Seiya Nishizawa ◽  
Sachiho A. Adachi ◽  
Yoshiyuki Kajikawa ◽  
Tsuyoshi Yamaura ◽  
Kazuto Ando ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Atmospheric State ◽  
Climate Study

scholarly journals Regional Climate Models Add Value to Global Model Data: A Review and Selected Examples

2011 ◽  
Vol 92 (9) ◽  
pp. 1181-1192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frauke Feser ◽  
Burkhardt Rockel ◽  
Hans von Storch ◽  
Jörg Winterfeldt ◽  
Matthias Zahn
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Data ◽  
Polar Lows

An important challenge in current climate modeling is to realistically describe small-scale weather statistics, such as topographic precipitation and coastal wind patterns, or regional phenomena like polar lows. Global climate models simulate atmospheric processes with increasingly higher resolutions, but still regional climate models have a lot of advantages. They consume less computation time because of their limited simulation area and thereby allow for higher resolution both in time and space as well as for longer integration times. Regional climate models can be used for dynamical down-scaling purposes because their output data can be processed to produce higher resolved atmospheric fields, allowing the representation of small-scale processes and a more detailed description of physiographic details (such as mountain ranges, coastal zones, and details of soil properties). However, does higher resolution add value when compared to global model results? Most studies implicitly assume that dynamical downscaling leads to output fields that are superior to the driving global data, but little work has been carried out to substantiate these expectations. Here a series of articles is reviewed that evaluate the benefit of dynamical downscaling by explicitly comparing results of global and regional climate model data to the observations. These studies show that the regional climate model generally performs better for the medium spatial scales, but not always for the larger spatial scales. Regional models can add value, but only for certain variables and locations—particularly those influenced by regional specifics, such as coasts, or mesoscale dynamics, such as polar lows. Therefore, the decision of whether a regional climate model simulation is required depends crucially on the scientific question being addressed.

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