Failure to replicate the JTC-bias in patients with psychotic disorders: A secondary analysis of a baseline assessment of a randomized controlled trial
Abstract Background: The jumping to conclusions bias (JTC) is considered to be an important causal factor in theoretical models on the formation and maintenance of delusions. However, recent meta-analytic findings show a rather equivocal pattern of results regarding associations between JTC and delusions. Thus, the aim of the present preregistered study is to investigate in a large sample whether the JTC-bias is more pronounced in patients with psychotic disorders in comparison to controls and whether the JTC bias is associated with more severe delusional conviction, persecutory delusions and positive symptoms in general. All hypotheses were pre-specified in the trial proposal.Methods: Patients with psychotic disorders (n = 300) enrolled in a therapy trial and healthy controls (n = 51) conducted a variant of the beads task (fish task) as a measure for the JTC-bias at start of the trial. Further, clinical interviews were used to assess patients’ delusional severity and delusional conviction.Results: There were no statistically significant differences between patients with psychotic disorders (with 53% displaying the JTC-bias) and controls (41%). Furthermore, there were no statistically significant correlations between JTC measures and persecutory delusions, delusional conviction and positive symptoms.Conclusions: We found no evidence for hasty decisions in patients with psychotic disorders, possibly because the fish task induces a more deliberative reasoning style as compared to the traditional beads task. The lack of associations between JTC measures and delusion severity is in line with meta-analytic findings using a wide range of JTC task variants. JTC is not as ubiquitous as previously thought and may only manifest itself in certain situational contexts. Trial Registration: ISRCTN29242879 (isrctn.com), date of registration: April 12th 2006, http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN12345678