scholarly journals COVID-19: THREE PHASES OF THE PANDEMIC. Dynamics of cases, deaths and tests related to SARS-CoV-2 A systematic analysis of 213 countries and territories

Author(s):  
Mikhail Teppone

- Background. Since the previous study dealing with the case fatality ratio and infection fatality ratio caused by COVID-19, the author has received many comments that prompted the question: "Why did an optimistic prognosis fail?" To answer this question, a more detailed and expanded analysis was carried out in a new study. - Objective. To evaluate the dynamics of monthly numbers of cases, deaths, tests and CFR worldwide during three phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. - Material and Methods. Twenty three sets of databases, dated the 22nd of each month from January 2020 to November 2021, for 213 countries were collected from the Worldometer website. The number of cases, deaths, tests, CFR, IFR, etc. were counted for various periods of time for each of the 213 countries, then results related to different periods of time were compared. - Results. The analysis of the main epidemiological parameters led to the division of three phases of the global pandemic evolution. The first phase (23.01.20-22.07.20), the second phase (23.07.20-22.01.21) and the third phase (23.01.21-22.07.21) were different in terms of the number of tests performed, new cases, and mortality due to COVID-19. By the end of the secondphase, the worldwide statistics indicated the imminent end of the pandemic, but the third phase was characterized by a sudden rise in the number of new cases and deaths that could not be explained rationally. The most dramatic evolution of the epidemic curve occurred in the countries where doctors had successfully battled COVID-19 during the first two phases of the pandemic. - Conclusions. Despite the decrease in overall death numbers during the latest months analyzed, additional study is necessary to identify the cause for the increase in the number of new cases and deaths during the third phase of the pandemic. Only complete information regarding the positive and negative impact of medical and non-medical methods of diagnostics and prophylaxis of COVID-19 can help to organize effective measures to end the current pandemic and prevent a similar one from occurring in the future. Presumably, there are several causes of the negative evolution of the current pandemic, including the overreliance on PCR tests, application of non-specialized premises for quarantine and treatment, decrease in herd and individual immunity, inadequate change of therapeutic protocols, and ignoring prophylactic treatment. It can be suggested that the use of immunemodulatory drugs, for example, thymus extract or thymic peptides, in groups of people with compromised immunity is necessary, and prophylactic and therapeutic protocols should be changed from the 'standard' types to 'personalized' ones.

1995 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 202-204
Author(s):  
Edith Greene

This article describes an undergraduate course on abortion, one of the most contentious social issues of our time. The course focuses on the psychological aspects of abortion for adolescents and women who choose legal abortions, the consequences of denied abortions on unwanted children, and psychological ramifications of alternatives to abortion. Three phases of the course are described. In the introductory phase, I lectured on how scientific evidence about abortion is derived and should be scrutinized. In the second phase, students read and discussed historical and legal writings on abortion. In the third phase, students wrote analytical papers and gave group presentations. Evaluations of the course are included.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khattab M. Ali Alheeti ◽  
Duaa Al_Dosary ◽  
Salah Sleibi Al-Rawi

An intelligent wheelchair application is required which is equipped with the MEMSs which are magnetometer, gyroscope, and accelerometer sensors. The generated process of ICMetrics number is heavily based on magnetometer, gyroscope, and accelerometer sensors. In addition, this number can be utilised to provide the identification of device. Our proposed system passed through three phases. The first phase is bias reading that was extracted from MEMSs (gyroscope, magnetometer, and accelerometers) sensors; whereas, in the second phase, ICMetric number is generated by using the sensor bias readings that was extracted in the first phase. Therefore, this number is non-stored and can be utilised to provide identification of device. In the third phase, the security system is tested/evaluated to measure its effectivity. In other words, it is tested with dataset that was extracted from the trace file of ns-2. In this phase, performance metrics are calculated, which are rate of error, confused metrics, and accuracy.


Babel ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivana Lončar ◽  
Anita Pavić Pintarić

Abstract This paper deals with the challenge of developing a multilingual dictionary of touristic-cultural terms with Croatian as the source language, based on the principles of lexicography which include the rigorous metalexicographic methodology and the practical needs of users (tourism professionals, managers, teachers, and students of philological careers, as well as those related to tourism and hospitality). The project, broadly speaking, is divided into three phases. The current, first phase of research includes the elaboration of a corpus comprising a series of terms, simple units, or expressions from different areas with special attention to the realia of the source language, which do not exist in the target languages (German, English, Spanish and others). The second phase will involve the lemmatization of entries, their classification, the elaboration of appendices, and the modeling of parameters and definers that will be used in the lexicographical definition. The third phase covers the elaboration of the microstructure. At this stage, special emphasis will be placed on the type of lexicographic definitions (and their combinations) that will be used in the dictionary. It is expected that the dictionary would have photographic materials under copyright.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
José María Salvador-Gonzalez

St. Bonaventure asserts that man can ascend contemplatively to God through three phases. The first one is to contemplate God outside us by appreciating the corporeal things as vestiges of the deity: this is the “immanent” phase of Bonaventure’s Aesthetics, framed by the first and second stages of contemplation of God. The second phase consists of entering into our soul, as a spiritual image of God: this intermediate phase, in which we can contemplate God inside ourselves by his image in our soul, constitutes the Seraphic’s “introspective” Aesthetics, with the third and fourth stages of contemplation of God. In the third phase, man, transcending the vestiges in objects and the image of the deity in his soul, elevates himself to God, contemplating him as the spiritual and eternal First Principle: that third phase constitutes the Bonaventure’s “transcendent” Aesthetics, in which man can contemplate God considering his essential attributes (fifth stage) and his personal properties (sixth stage). The current article aims to highlight this fifth stage of Bonaventure’s Aesthetics. To achieve this goal, we analyze step by step the reasoning that, to prove his thesis, our author exposes in Chapter 5 of his Itinerarium mentis in Deum.


2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 332-343
Author(s):  
Mohammed Aldelgawy

Recently, many problems regarding differential settlement for newly constructed buildings in Fayoum city, Egypt have been monitored. This research presents an applied technique for utilizing total station in observing horizontal and vertical movements happening by time for some building in Fayoum city. The building was monitored for thirty three months divided into three phases. In the first phase, façade of building was observed for four and half months to monitor differential settlement and take the right decision for resolving differential settlement problem. The second phase was the execution of that decision. Time for second phase was four and half months. Finally, in the third phase façade of building was reobserved for two years in order to make sure that the movement of façade points was stopped. The obtained results showed that the used technique provided a powerful and efficient tool to observe movements of façade points by time.


2000 ◽  
Vol 01 (04) ◽  
pp. 303-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
TEOFILO F. GONZALEZ

We consider the multimessage multicasting over the n processor complete (or fully connected) static network when the forwarding of messages is allowed, and initially each processor only knows the messages it needs to send and their destinations. We present an efficient distributed algorithm to route the messages for every degree d problem instance with total expected communication time O(d + log n), where d is the maximum number of messages that each processor may send (or receive). Our routing algorithm consists of three phases. In the first phase the processors exchange messages to learn some basic global information. In the second phase each processor forwards its messages to transform the problem to a multimessage unicasting problem of degree d. The third phase uses a well known distributed algorithm to transmit all the resulting unicasting messages.


1981 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert W. Gibson ◽  
Roger Arnold

The development of auditing standards in Australia occurred in three phases. The primary professional initiatives have come from the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia. The first phase was marked by F. E. Trigg's presentation to the Australian Congress on Accounting in 1948. In this work Trigg relied heavily on English practice and thought. The second phase was largely a period of inactivity so far as auditing standards were concerned because of concern for other matters of greater urgency. The third phase was marked by the adoption of American ideas and, partly in response to continuing criticism of accounting, a commitment to the continuing review of auditing standards.


2019 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-70
Author(s):  
Sabrina P. Ramet ◽  
Vladimir Đorđević

In the Czech lands (included in Czechoslovakia until the end of 1992), rock music has evolved through three phases. In the first phase, lasting until 1968, rock musicians had no ambition to offer social or political commentaries. This began as the era of rock ‘n’ roll, which is to say music being performed for dancing. The second phase began after the Soviet bloc invasion of Czechoslovakia in August 1968, lasting until the end of the communist era in 1989. In this phase, rock musicians (no longer playing rock ‘n’ roll were closely monitored by the authorities and were expected to sing happy songs, submitting their song texts to the authorities for approval in advance of performing them. In spite of this control, some rock groups purposefully sang political texts in the 1970s and 1980s, mocking or criticizing the communists, albeit often cryptically. Finally, in the third phase — since 1989 — having lost their ideological foe, Czech rock groups have for the most part become politically disengaged.


Author(s):  
Marc Zimmerman

This chapter discusses U.S. Puerto Rican literature, which can be divided into three phases, preceded by a kind of “pre-phase.” The pre-phase, extending from the last century, consists of exiles from the independence struggle against Spain. These include major intellectuals who mainly wrote about their Caribbean struggles and reflected critically on the New York experience of arriving Puerto Rican nationals. The first phase, extending from 1917 to 1945, is mainly of autobiographical and journalistic works expressing the efforts of first-generation migrants to adjust to U.S. life. The period of migration from 1945 to 1965 constitutes the second phase, when radical exile writers mainly wrote a literature of exile with hardly any bilingualisms and only limited reference to the migration experience. Lastly, the third phase “effectively draws together the firsthand testimonial of the ‘pioneer’ stage and the fictional, imaginative approach of the writers of the 1950s or 1960s.”


Muzikologija ◽  
2002 ◽  
pp. 201-220
Author(s):  
Jelena Jovanovic

The Serbian ethnomusicologist and music pedagogue Miodrag A. Vasiljevic corresponded with colleagues from neighboring Bulgaria between 1934 and 1962. This exchange of letters went through three phases. The first phase was linked with his stay in Skopje until the breakout of World War II; during the second phase - in the course of the 1940's - he was active in the Department for Folk Music at Radio Belgrade and he founded his method of music teaching on traditional Serbian music; in the third phase (the 1950's and beginning of 1960's) Vasiljevic aimed at a closer cooperation with Bulgarian musicians. All the phases are characterized by his pronounced interest in the folk music heritage of Balkan peoples. At the beginning that interest was focused on popularizing art music that was based on folk music. Later, he enthusiastically carried out his reforms of music teaching in Serbia, as well as improvements of methods in Serbian ethnomusicology.


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