scholarly journals Habitat suitability modelling to assess the introductions of Aedes albopictus (Diptera, Culicidae) in the Netherlands

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adolfo Ibañez-Justicia ◽  
Juan Diego Alcaraz-Hernández ◽  
Ron van Lammeren ◽  
Constantianus J.M. Koenraadt ◽  
Aldo Bergsma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Aedes Albopictus ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Lst Model

Abstract Background In the Netherlands, Aedes albopictus has been found each year since 2010 during routine exotic mosquito species surveillance at companies that import used tires. We developed habitat suitability models to investigate the potential risk of establishment and spread of this invasive species at these locations. Methods We used two methodologies: first, a species distribution model based on the maximum entropy modelling approach (MaxEnt) taking into consideration updated occurrence data of the species in Europe, and second, a spatial logic conditional model based on the temperature requirements of the species and using land surface temperature data (LST model). Results Suitability assessment obtained with the MaxEnt model at European level accurately reflect the current distribution of the species and these results also depict moderately low values in parts of the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, the British islands and southern parts of Scandinavia. Winter temperature was the variable that contributed most to the performance of the model (47.3%). The results of the LST model show that 1) coastal areas are suitable for overwintering of eggs, 2) large areas in the northern part of the country have a low suitability for adult survival, and 3) the entire country is suitable for successful completion of the life cycle if the species is introduced after the winter months. Results of the LST model reveal that temperatures in 2012 and 2014 did not limit the overwintering of eggs or survival of adults at the locations where the species was found. By contrast, for the years 2010, 2011 and 2013, overwintering of eggs at these locations is considered unlikely. Conclusions Results using two modelling methodologies show differences in predicted habitat suitability values. Based on the results of both models, the climatic conditions could hamper the successful overwintering of eggs of Ae. albopictus and their survival as adults in many areas of the country. However, during warm years with mild winters, many areas of the Netherlands offer climatic conditions suitable for developing populations. Regular updates of the models, using updated occurrence and climatic data, are recommended to study the areas at risk.

scholarly journals Habitat suitability modelling to assess the introductions of Aedes albopictus (Diptera, Culicidae) in the Netherlands

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adolfo Ibañez-Justicia ◽  
Juan Diego Alcaraz-Hernández ◽  
Ron van Lammeren ◽  
Constantianus J.M. Koenraadt ◽  
Aldo Bergsma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Aedes Albopictus ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Lst Model

Abstract BackgroundIn the Netherlands, Aedes albopictus has been found each year since 2010 during routine exotic mosquito species surveillance at companies that import used tires. We developed habitat suitability models to investigate the potential risk of establishment and spread of this invasive species at these locations. MethodsWe used two methodologies: first, a species distribution model based on the maximum entropy modelling approach (MaxEnt) taking into consideration updated occurrence data of the species in Europe, and second, a spatial logic conditional model based on the temperature requirements of the species and using Land Surface Temperature data (LST model). For model output comparison, we extracted the results of both models accordingly to the spatial extent of the Netherlands. ResultsResults obtained with the MaxEnt model at European level accurately reflect the observed current distribution of the species and also depicts moderately low values in parts of the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, the British islands and southern parts of Scandinavia. Winter temperature was the variable that contributed most to the performance of the model (47.3%). The results of the LST model show that 1) coastal areas are suitable for overwintering of eggs, 2) large areas in the northern part of the country have a low suitability for adult survival, and 3) the entire country is suitable for successful completion of the life cycle if the species is introduced after the winter months. Results of the LST model reveal that temperatures in 2012 and 2014 did not limit the overwintering of eggs or survival of adults at the used tire companies where the species was found. By contrast, for the years 2010, 2011 and 2013, overwintering of eggs at these locations is not considered likely.ConclusionsResults using two modelling methodologies show differences in predicted habitat suitability values. Based on the results of both models, the climatic conditions could hamper the successful overwintering of eggs of Ae. albopictus and their survival as adults in many areas of the country. However, during warm years with mild winters, many areas of the Netherlands, including used tire companies locations, offer climatic conditions suitable for developing populations. Regular updates of the models, using updated occurrence and climatic data, are recommended to study the areas at risk.

scholarly journals A Bioclimate-Based Maximum Entropy Model for Comperiella calauanica Barrion, Almarinez and Amalin (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) in the Philippines

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
Billy Joel M. Almarinez ◽  
Mary Jane A. Fadri ◽  
Richard Lasina ◽  
Mary Angelique A. Tavera ◽  
Thaddeus M. Carvajal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Biological Control Agent ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Field Surveys ◽  
Probability Of Occurrence ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables

Comperiella calauanica is a host-specific endoparasitoid and effective biological control agent of the diaspidid Aspidiotus rigidus, whose outbreak from 2010 to 2015 severely threatened the coconut industry in the Philippines. Using the maximum entropy (Maxent) algorithm, we developed a species distribution model (SDM) for C. calauanica based on 19 bioclimatic variables, using occurrence data obtained mostly from field surveys conducted in A. rigidus-infested areas in Luzon Island from 2014 to 2016. The calculated the area under the ROC curve (AUC) values for the model were very high (0.966, standard deviation = 0.005), indicating the model’s high predictive power. Precipitation seasonality was found to have the highest relative contribution to model development. Response curves produced by Maxent suggested the positive influence of mean temperature of the driest quarter, and negative influence of precipitation of the driest and coldest quarters on habitat suitability. Given that C. calauanica has been found to always occur with A. rigidus in Luzon Island due to high host-specificity, the SDM for the parasitoid may also be considered and used as a predictive model for its host. This was confirmed through field surveys conducted between late 2016 and early 2018, which found and confirmed the occurrence of A. rigidus in three areas predicted by the SDM to have moderate to high habitat suitability or probability of occurrence of C. calauanica: Zamboanga City in Mindanao; Isabela City in Basilan Island; and Tablas Island in Romblon. This validation in the field demonstrated the utility of the bioclimate-based SDM for C. calauanica in predicting habitat suitability or probability of occurrence of A. rigidus in the Philippines.

scholarly journals Optimization of the Fuzzy Matter Element Method for Predicting Species Suitability Distribution Based on Environmental Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3444 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quanzhong Zhang ◽  
Haiyan Wei ◽  
Zefang Zhao ◽  
Jing Liu ◽  
Qiao Ran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Suitability Index ◽  
Biological Laws ◽  
Experimental Process ◽  
Key Variables

Over the years, with the efforts of many researchers, the field of species distribution model (SDM) has been well explored. The model of fuzzy matter elements (FME), which, combined with GIS to predict species distribution, has received extensive attention since its emergence. Based on previous studies, this paper improved FME, extended the scope of the membership degree and habitat suitability index, and explored the unsuitable areas of species. We have enhanced the limitation effect of key variables on species habitats, making the operation of FME more consistent with biological laws. By optimizing the FME, it could avoid the accumulation of predicted errors with multi-variables, and make the predicted results more reasonable. In this study, Gynostemma pentaphyllum (Thunb.) Makino was used as an example. The experimental process used several major environmental variables (climate, soil, and terrain variables) to predict the habitat suitability distribution of G. pentaphyllum in China for its current and future period, which includes the period of 2050s (average for 2041–2060) and 2070s (average for 2061–2080) under representative concentration pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5). The results of the analysis showed that the model performed well with a high accuracy by reducing the redundancy of the environmental data. The study could relieve the reliance on a large database of environmental information and propose a new approach for protecting the G. pentaphyllum in unsuitable areas under climate change.

scholarly journals Habitat suitability modelling to assess the introductions of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Netherlands

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adolfo Ibáñez-Justicia ◽  
Juan Diego Alcaraz-Hernández ◽  
Ron van Lammeren ◽  
Constantianus J. M. Koenraadt ◽  
Aldo Bergsma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Aedes Albopictus ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Habitat Suitability Modelling

scholarly journals Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Endangered Cypripedium japonicum in China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 429
Author(s):  
Yadong Xu ◽  
Yi Huang ◽  
Huiru Zhao ◽  
Meiling Yang ◽  
Yuqi Zhuang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
The Impact

Cypripedium japonicum is an endangered terrestrial orchid species with high ornamental and medicinal value. As global warming continues to intensify, the survival of C. japonicum will be further challenged. Understanding the impact of climate change on its potential distribution is of great significance to conserve this species. In this study, we established an ensemble species distribution model based on occurrence records of C. japonicum and 13 environmental variables to predict its potential distribution under current and future climatic conditions. The results show that the true skill statistic (TSS), Cohen’s kappa statistic (Kappa), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of the ensemble model were 0.968, 0.906, and 0.995, respectively, providing more robust predictions. The key environmental variables affecting the distribution of C. japonicum were the precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) and the mean temperature in the driest quarter (Bio9). Under future climatic conditions, the total suitable habitat of C. japonicum will increase slightly and tend to migrate northwestward, but the highly suitable areas will be severely lost. By 2070, the loss of its highly suitable habitat area will reach 57.69–72.24% under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 respectively, and the highly suitable habitats in Zhejiang and Anhui will almost disappear. It is noteworthy that the highly suitable habitat of C. japonicum has never crossed the Qinba mountainous area during the migration process of the suitable habitat to the northwest. Meanwhile, as the best-preserved area of highly suitable habitat for C. japonicum in the future, the Qinba mountainous area is of great significance to protect the wild germplasm resources of C. japonicum. In addition, we found that most of the changes predicted for 2070 will already be seen in 2050; the problem of climate change may be more urgent than it is believed.

scholarly journals Associations Between Habitat Quality And Body Size In The Carpathian Land Snail Vestia turgida: Species Distribution Model Selection And Assessment Of Performance

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Tytar ◽  
O. Baidashnikov
Keyword(s):  
Body Size ◽  
Habitat Quality ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Land Snail ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Additive Regression

Species distribution models (SDMs) are generally thought to be good indicators of habitat suitability, and thus of species’ performance, consequently SDMs can be validated by checking whether the areas projected to have the greatest habitat quality are occupied by individuals or populations with higher than average fitness. We hypothesized a positive and statistically significant relationship between observed in the field body size of the snail V. turgida and modelled habitat suitability, tested this relationship with linear mixed models, and found that indeed, larger individuals tend to occupy high-quality areas, as predicted by the SDMs. However, by testing several SDM algorithms, we found varied levels of performance in terms of expounding this relationship. Marginal R2, expressing the variance explained by the fixed terms in the regression models, was adopted as a measure of functional accuracy, and used to rank the SDMs accordingly. In this respect, the Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) algorithm (Carlson, 2020) gave the best result, despite the low AUC and TSS. By restricting our analysis to the BART algorithm only, a variety of sets of environmental variables commonly or less used in the construction of SDMs were explored and tested according to their functional accuracy. In this respect, the SDM produced using the ENVIREM data set (Title, Bemmels, 2018) gave the best result.

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