Analysis of Flood Inundation in Ungauged Mountainous River Basins: A Case Study of an Extreme Rain Event on 5–6 July 2017 in Northern Kyushu, Japan

The heavy rainfall event that occurred on 5–6 July 2017 in Northern Kyushu, Japan, caused extensive flooding across several mountainous river basins and resulted in fatalities and extensive damage to infrastructure along those rivers. For the periods before and during the extreme event, there are no hydrological observations for many of the flooded river basins, most of which are small and located in mountainous regions. We used the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model, a physically based model, to acquire more detailed information about the hydrological processes in the flood-affected ungauged mountain basins. We calibrated the GSSHA model using data from an adjacent gauged river basin, and then applied it to several small ungauged basins without changing the parameters of the model. We simulated the gridded flow and generated a map of the possible maximum flood depth across the basins. By comparing the extent of flood-affected areas from the model with data of the Japanese Geospatial Information Authority (GSI), we found that the maximum flood inundation areas of the river networks estimated by the GSSHA model are sometimes less than those estimated by the GSI, as the influence of landslides and erosion was not considered in the modeling. The model accuracy could be improved by taking these factors into account, although this task would be challenging. The results indicated that simulations of flood inundation in ungauged mountain river basins could contribute to disaster management during extreme rain events.