scholarly journals Dampak Kenaikan Tarif Dasar Listrik Terhadap Kinerja Sektor Pertanian di Indonesia dalam Jangka Pendek dan Panjang

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 36
Author(s):  
Sahara Sahara
Keyword(s):  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Agricultural Product ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Industry Output ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Industry Sectors

Increasing on electricity price by Indonesian Government in 2001 by 17.47% and 2002 by 24% not only has negative impact on industry sectors but also on agricultural sectors. This paper aims to analysis impact on agricultural sectors performance with using a Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model, namely “INDOF model”. The simulation indicates both in the short run and long run increasing on electricity price will reduce industry output, household consumption and employment in agricultural sectors. Besides that the policy will increase price of agricultural product. The negative impacts except household consumption are higher in the long run than that in the short run.

scholarly journals Exploring the Tourism-Poverty Alleviation Nexus in the Brics Groupof Nations

Ekonomika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-109
Author(s):  
Rufaro Garidzirai ◽  
Tafadzwa Matiza
Keyword(s):  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Control Variable ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Positive Sign ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Tourism Arrivals

The tourism-poverty alleviation nexus is becoming an increasingly significant subject of academic inquiry within the tourism economics discourse. Using time series data from the World Bank (1995–2017) in a P-ARDL model, the present study explores the relationship between tourism (receipts from exports, the travel subsector, hospitality and accommodation subsector) and poverty alleviation (final household consumption) with tourism arrivals as the control variable within the context of the BRICS group. The results suggest that receipts from the travel subsector and exports met the a priori expectation – positively influencing poverty alleviation within BRICS nations in the long run. Contrastingly, receipts from the hospitality and accommodation subsector did not meet the a priori expectation of a positive sign, with the results indicating statistical insignificance in the long run. However, receipts from the hospitality and accommodation were found to only influence poverty alleviation in the short run. Relatedly, the results suggest that increases in consumption associated with growth in tourism arrivals did not influence poverty in the BRICS. The results point to the heterogeneity of the influence of tourism on poverty alleviation, whereby certain dimensions of tourism contribute to poverty alleviation in the long run and others do so in the short run. Based on these findings it is recommended that BRICS countries harness their tourism potential and promote intra-BRICS tourism to maximise the positive impact of travel and tourism export receipts on household consumption, which catalyses poverty alleviation.

scholarly journals Tourism taxes and negative externalities in tourism in australia: A CGE approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 200-214
Author(s):  
Ranjith Ihalanayake
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Cge Model ◽  
Negative Externalities ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Australian Economy ◽  
Short Run

In this paper we analyse general equilibrium effects of an increase in a tourism tax which we hypothetically designed to internalise negative externalities of international tourism in Australia. Several simulations were carried out using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Australian economy. The simulations were carried out assuming two different economic environments, the short-run and the long-run. The simulation results suggest that due to an increase in tourism taxes, the international tourism sector tends to contract while the other sectors expand. Overall, an increase in tourism taxes appears to be welfare improving in the long-run though it generates a marginal contraction in overall economic activities in the short run.

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment, External Debt, and Balance of Payment: A Causality Analysis for Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Mahmud Mostafa
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Short Run

The purpose of this study is to analyze the causal relationship of external debt and balance of payment with foreign direct investment (FDI) in Bangladesh for the period of 1980 to 2017 through the application of Johansen Cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger Causality approach. Results of cointegration and VECM indicate a significant long-run relationship between dependent (FDI) and independent variables (external debt and balance of payment). External debt is found to have a significant negative impact on FDI in the long-run, but it is found insignificant in the short-run. In contrast, the balance of payment has a significant positive effect on FDI both in the long-run and short-run. Results of the Granger causality test reveal that there exists bidirectional short-run causality between the balance of payment and FDI; that is, both the balance of payment and FDI affect each other. But no unidirectional or bidirectional short-run causality is found between external debt and FDI. Keywords: FDI, external debt, balance of payment, cointegration, VECM, causality

COVID-19 pandemic and connectedness across financial markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Abubakr Naeem ◽  
Saba Sehrish ◽  
Mabel D. Costa
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Momentum Trading

Purpose This study aims to estimate the time–frequency connectedness among global financial markets. It draws a comparison between the full sample and the sample during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach The study uses the connectedness framework of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and Barunik and Krehlik (2018), both of which consider time and frequency connectedness and show that spillover is specific to not only the time domain but also the frequency (short- and long-run) domain. The analysis also includes pairwise connectedness by making use of network analysis. Daily data on the MSCI World Index, Barclays Bloomberg Global Treasury Index, Oil future, Gold future, Dow Jones World Islamic Index and Bitcoin have been used over the period from May 01, 2013 to July 31, 2020. Findings This study finds that cryptocurrency, bond and gold are hedges against both conventional stocks and Islamic stocks on average; however, these are not “safe havens” during an economic crisis, i.e. COVID-19. External shocks, such as COVID-19, strengthen the return connectedness among all six financial markets. Research limitations/implications For investors, the study provides important insights that during external shocks such as COVID-19, there is a spillover effect, and investors are unable to hedge risk between conventional stocks and Islamic stocks. These so-called safe haven investment alternatives suffer from the similar negative impact of systemic financial risk. However, during an external shock such as COVID-19, cryptocurrencies, bonds and gold can be used to hedge risk against conventional stocks, Islamic stocks and oil. Moreover, the findings imply that by engaging in momentum trading, active investors can gain short-run benefits before the market processes any new information. Originality/value The study contributes to the emergent literature investigating the connectedness among financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. It provides evidence that the return connectedness among six global financial markets, namely, conventional stocks, Islamic stocks, bond, oil, gold and cryptocurrency, is extremely strong. From a methodological standpoint, this study finds that COVID-19 pandemic shock has a significant short-run impact on the connectedness among financial markets.

Money and Household Consumption Expenditure in Developing Asia: Some Panel ARDL Evidence

2021 ◽  
pp. 001946622110624
Author(s):  
Ghanashyama Mahanty ◽  
Himanshu Sekhar Rout ◽  
Swayam Prava Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Final Consumption ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The role of money in influencing real economic activities has been a long-standing debate in macroeconomics. As per the Keynesian theory, household consumption expenditure plays a significant role in promoting economic growth. Given the rapid consumption-led growth pattern in the emerging Asia Pacific region, in this article, we attempt to assess the role of money in influencing household consumption expenditure, which propels economic growth. We employ a panel data set from 2005–2018 for 10 emerging Asian economies, covering Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam. Given the region’s heterogeneous nature, we employ a variant of the popular St Louise equation model with autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) panel framework based on pooled mean group (PMG) and dynamic fixed effect (DFE) models developed by Pesaran and Shin to study the underlying relationships. Both PMG and DFE models suggest a strong positive relationship between money and household consumption expenditure both in the long run and short run. After allowing for control variables such as government final consumption expenditure and interest rate, the relationships continue to hold steady. Further, the relationship holds true across both narrow (M1) and broad money (M3) measures. The government final consumption expenditure and interest rates do not have influence on household consumption expenditure in the long run, but they have an influence in the short run. JEL Codes: C23, O16, O47, E51, E31, E21

The effectiveness of government expenditure on economic growth in Botswana

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 368-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kafayat Amusa ◽  
Mutiu Abimbola Oyinlola
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth in Botswana over the period 1985‒2016. The study employed the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach in investigating the nexus. The study makes the argument that the effectiveness of public spending should be assessed not only against the amount of the expenditure but also by the type of the expenditure. The empirical findings showed that aggregate expenditure has a negative short-run and positive long-run effect on economic growth. When expenditure is disaggregated, both forms of expenditures have a positive short-run effect on economic growth, whereas only a long-run positive impact of recurrent expenditure is observed. The study suggests the need to prioritize scarce resources in productive recurrent and development spending that enables increased productivity. Design/methodology/approach This study examined the effectiveness of government spending in Botswana, within an ARDL framework from 1985 to 2016. To achieve this, the analysis is carried out on both an aggregate and disaggregated level. Government spending is divided into recurrent and development expenditures. Findings This study examined the effectiveness of government spending in Botswana, within an ARDL framework from 1985 to 2016. To achieve this, the analysis hinged on both the aggregate and disaggregated levels. The results of the aggregate analysis suggest that total public expenditure has a negative impact on economic growth in the short run; however, its impact becomes positive over the long run. On disaggregating government spending, the results show that both recurrent and development expenditures have a significant positive short-run impact on growth; however, in the long run, the significant positive impact is only observed for recurrent expenditure. Practical implications The results provide evidence of the diverse effects of government expenditure in the country. In the period under investigation, 73 percent of total government expenditure in Botswana was recurrent in nature, whereas 23 percent was related to development. From the results, it can be observed that although the recurrent expenditure has contributed to increased growth and must be encouraged, it is also pertinent for the Botswana Government to endeavor to place more emphasis on productive development expenditure in order to enhance short- and long-term growth. Further, there is a need to strengthen the growth-enhancing structures and to prioritize the scarce economic resources toward productive spending and ensuring continued proper governance over such expenditures. Originality/value The study provides empirical evidence on the effectiveness of government spending in a small open, resource-reliant middle-income SSA economy and argues that the effectiveness of public spending must be assessed not only against the amount of the expenditure but also on the type or composition of the expenditure. The study contributes to the scant empirical literature on Botswana by employing the ARDL approach to cointegration technique in estimating the long- and short-run impact of government expenditure on economic growth between 1985 and 2016.

Is a Corruption Crackdown Really Good for the Economy? Firm-Level Evidence from China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiyuan Chen ◽  
Xin Jin ◽  
Xu Xu
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Foreign Firms ◽  
Private Firms ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Personal Connections ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
The Impact

Abstract We study the impact of anticorruption efforts on firm performance, exploiting an unanticipated corruption crackdown in China’s Heilongjiang province in 2004. We compare firms in the affected regions with those in other inland regions before and after the crackdown. Our main finding is an overall negative impact of the crackdown on firm productivity and entry rates. Furthermore, these negative impacts are mainly experienced by private and foreign firms, while state-owned firms are mostly unaffected. We present evidence concerning two potential explanations for our findings. First, the corruption crackdown may have limited bribery opportunities that helped private firms operate. Second, the corruption crackdown may have interfered with personal connections between private firms and government officials to a greater extent than institutional connections between state-owned firms and the government. Overall, our findings suggest that corruption crackdowns may not restore efficiency in the economy, but instead lead to worse economic outcomes, at least in the short run (JEL L2, M1, O1).

scholarly journals THE impact of remittance inflows on poverty in Botswana: an ARDL approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mercy. T. Musakwa ◽  
N. M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe growing pressure on governments to reduce poverty among other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through harnessing domestic and foreign sources has motivated studies on the relationship between poverty and different economic variables in many developing countries. This study investigates the impact of remittance on poverty in Botswana, employing time-series data from 1980 to 2017. The study employs two poverty proxies—household consumption expenditure and infant mortality rate to capture poverty in its multidimensional form and improve the robustness of the results. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, the study finds that remittance inflows reduce poverty in Botswana—both in the short run and in the long run when infant mortality rate is used as a proxy. However, when poverty is measured by household consumption expenditure, remittance was found to have no impact on poverty in the short run and in the long run. The study, therefore, concludes that remittance inflows play a crucial role in reducing poverty and that Botswana can benefit immensely from the surge in remittance inflows by putting in place policies and structures that support remittance inflow.

scholarly journals Milk Supply Response in Delaware

1980 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Joachim Elterich ◽  
Sharif Masud
Keyword(s):  
Milk Production ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Milk Supply ◽  
Supply Response ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Milk Cows ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

Milk supply response by dairy farmers in Delaware was analyzed employing distributed lag price structures for number of milk cows and milk production per cow. A polynominal distributed lag model is fitted to quarterly data with deflated prices for the period 1966 to 1978. The variations in the number of milk cows is explained by about 98 percent. Farmers react positively to milk prices after 1–2 years, while wages and feed prices have a negative impact on cow numbers. Milk production per cow shows positive adjustments to milk prices after 6 to 15 months. Technology and feed prices influence also milk production While the short-run price elasticity of milk production is only .2, the long-run aggregate elasticity grows to 2.8 percent. Intermediate-run projections of milk supply were also performed with the model.

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