Vector-Autoregression Simulation Study of Multiple Shocks on Louisiana’s Economic Performance

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (03) ◽  
pp. 73-79
Author(s):  
Negar Dahi Taleghani ◽  
Mayank Tyagi
2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 697-712 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. B. M. Kraak ◽  
F. C. Buisman ◽  
M. Dickey-Collas ◽  
J. J. Poos ◽  
M. A. Pastoors ◽  
...  

Abstract Kraak, S. B. M., Buisman, F. C., Dickey-Collas, M., Poos, J. J., Pastoors, M. A., Smit, J. G. P., van Oostenbrugge, J. A. E., and Daan, N. 2008. The effect of management choices on the sustainability and economic performance of a mixed fishery: a simulation study. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 65: 697–712. Alternative management scenarios were evaluated in a simulation framework that mimicked the recent exploitation of sole and plaice in the North Sea. A large proportion of plaice is taken as bycatch of the beam trawl fleet targeting sole, yet current management of the two stocks assumes no interaction in their exploitation. The evaluation criteria included biological and economic sustainability, and stability in the management measures. The fishery was assumed to respond to management restrictions by dropping the least profitable trips. We investigated two contrasting management strategies, single-species total allowable catches, and effort regulation. Under the assumptions made, the latter strategy performed better. The results suggest that, given assessment error and bias, a strategy that accounts for the mixed nature of a fishery and that occasionally results in perceived underexploitation may work best. Stability in fishing mortality reinforces itself, through lower assessment bias, and management corrections become less frequent. The common assumption in many stock assessments in EC waters that fishing mortality in the most recent year should resemble the value obtained in previous years (“shrinkage”) had a negative effect on the stability of control measures.


2019 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gatot Sasongko ◽  
Andrian Dolfriandra Huruta

Two closely watched indicators of economic performance are inflation and unemployment. This study empirically analyzes the causality between inflation and unemployment in Indonesia during 1984 to 2017. The data were gathered from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics. Methodologically, this study employed the Granger Causality test and Vector Autoregression to determine the causality between inflation and unemployment. The results show that there is a one-way causality between inflation and unemployment. The findings imply that unemployment causes inflation, but not vice versa. Next inflation and unemployment are also closely related to other determining factors, such as season, household income, and the decisions to attend school or to perform the housekeeping.


2006 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander von Eye

At the level of manifest categorical variables, a large number of coefficients and models for the examination of rater agreement has been proposed and used. The most popular of these is Cohen's κ. In this article, a new coefficient, κ s , is proposed as an alternative measure of rater agreement. Both κ and κ s allow researchers to determine whether agreement in groups of two or more raters is significantly beyond chance. Stouffer's z is used to test the null hypothesis that κ s = 0. The coefficient κ s allows one, in addition to evaluating rater agreement in a fashion parallel to κ, to (1) examine subsets of cells in agreement tables, (2) examine cells that indicate disagreement, (3) consider alternative chance models, (4) take covariates into account, and (5) compare independent samples. Results from a simulation study are reported, which suggest that (a) the four measures of rater agreement, Cohen's κ, Brennan and Prediger's κ n , raw agreement, and κ s are sensitive to the same data characteristics when evaluating rater agreement and (b) both the z-statistic for Cohen's κ and Stouffer's z for κ s are unimodally and symmetrically distributed, but slightly heavy-tailed. Examples use data from verbal processing and applicant selection.


Methodology ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregor Sočan

Abstract. When principal component solutions are compared across two groups, a question arises whether the extracted components have the same interpretation in both populations. The problem can be approached by testing null hypotheses stating that the congruence coefficients between pairs of vectors of component loadings are equal to 1. Chan, Leung, Chan, Ho, and Yung (1999) proposed a bootstrap procedure for testing the hypothesis of perfect congruence between vectors of common factor loadings. We demonstrate that the procedure by Chan et al. is both theoretically and empirically inadequate for the application on principal components. We propose a modification of their procedure, which constructs the resampling space according to the characteristics of the principal component model. The results of a simulation study show satisfactory empirical properties of the modified procedure.


Methodology ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jochen Ranger ◽  
Jörg-Tobias Kuhn

In this manuscript, a new approach to the analysis of person fit is presented that is based on the information matrix test of White (1982) . This test can be interpreted as a test of trait stability during the measurement situation. The test follows approximately a χ2-distribution. In small samples, the approximation can be improved by a higher-order expansion. The performance of the test is explored in a simulation study. This simulation study suggests that the test adheres to the nominal Type-I error rate well, although it tends to be conservative in very short scales. The power of the test is compared to the power of four alternative tests of person fit. This comparison corroborates that the power of the information matrix test is similar to the power of the alternative tests. Advantages and areas of application of the information matrix test are discussed.


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