AI-Based Decision System to Evaluate Scenarios of Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Evidence From Barcelona and Manhattan
Abstract In 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak has had severe economic and social consequences all over the planet. Traditional national health systems have been unable to predict and to provide a decision support system able to coordinate an effective response to the outbreak and to stop the rapid spread of this disease. In this current manuscript, we have decided to focus our analysis on Small and Medium Businesses (SMBs). While some SMBs have survived, many others, particularly in urban areas, have had to shut down as a direct decision of government restrictions. Our study presents a decision support system based on Artificial Intelligence which helps governments to prioritize the closures of SMBs located in a city. Indeed, the decision to shut down may vary according to the relative danger that the business premises represent as a social gathering point and its benefits for the local economy. In this vein, we analyse 3 different scenarios which assume different financial and social costs. The visualization of the results on a city map provides additional value for the decision-making process. The Urban Decision Support System is tested by two case studies: Barcelona and New York City. This research has implications for practitioners to support their decision to close-down the economies in the event of another large-scale outbreak. It has also research implications as new evidence that data analytics could be an additional and valuable source of information for decision support processes.