A Novel Risk Model of Mortality and Hospitalization of Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy in Patients with Non-ischemic Cardiomyopathy: the Alpha-score
Abstract Background Non-ischemic cardiomyopathy (NICM) has been associated with a better LV reverse remodeling response and better clinical outcomes after cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). The aims of our study were to identify the predictors of mortality and heart failure hospitalization in patients treated with CRT and design a risk score for prognosis. Methods A cohort of 422 consecutive NICM patients with CRT was retrospectively enrolled between January 2010 and December 2017. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality and the secondary endpoint was heart failure hospitalization. Results In a multivariate analysis the predictors of all-cause death were left atrial diameter [Hazard ratio (HR): 1.056, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.020-1.093, P=0.002], non-left bundle branch block (HR: 1.793, 95% CI: 1.131-2.844, P =0.013), high sensitivity C-reactive protein (HR: 1.081, 95% CI: 1.029-1.134 P= 0.002), and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide per 100 pg/ml (HR: 1.018, 95% CI: 1.007-1.030, P =0.002), NYHA IV (HR: 1.018, 95% CI: 1.007-1.030, P =0.002). The Alpha-score (Atrial diameter, non-LBBB, ProBNP, Hs-CRP, NYHA class IV) was derived from each independent risk factor. The novel score had better calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P >0.05) and discrimination for both all cause-death and heart transplantation [c-statistics: 0.749 (95% CI: 0.694-0.804), P <0.001] or heart failure hospitalization [c-statistics: 0.692 (95% CI: 0.639-0.745), P <0.001]. Conclusion The Alpha-score may enable better discrimination and accurate prediction of long-term outcomes among NICM patients with CRT.