scholarly journals Simple method for estimating daily and  total COVID-19 deaths using a Gumbel model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Furutani ◽  
Tomoyuki Hiroyasu ◽  
Yoshiyasu Okuhara
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Distribution Function ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
York City ◽  
Gumbel Distribution ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Gumbel Model

Abstract The purpose of the present paper is to introduce a method for forecasting daily and total numbers of COVID-19-associated deaths. We apply the Gumbel distribution function for the analysis of time series data of the first wave. The Gumbel distribution function F(t) has a notable property of F(t) = 1/2.718 at the node (peak) point of the distribution. Therefore, we can forecast the number of total deaths N. In the present study, the Gumbel model gives the estimate N ≈ 2.718N1, where N1 is the partial sum of the daily numbers of deaths until the day of the peak. The proposed model can also forecast the daily numbers after the peak. We investigated the data of New York City, Belgium, Switzerland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. The Gumbel model gives reasonable results for New York City, Belgium, and Switzerland. On the other hand, the proposed method underestimates N for Sweden and the United Kingdom. The proposed approach is very simple, and carrying out the analysis is easy. This method uses spreadsheet software for most of the calculations, and no special program is needed.

POINT-COUNTERPOINT

1993 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 101-102
Author(s):  
Richard H. Schwartz ◽  
John P. Morgan
Keyword(s):  
College Students ◽  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
Young Adults ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
York City ◽  
Drugs Of Abuse ◽  
Designer Drug ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Teenagers And Young Adults

In the September 1992 issue of Pediatrics in Review in which the article on drugs of abuse (amphetamine and methamphetamine) appeared, Dr John Morgan failed to mention MDMA (3,4 methylenedioxymetham-phetamine), a substituted methamphetamine designer drug with hallucinogenic properties, known by its popular name "ecstasy" on XTC. MDMA is used with some frequency by college students (2.3% of college students took the drug in 1990). It is a prevalent drug of abuse in the United Kingdom, where it is ingested by teenagers and young adults who attend popular dance halls known as "The Rave." It is also a drug of growing importance among youth in New York City where The Rave has introduced.

To the Editor

2002 ◽  
Vol 32 (7) ◽  
pp. 1321-1326 ◽  
Author(s):  
RICHARD ABRAMS
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
York City ◽  
Questionnaire Survey ◽  
Self Evaluation ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Professional Self

The report of Prudic and colleagues (2001, 31, pp. 929–934) on the results of a mailed questionnaire survey of ECT practices at a sample of New York City Metropolitan area hospitals is in the best tradition of professional self-evaluation, as exemplified by the influential survey conducted by Pippard & Ellam (1981) in the United Kingdom.

scholarly journals Migration of households from New York City and the Second Peak in Covid-19 cases in New Jersey, Connecticut and New York Counties.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam T Schulman ◽  
Gyan Bhanot
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
New Jersey ◽  
York City ◽  
Infectious Agent ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Address Data ◽  
Second Peak

The five boroughs of New York City (NYC) were early epicenters of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States, with over 380,000 cases by May 31. High caseloads were also seen in nearby counties in New Jersey (NJ), Connecticut (CT) and New York (NY). The pandemic started in the area in March with an exponential rise in the number of daily cases, peaked in early April, briefly declined, and then, showed clear signs of a second peak in several counties. We will show that despite control measures such as lockdown and restriction of movement during the exponential rise in daily cases, there was a significant net migration of households from NYC boroughs to the neighboring counties in NJ, CT and NY State. We propose that the second peak in daily cases in these counties around NYC was due, in part, to the movement of people from NYC boroughs to these counties. We estimate the movement of people using "Change of Address" (CoA) data from the US Postal Service, provided under the "Freedom of Information Act" of 1967. To identify the timing of the second peak and the number of cases in it, we use a previously proposed SIR model, which accurately describes the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic in European countries. Subtracting the model fits from the data identified, we establish the timing and the number of cases, NCS, in the second peak. We then related the number of cases in the second peak to the county population density, P, and the excess Change of Address, ECoA, into each county using the simple model N_CS~P^α E_CoA^β which fits the data very well with α = 0.68, β = 0.31 (R^2 = 0.74, p = 1.3e-8). We also find that the time between the first and second peaks was proportional to the distance of the county seat from NY Penn Station, suggesting that this migration of households and disease was a directed flow and not a diffusion process. Our analysis provides a simple method to use change of address data to track the spread of an infectious agent, such as SARS-Cov-2, due to migrations away from epicenters during the initial stages of a pandemic.

Abstract P430: Spatial Proximity and Membership to Gyms or Related Facilities Jointly Predict Objectively Measured Physical Activity among Adults in New York City

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 129 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanya K Kaufman ◽  
Daniel Sheehan ◽  
Kathryn M Neckerman ◽  
Andrew Rundle ◽  
Gina S Lovasi
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Vigorous Physical Activity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Home Address ◽  
Physical Activity Facilities

Background: Over half of the adult population in the United States fails to meet public health recommendations for physical activity. Neighborhood physical activity facilities may help encourage moderate and vigorous physical activity. We hypothesize that commercial physical activity facilities near the home would predict both membership in a gym or other recreation facility in the past 12 months and current physical activity. We further hypothesize the presence of effect modification, such that physical activity facilities would have a stronger association with activity among individuals with a facility membership. Methods: Data were from the New York City Physical Activity and Transit Monitoring Study, a sample of 679 New York City adults aged 18 years and older with physical activity measured by accelerometer. Participants were excluded for incomplete data, extreme values for height, weight or BMI, or if their home address could not be geocoded. The final analytic sample was 625. Counts of commercial physical activity facilities within 1 km of each participant’s home address were generated from the National Establishment Time-Series data for year 2010. Linear and logistic regression models incorporated robust standard errors, sample weights, and adjustment for individual- and neighborhood-level characteristics. Results: Individuals living near more commercial physical activity facilities were more likely to report membership in a gym or other facility (adjusted odds ratio for top versus bottom quartile of facility count: 3.80; 95% CI: 1.60-9.02). The count of facilities was also associated with more physical activity as measured by accelerometer, particularly for those individuals reporting membership in a gym or other recreation facility (see figure). Conclusion: The evaluation of opportunities for physical activity should include accessibility of commercial physical activity facilities, including financial or social barriers to membership.

An Important Armenian MS. with Greek Miniatures

1942 ◽  
Vol 74 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 155-162
Author(s):  
H. Kurdian
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Christian Iconography

In 1941 while in New York City I was fortunate enough to purchase an Armenian MS. which I believe will be of interest to students of Eastern Christian iconography.

Hospitals: N.Y. Appellate Court Denies Move to Privatize Public Hospital

1999 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 202-203
Author(s):  
Robert Chatham
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
Municipal Hospital ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Benefit ◽  
For Profit ◽  
Benefit Corporation ◽  
The City

The Court of Appeals of New York held, in Council of the City of New York u. Giuliani, slip op. 02634, 1999 WL 179257 (N.Y. Mar. 30, 1999), that New York City may not privatize a public city hospital without state statutory authorization. The court found invalid a sublease of a municipal hospital operated by a public benefit corporation to a private, for-profit entity. The court reasoned that the controlling statute prescribed the operation of a municipal hospital as a government function that must be fulfilled by the public benefit corporation as long as it exists, and nothing short of legislative action could put an end to the corporation's existence.In 1969, the New York State legislature enacted the Health and Hospitals Corporation Act (HHCA), establishing the New York City Health and Hospitals Corporation (HHC) as an attempt to improve the New York City public health system. Thirty years later, on a renewed perception that the public health system was once again lacking, the city administration approved a sublease of Coney Island Hospital from HHC to PHS New York, Inc. (PHS), a private, for-profit entity.

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