scholarly journals Hydrologic Forecasts Verification and Comparison of Forecasting Methods

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Borsch ◽  
Andrei Khristoforov ◽  
Vladimir Krovotynzev ◽  
Ekaterina Leontieva ◽  
Yuri Simonov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Error Estimation ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Efficiency Estimation ◽  
Hydrologic Characteristic ◽  
The Mean

This paper presents the methods of estimating the mean square error of hydrological forecasts, allowing for assessment of their practical applicability. Depending upon the amount and composition of available hydrometeorological data, an appropriate method for forecast error estimation is chosen. A system of statistical tests for comparison of different forecasting methods for the same hydrologic characteristic with the same lead time is presented. These tests allow for choosing an optimal and most accurate forecasting method. Hydrological forecasting method efficiency estimation is based on comparing the forecast error with climatology or inertial (persistence) forecast error using presented tests.

scholarly journals Performance of Recent Multimodel ENSO Forecasts

2012 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 637-654 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael K. Tippett ◽  
Anthony G. Barnston ◽  
Shuhua Li
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Models ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Error Variance ◽  
Multiple Model ◽  
Dynamical Models ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Spring Predictability Barrier ◽  
International Research Institute ◽  
The Mean

AbstractThe performance of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society “ENSO forecast plume” during the 2002–11 period is evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic verification measures. The plume includes multiple model forecasts of the Niño-3.4 index for nine overlapping 3-month periods beginning the month following the latest observations. Skills decrease with increasing lead time and are highest for forecasts made after the northern spring predictability barrier for target seasons occurring prior to the forthcoming such barrier. Forecasts are found to verify systematically better against observations occurring earlier than the intended forecast targets, an effect that becomes greater with increasing lead time. During the study period, the mean forecasts of dynamical models appear to slightly (and statistically insignificantly) outperform those of statistical models, representing a subtle shift from earlier studies. The mean forecasts of dynamical models have overall larger anomalies but similar errors to those of statistical models. Intermodel spread is related to forecast error in an average sense with changes in forecast error due to changes in lead and verification season being properly reflected in changes in spread. The intermodel spread underestimates the forecast error variance, to a greater extent for statistical forecasts than for dynamical ones. Year-to-year changes in plume spread provide little additional information relative to climatological ones.

scholarly journals Investigating errors when forecasting processes with uncertain dynamics and observation noise by the self-adjusting brown's zero-order model

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (9 (114)) ◽  
pp. 47-53
Author(s):  
Boris Pospelov ◽  
Evgenіy Rybka ◽  
Mikhail Samoilov ◽  
Olekcii Krainiukov ◽  
Yurii Kulbachko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Error ◽  
The Self ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Mean Square Deviation ◽  
Process Dynamics ◽  
Uncertain Dynamics ◽  
Test Models ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Observation Noise ◽  
Test Process

This paper reports a study into the errors of process forecasting under the conditions of uncertainty in the dynamics and observation noise using a self-adjusting Brown's zero-order model. The dynamics test models have been built for predicted processes and observation noises, which make it possible to investigate forecasting errors for the self-adjusting and adaptive models. The test process dynamics were determined in the form of a rectangular video pulse with a fixed unit amplitude, a radio pulse of the harmonic process with an amplitude attenuated exponentially, as well as a video pulse with amplitude increasing exponentially. As a model of observation noise, an additive discrete Gaussian process with zero mean and variable value of the mean square deviation was considered. It was established that for small values of the mean square deviation of observation noise, a self-adjusting model under the conditions of dynamics uncertainty produces a smaller error in the process forecast. For the test jump-like dynamics of the process, the variance of the forecast error was less than 1 %. At the same time, for the adaptive model, with an adaptation parameter from the classical and beyond-the-limit sets, the variance of the error was about 20 % and 5 %, respectively. With significant observation noises, the variance of the error in the forecast of the test process dynamics for the self-adjusting and adaptive models with a parameter from the classical set was in the range from 1 % to 20 %. However, for the adaptive model, with a parameter from the beyond-the-limit set, the variance of the prediction error was close to 100 % for all test models. It was established that with an increase in the mean square deviation of observation noise, there is greater masking of the predicted test process dynamics, leading to an increase in the variance of the forecast error when using a self-adjusting model. This is the price for predicting processes with uncertain dynamics and observation noises.

The Bordeaux Automatic Meridian Circle

1978 ◽  
Vol 48 ◽  
pp. 227-228
Author(s):  
Y. Requième
Keyword(s):  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Meridian Circle ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Full Automation

In spite of important delays in the initial planning, the full automation of the Bordeaux meridian circle is progressing well and will be ready for regular observations by the middle of the next year. It is expected that the mean square error for one observation will be about ±0.”10 in the two coordinates for declinations up to 87°.

The mean-square generalized delayed decision feedback sequence detector

2003 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 265-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurizio Magarini ◽  
Arnaldo Spalvieri ◽  
Guido Tartara
Keyword(s):  
Decision Feedback ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
The Mean

Rice tablet (Aluminum Phosphide) poisoning

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. 5041
Author(s):  
Farkhondeh Jamshidi ◽  
Ahmad Ghorbani ◽  
Sina Darvishi*
Keyword(s):  
Medical Records ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Patient Records ◽  
Demographic Information ◽  
Aluminum Phosphide ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Aluminum Phosphide Poisoning ◽  
Commit Suicide

The abuse of some pesticides especially to suicide is one of the current problems of pesticides. Aluminum phosphide induced poisoning usually happens to suicide and sometimes it is due to accidental occupational exposure and in a few cases it has some criminal intensions. This study is conducted to evaluate patients poisoned with aluminum phosphide. In the present study the medical records of cases of poisoning with rice tablets (aluminum phosphide) hospitalized in Ahvaz Razi hospital is studied. Accordingly, a checklist is prepared that included demographic information of patients (age, gender) and information on patient records (information on poisoning) are completed using the patients’ medical records. The analysis of data is done by SPSS V22. 18 patients poisoned with rice tablet (aluminum phosphide) are studied. Results of the study show that 11 patients are male and seven are female. The mean patient age is 27.06 ±8.04 years that is 28 ±9 and 25 ±6.02 in men and women respectively. Statistical tests show no statistically significant difference in mean age in both genders (P> 0.05). Among patients, 11 subjects took aluminum phosphide to attempt suicide and 3 cases took it unintentionally and of course the reason is not mentioned in four cases. Among the patients who tried to commit suicide by taking aluminum phosphide, 6 cases are male and 5 cases are female that no statistically significant difference is observed between the genders in this respect (P> 0.05). In addition to the study of the complications caused by this poisoning and its mortality, it is recommended to responsible authorities to provide the necessary educations and treatments to prevent this type of poisoning.

Limit tolerances for sums of measurement errors

2018 ◽  
Vol 934 (4) ◽  
pp. 59-62
Author(s):  
V.I. Salnikov
Keyword(s):  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Gaussian Distribution ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Limiting Values ◽  
Limiting Value

The question of calculating the limiting values of residuals in geodesic constructions is considered in the case when the limiting value for measurement errors is assumed equal to 3m, ie ∆рred = 3m, where m is the mean square error of the measurement. Larger errors are rejected. At present, the limiting value for the residual is calculated by the formula 3m√n, where n is the number of measurements. The article draws attention to two contradictions between theory and practice arising from the use of this formula. First, the formula is derived from the classical law of the normal Gaussian distribution, and it is applied to the truncated law of the normal distribution. And, secondly, as shown in [1], when ∆рred = 2m, the sums of errors naturally take the value equal to ?pred, after which the number of errors in the sum starts anew. This article establishes its validity for ∆рred = 3m. A table of comparative values of the tolerances valid and recommended for more stringent ones is given. The article gives a graph of applied and recommended tolerances for ∆рred = 3m.

scholarly journals Electrical stimulator with mechanomyography-based real-time monitoring, muscle fatigue detection, and safety shut-off: a pilot study

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 461-468
Author(s):  
Jannatul Naeem ◽  
Nur Azah Hamzaid ◽  
Amelia Wong Azman ◽  
Manfred Bijak
Keyword(s):  
Muscle Fatigue ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Isometric Force ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Clear Indication ◽  
Initial Value ◽  
Cord Injury ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Electrical Stimulator ◽  
Fatigue Detection

AbstractFunctional electrical stimulation (FES) has been used to produce force-related activities on the paralyzed muscle among spinal cord injury (SCI) individuals. Early muscle fatigue is an issue in all FES applications. If not properly monitored, overstimulation can occur, which can lead to muscle damage. A real-time mechanomyography (MMG)-based FES system was implemented on the quadriceps muscles of three individuals with SCI to generate an isometric force on both legs. Three threshold drop levels of MMG-root mean square (MMG-RMS) feature (thr50, thr60, and thr70; representing 50%, 60%, and 70% drop from initial MMG-RMS values, respectively) were used to terminate the stimulation session. The mean stimulation time increased when the MMG-RMS drop threshold increased (thr50: 22.7 s, thr60: 25.7 s, and thr70: 27.3 s), indicating longer sessions when lower performance drop was allowed. Moreover, at thr70, the torque dropped below 50% from the initial value in 14 trials, more than at thr50 and thr60. This is a clear indication of muscle fatigue detection using the MMG-RMS value. The stimulation time at thr70 was significantly longer (p = 0.013) than that at thr50. The results demonstrated that a real-time MMG-based FES monitoring system has the potential to prevent the onset of critical muscle fatigue in individuals with SCI in prolonged FES sessions.

Die Molekülstruktur des N-Chlorsdiwefeloxiddifluoridimids ClNSOF2 / The Molecular Structure of ClNSOF2

1974 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 901-904 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Oberhammer ◽  
O. Glemser ◽  
H. Klüver
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Structure ◽  
Electron Diffraction ◽  
Geometric Parameters ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
The Mean

The molecular structure of ClNSOF2 was determined by electron diffraction of gases. The following geometric parameters were obtained:Cl-N=1.715(5), S=N=1.484(7), S=O=1.394(3), S-F=1.548(3) Å, ∢ ClNS=114.7 (8), ∢ FSF=92.6(.8), ∢ NSF=111.8(.9) ∢ NSO=117.4 (3.1) and ∢ OSF=108.6 (.8)°. The results for the mean square amplitudes of vibration are given in the paper and an attempt is made to explain differences in corresponding parameters of some related molecules.

scholarly journals Prediction of shallow bit position based on vibration signal monitoring of bit broken rock

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 155014772199170
Author(s):  
Jinping Yu ◽  
Deyong Zou
Keyword(s):  
Acoustic Emission ◽  
Time Domain ◽  
Vibration Signal ◽  
Rock Breaking ◽  
Drill String ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Drilling Force ◽  
Emission Signal ◽  
Force Signal ◽  
The Mean

The speed of drilling has a great relationship with the rock breaking efficiency of the bit. Based on the above background, the purpose of this article is to predict the position of shallow bit based on the vibration signal monitoring of bit broken rock. In this article, first, the mechanical research of drill string is carried out; the basic changes of the main mechanical parameters such as the axial force, torque, and bending moment of drill string are clarified; and the dynamic equilibrium equation theory of drill string system is analyzed. According to the similarity criterion, the corresponding relationship between drilling process parameters and laboratory test conditions is determined. Then, the position monitoring test system of the vibration bit is established. The acoustic emission signal and the drilling force signal of the different positions of the bit in the process of vibration rock breaking are collected synchronously by the acoustic emission sensor and the piezoelectric force sensor. Then, the denoised acoustic emission signal and drilling force signal are analyzed and processed. The mean value, variance, and mean square value of the signal are calculated in the time domain. The power spectrum of the signal is analyzed in the frequency domain. The signal is decomposed by wavelet in the time and frequency domains, and the wavelet energy coefficients of each frequency band are extracted. Through the wavelet energy coefficient calculated by the model, combined with the mean, variance, and mean square error of time-domain signal, the position of shallow buried bit can be analyzed and predicted. Finally, by fitting the results of indoor experiment and simulation experiment, it can be seen that the stress–strain curve of rock failure is basically the same, and the error is about 3.5%, which verifies the accuracy of the model.

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