scholarly journals Estimating the serial interval of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A statistical analysis using the public data in Hong Kong from January 16 to February 15, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shi Zhao ◽  
Daozhou Gao ◽  
Zian Zhuang ◽  
Marc KC Chong ◽  
Yongli Cai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
First Case ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Censored Likelihood

Abstract Background : The emerging virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused a large outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China since December 2019. As of February 15, there were 56 COVID-19 cases confirmed in Hong Kong since the first case with symptom onset on January 23, 2020. Methods : Based on the publicly available surveillance data, we identified 21 transmission events, which occurred in Hong Kong, and had primary cases known, as of February 15, 2020. An interval censored likelihood framework is adopted to fit three different distributions, Gamma, Weibull and lognormal, that govern the SI of COVID-19. We selection the distribution according to the Akaike information criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc). Findings : We found the Lognormal distribution performed lightly better than the other two distributions in terms of the AICc. Assuming a Lognormal distributed model, we estimated the mean of SI at 3.9 days (95%CI: 2.7−7.3) and SD of SI at 3.1 days (95%CI: 1.7−10.1) by using the information of all 21 transmission events in Hong Kong. Conclusion : The SI of COVID-19 may be shorter than the preliminary estimates in previous works. Given the likelihood that SI could be shorter than the incubation period, pre-symptomatic transmission may occur, and extra efforts on timely contact tracing and quarantine are crucially needed in combating the COVID-19 outbreak.

scholarly journals Estimating the serial interval of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A statistical analysis using the public data in Hong Kong from January 16 to February 15, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shi Zhao ◽  
Daozhou Gao ◽  
Zian Zhuang ◽  
Marc KC Chong ◽  
Yongli Cai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
First Case ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Censored Likelihood

Abstract Background: The emerging virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused a large outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China since December 2019. As of February 15, there were 56 COVID-19 cases confirmed in Hong Kong since the first case with symptom onset on January 23, 2020.Methods: Based on the publicly available surveillance data, we identified 21 transmission events, which occurred in Hong Kong, and had primary cases known, as of February 15, 2020. An interval censored likelihood framework is adopted to fit three different distributions, Gamma, Weibull and lognormal, that govern the SI of COVID-19. We select the distribution according to the Akaike information criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc).Findings: We found the Gamma distribution performed lightly better than the other two distributions. Assuming a Gamma distributed model, we estimated the mean of SI at 4.4 days (95%CI: 2.9−6.7) and SD of SI at 3.0 days (95%CI: 1.8−5.8) by using the information of all 21 transmission events in Hong Kong.Conclusion: The SI of COVID-19 may be shorter than the preliminary estimates in previous works. Given the likelihood that SI could be shorter than the incubation period, pre-symptomatic transmission may occur, and extra efforts on timely contact tracing and quarantine are crucially needed in combating the COVID-19 outbreak.

scholarly journals Estimating the serial interval of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A statistical analysis using the public data in Hong Kong from January 16 to February 15, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shi Zhao ◽  
Daozhou Gao ◽  
Zian Zhuang ◽  
Marc KC Chong ◽  
Yongli Cai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Lognormal Distribution ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
First Case ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Censored Likelihood

Abstract Background: The emerging virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused a large outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China since December 2019. As of February 15, there were 56 COVID-19 cases confirmed in Hong Kong since the first case with symptom onset on January 23, 2020. Methods: Based on the publicly available surveillance data, we identified 21 transmission events, which occurred in Hong Kong, and had primary cases known, as of February 15, 2020. An interval censored likelihood framework is adopted to fit three different distributions, Gamma, Weibull and lognormal, that govern the SI of COVID-19. We selection the distribution according to the Akaike information criterion corrected for small sample size (AICc). Findings: We found the Lognormal distribution performed lightly better than the other two distributions in terms of the AICc. Assuming a Lognormal distribution model, we estimated the mean of SI at 4.9 days (95%CI: 3.6−6.2) and SD of SI at 4.4 days (95%CI: 2.9−8.3) by using the information of all 21 transmission events in Hong Kong. Conclusion: The SI of COVID-19 may be shorter than the preliminary estimates in previous works. Given the likelihood that SI could be shorter than the incubation period, pre-symptomatic transmission may occur, and extra efforts on timely contact tracing and quarantine are crucially needed in combating the COVID-19 outbreak.

scholarly journals Estimating the serial interval of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): A statistical analysis using the public data in Hong Kong from January 16 to February 15, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shi Zhao ◽  
Daozhou Gao ◽  
Zian Zhuang ◽  
Marc KC Chong ◽  
Yongli Cai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Interval Censored ◽  
Large Outbreak ◽  
Emerging Virus ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Censored Likelihood

AbstractBackgroundsThe emerging virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has caused a large outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China since December 2019. Based on the publicly available surveillance data, we identified 21 transmission chains in Hong Kong and estimated the serial interval (SI) of COVID-19.MethodsIndex cases were identified and reported after symptoms onset, and contact tracing was conducted to collect the data of the associated secondary cases. An interval censored likelihood framework is adopted to fit a Gamma distribution function to govern the SI of COVID-19.FindingsAssuming a Gamma distributed model, we estimated the mean of SI at 4.4 days (95%CI: 2.9−6.7) and SD of SI at 3.0 days (95%CI: 1.8−5.8) by using the information of all 21 transmission chains in Hong Kong.ConclusionThe SI of COVID-19 may be shorter than the preliminary estimates in previous works. Given the likelihood that SI could be shorter than the incubation period, pre-symptomatic transmission may occur, and extra efforts on timely contact tracing and quarantine are recommended in combating the COVID-19 outbreak.

Despair and hope: cinematic identity in Hong Kong of the 2000s

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Tse-Hei Lee
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Communal Relationship ◽  
Authoritarian State ◽  
Political Cinema ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Depth Analysis ◽  
Film Market

Purpose The goal of this article is to examine the current trends of political cinema in postcolonial Hong Kong. Many leaders of the Hong Kong mainstream cinema have accepted the Chinese authoritarian rule as a precondition for expanding into the ever-expanding Mainland film market, but a handful of conscientious filmmakers choose to make political cinema under the shadow of a wealthy and descendant industry, expressing their desire for democracy and justice and critiquing the unequal power relations between Hong Kong and China. Design/methodology/approach This paper consults relevant documentary materials and cinematic texts to contextualize the latest development of political cinema in Hong Kong. It presents an in-depth analysis of the works of two local independent filmmakers Herman Yau and Vincent Chui. Findings This study reveals a glimpse of hope in the current films of Herman Yau and Vincent Chui, which suggests that a reconfiguration of local identity and communal relationship may turn around the collective despair caused by the oppressive measures of the Chinese authoritarian state and the end of the Umbrella Movement in late 2014. Research limitations/implications Despite the small sample size, this paper highlights the rise of cinematic localism through a closer look at the works of Hong Kong independent filmmakers. Practical implications This study reveals an ambivalent mentality in the Hong Kong film industry where critical filmmakers strive to assert their creativity and agency against the externally imposed Chinese hegemonic power. Originality/value This investigation is an original scholarly study of film and politics in postcolonial Hong Kong.

scholarly journals Interpretation of female images in advertising among Chinese adolescents

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-234
Author(s):  
Yu Leung Ng ◽  
Kara Chan
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Work And Family ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Focus Group Study ◽  
Female Images ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Female Image ◽  
Hong Kong Adolescents ◽  
The One

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine how Chinese adolescent girls and boys interpret female images in gendered advertisements based on Tobin et al.’s (2010) gender self-socialization model (GSSM). Design/methodology/approach – In total, 48 Hong Kong adolescents studying in high schools or university year one participated in a focus group study. Four advertisements with different types of female images were presented. Interviewees were asked to discuss the appearance, the personality and the work and family life of the female characters in the advertisements. Interviewers then asked them to select the one most closely representing their ideal female image. Findings – Most of the interviewees chose an urban sophisticate as the character closest to their ideal female image. Female interviewees identified with the urban sophisticate and aspired to the cultured nurturer image. However, they rejected the strong woman and the “flower vase” female images. Research limitations/implications – The generalizability of the findings was limited because of the small sample size and non-probability sampling. Practical implications – When targeting adolescents, advertisers should consider using female images displaying a personality that is neither too strong nor too weak. Originality/value – This is the first study to investigate how Hong Kong adolescents interpret female images from gendered advertisements. This study also clarifies the gender concepts to explain how adolescents perceive gendered advertisements.

scholarly journals Serological Profile of Children and Young Adults with at Least One SARS-CoV-2 Positive Cohabitant: An Observational Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1488
Author(s):  
Marco Farronato ◽  
Carolina Dolci ◽  
Elisa Boccalari ◽  
Sara Izadi ◽  
Luis Hernan Salvatierra Rios ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Immunoglobulin M ◽  
Nasopharyngeal Swab ◽  
The Novel ◽  
New Disease ◽  
Serological Profile ◽  
Children And Young Adults ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

At the end of 2019, a new disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 appeared in Wuhan Province in China. Children seemed to be infected less frequently than adults, and family clusters seemed to play an important role in the spread of the pandemic. The aim of this study is to evaluate the serological profile of children and young adults between 4 and 16 years of age in order to assess the transmission patterns of COVID-19 between cohabitants. The subjects lived with at least one cohabitant who tested positive for the disease using a nasopharyngeal swab. To avoid contact with the disease, families were interviewed by telephone. Forty-nine children and adolescents with a mean age of 11 years were then subjected to a rapid lateral flow chromatographic test. Of them, seven (14.3%) were immunoglobulin G (IgG)-positive, and four (8.2%) were immunoglobulin M (IgM)-positive. In total, 16.3% of the tested sample had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2: this may confirm the lower vulnerability of children to COVID-19, despite the small sample size. The time from the negativization of the cohabitant until the test day may have influenced the results, especially when this timeframe is wide.

scholarly journals Contact Tracing During The COVID-19 Pandemic In District Health Directorate Example in Istanbul, Turkey

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
İkbal Hümay ARMAN ◽  
Yusuf Arman ◽  
Meryem Merve ÖREN
Keyword(s):  
Swot Analysis ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Field Investigation ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
District Health ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
First Case ◽  
Health Directorate ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Background: After March 2020, with the first case of novel coronavirus, Turkish health care system switched to state of emergency to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to control the pandemic, a scientific committee was established, guidelines were prepared, and filiation/contact tracing studies were started. Field investigation and isolation teams were established, and District Health Directorates (DHD) became frontline primary care organizations to manage contact tracing in Turkey. Case presentation: In this report, pandemic management and contact tracing were evaluated in example of Kartal DHD from Istanbul, Turkey. The report contains the details about the planning process, Kartal DHD Pandemic Management priorities, aim and planning of this policy, coordination and cooperation with other institutes to overcome this extraordinary state. Also, evaluation of the contact tracing and telemedicine usage in the pandemic management is examined as well with future implications. Conclusions: From the SWOT analysis to planning process, this report attempts to describe how this state of emergency was managed and how effective the contact tracing management process was. With its detailed key points of the pandemic management and future perspectives, it has been written in terms of preparation for the future pandemics.

scholarly journals Long-term patterns of mass stranding of the colonial cnidarian Velella velella: influence of environmental forcing

2021 ◽  
Vol 662 ◽  
pp. 69-83
Author(s):  
T Jones ◽  
JK Parrish ◽  
HK Burgess
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Citizen Science ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Current System ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Reporting Rate ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Northern California ◽  
California Current System ◽  
Mass Stranding

Velella velella is a pleustonic cnidarian noted worldwide for mass stranding of the colonial phase. Utilizing a 20 yr dataset (2000-2019; 23265 surveys) collected by the COASST citizen science program, we examined the spatio-temporal occurrence of mass strandings of V. velella along the Pacific Northwest coast from Washington to northern California, USA. V. velella mass strandings were documented in 14 years, with expansive events in 2003-2006 and 2014-2019. Events predominantly occurred in spring and were synchronous (April) among years, concurrent with shifts to prevailing onshore winds. Autumn mass stranding events occurred infrequently, with no consistent phenology (2005: November; 2014: August). In stranding years, reports of V. velella were mostly synchronous throughout the surveyed area, and events consistently spanned >400 km of coastline, with highest reporting rates in the vicinity of the Columbia River plume, collectively suggesting extensive V. velella blooms throughout the northern California Current system in some years. Annual metrics of spring V. velella reporting rate (proportion of beaches; January-June) were modeled as a function of indices representing sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa), easterly (onshore) wind speed, and regional upwelling. The best models (based on Akaike’s information criterion corrected for small sample size) indicated that SSTa averaged over the preceding winter (December-February) was positively correlated with spring reporting rate, suggesting that mass strandings of V. velella may be more prevalent in warmer years. As planetary warming continues, and V. velella strandings are easily recorded by citizen science programs globally, we suggest that stranding prevalence may be one relatively easy measure providing evidence for epipelagic ecosystem response.

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