scholarly journals The Prediction for Development of COVID-19 in Global Major Epidemic Areas Through Empirical Trends in China by Utilizing State Transition Matrix Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhong Zheng ◽  
Ke Wu ◽  
Zhixian Yao ◽  
Xinyi Zheng ◽  
Junhua Zheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Matrix Model ◽  
Transition Matrix ◽  
State Transition ◽  
State Transition Matrix ◽  
World Health ◽  
Daily Increment ◽  
The World ◽  
Increment Rate ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract Background: Since pneumonia caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, tremendous infected cases has risen all over the world attributed to its high transmissibility. We aimed to mathematically forecast the inflection point (IFP) of new cases in South Korea, Italy, and Iran, utilizing the transcendental model from China. Methods: Data from reports released by the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (Dec 31, 2019 to Mar 5, 2020) and the World Health Organization (Jan 20, 2020 to Mar 5, 2020) were extracted as the training set and the data from Mar 6 to 9 as the validation set. New close contacts, newly confirmed cases, cumulative confirmed cases, non-severe cases, severe cases, critical cases, cured cases, and death were collected and analyzed. We analyzed the data above through the State Transition Matrix model. Results: The optimistic scenario (non-Hubei model, daily increment rate of -3.87%), the cautiously optimistic scenario (Hubei model, daily increment rate of -2.20%), and the relatively pessimistic scenario (adjustment, daily increment rate of -1.50%) were inferred and modeling from data in China. The IFP of time in South Korea would be Mar 6 to 12, Italy Mar 10 to 24, and Iran Mar 10 to 24. The numbers of cumulative confirmed patients will reach approximately 20k in South Korea, 209k in Italy, and 226k in Iran under fitting scenarios, respectively. However, with the adoption of different diagnosis criteria, the variation of new cases could impose various influences in the predictive model. If that happens, the IFP of increment will be earlier than predicted above. Conclusion: The end of the pandemic is still inapproachable, and the number of confirmed cases is still escalating. With the augment of data, the world epidemic trend could be further predicted, and it is imperative to consummate the assignment of global medical resources to curb the development of COVID-19.

scholarly journals The prediction for development of COVID-19 in global major epidemic areas through empirical trends in China by utilizing state transition matrix model

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhong Zheng ◽  
Ke Wu ◽  
Zhixian Yao ◽  
Xinyi Zheng ◽  
Junhua Zheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Matrix Model ◽  
Transition Matrix ◽  
State Transition ◽  
State Transition Matrix ◽  
World Health ◽  
Daily Increment ◽  
The World ◽  
Increment Rate ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract Background Since pneumonia caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, tremendous infected cases has risen all over the world attributed to its high transmissibility. We aimed to mathematically forecast the inflection point (IFP) of new cases in South Korea, Italy, and Iran, utilizing the transcendental model from China. Methods Data from reports released by the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (Dec 31, 2019 to Mar 5, 2020) and the World Health Organization (Jan 20, 2020 to Mar 5, 2020) were extracted as the training set and the data from Mar 6 to 9 as the validation set. New close contacts, newly confirmed cases, cumulative confirmed cases, non-severe cases, severe cases, critical cases, cured cases, and death were collected and analyzed. We analyzed the data above through the State Transition Matrix model. Results The optimistic scenario (non-Hubei model, daily increment rate of − 3.87%), the cautiously optimistic scenario (Hubei model, daily increment rate of − 2.20%), and the relatively pessimistic scenario (adjustment, daily increment rate of − 1.50%) were inferred and modeling from data in China. The IFP of time in South Korea would be Mar 6 to 12, Italy Mar 10 to 24, and Iran Mar 10 to 24. The numbers of cumulative confirmed patients will reach approximately 20 k in South Korea, 209 k in Italy, and 226 k in Iran under fitting scenarios, respectively. However, with the adoption of different diagnosis criteria, the variation of new cases could impose various influences in the predictive model. If that happens, the IFP of increment will be earlier than predicted above. Conclusion The end of the pandemic is still inapproachable, and the number of confirmed cases is still escalating. With the augment of data, the world epidemic trend could be further predicted, and it is imperative to consummate the assignment of global medical resources to curb the development of COVID-19.

scholarly journals The Prediction for Development of COVID-19 in Global Major Epidemic Areas Through Empirical Trends in China by Utilizing State Transition Matrix Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhong Zheng ◽  
Ke Wu ◽  
Zhixian Yao ◽  
Xinyi Zheng ◽  
Junhua Zheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Matrix Model ◽  
Transition Matrix ◽  
State Transition ◽  
State Transition Matrix ◽  
World Health ◽  
Daily Increment ◽  
The World ◽  
Increment Rate ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract Background: Since pneumonia caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, tremendous infected cases has risen all over the world attributed to high transmissibility. We managed to mathematically forecast the inflection point (IFP) of new cases in South Korea, Italy, and Iran, utilizing the transcendental model from China. Methods: Data from reports released by the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (Dec 31, 2019 to Mar 5, 2020) and the World Health Organization (Jan 20, 2020 to Mar 5, 2020) were extracted as the training set and the data from Mar 6 to 9 as validation set. New close contacts, newly confirmed cases, cumulative confirmed cases, non-severe cases, severe cases, critical cases, cured cases, and death were collected and analyzed. All data were analyzed through the State Transition Matrix model. Results: the optimistic scenario (non-Hubei model, daily increment rate of -3.87%), the cautiously optimistic scenario (Hubei model, daily increment rate of -2.20%), and the relatively pessimistic scenario (adjustment, daily increment rate of -1.50%) were inferred and modeling from data in China. The IFP of time in South Korea would be Mar 6 to 12, Italy Mar 10 to 24, and Iran Mar 10 to 24. The numbers of cumulative confirmed patients will reach approximately 20k in South Korea, 209k in Italy, and 226k in Iran under fitting scenarios, respectively. However, with the adoption of different diagnosis criteria, the variation of new cases could impose various influences in the predictive model. If that happens, the IFP of increment will be earlier than predicted above. Conclusion: The end of the pandemic is still inapproachable, and the number of confirmed cases is still escalating. With the augment of data, the world epidemic trend could be further predicted, and it is imperative to consummate the assignment of global medical resources to curb the development of COVID-19.

scholarly journals The Prediction for Development of COVID-19 in Global Major Epidemic Areas Through Empirical Trends in China by Utilizing State Transition Matrix Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhong Zheng ◽  
Ke Wu ◽  
Zhixian Yao ◽  
Junhua Zheng ◽  
Jian Chen
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Matrix Model ◽  
Transition Matrix ◽  
State Transition ◽  
State Transition Matrix ◽  
World Health ◽  
Daily Increment ◽  
The World ◽  
Increment Rate ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract Background: Since pneumonia caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, tremendous infected cases has risen all over the world attributed to high transmissibility. We managed to mathematically forecast the inflection point (IFP) of new cases in South Korea, Italy, and Iran, utilizing the transcendental model from China. Methods: Data from reports released by the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (Dec 31, 2019 to Mar 5, 2020) and the World Health Organization (Jan 20, 2020 to Mar 5, 2020) were extracted as the training set and the data from Mar 6 to Mar 9 as validation set. New close contacts, newly confirmed cases, cumulative confirmed cases, non-severe cases, severe cases, critical cases, cured cases, and death were collected and analyzed. All data were analyzed through the State Transition Matrix model. Results: the optimistic scenario (non-Hubei model, daily increment rate of -3.87%), the cautiously optimistic scenario (Hubei model, daily increment rate of -2.20%), and the relatively pessimistic scenario (adjustment, daily increment rate of -1.50%) were inferred and modeling from data in China. The IFP of time in South Korea would be Mar 6-Mar 12, Italy Mar 10-Mar 24, and Iran is Mar 10-Mar 24. The numbers of cumulative confirmed patients will reach approximately 20k in South Korea, 209k in Italy, and 226k in Iran under fitting scenarios, respectively. There should be room for improvement if these metrics continue to improve. In that case, the IFP will arrive earlier than our estimation. However, with the adoption of different diagnosis criteria, the variation of new cases could impose various influences in the predictive model. If that happens, the IFP of increment will be higher than predicted above. Conclusion: The end of the pandemic is still inapproachable, and the number of confirmed cases is still escalating. With the augment of data, the world epidemic trend could be further predicted, and it is imperative to consummate the assignment of global medical resources to curb the development of COVID-19.

scholarly journals The Prediction for Development of COVID-19 in Global Major Epidemic Areas Through Empirical Trends in China by Utilizing State Transition Matrix Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhong Zheng ◽  
Ke Wu ◽  
Zhixian Yao ◽  
Junhua Zheng ◽  
Jian Chen
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Matrix Model ◽  
Transition Matrix ◽  
State Transition ◽  
State Transition Matrix ◽  
Medical Resources ◽  
Daily Increment ◽  
The World ◽  
Pessimistic Scenario ◽  
Increment Rate

AbstractBackgroundSince pneumonia caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, tremendous infected cases has risen all over the world attributed to high transmissibility. We managed to mathematically forecast the inflection point (IFP) of new cases in South Korea, Italy, and Iran, utilizing the transcendental model from Hubei and non-Hubei in China.MethodsWe extracted data from reports released by the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (Dec 31, 2019 to Mar 5, 2020) and the World Health Organization (Jan 20, 2020 to Mar 5, 2020) as the training set to deduce the arrival of the IFP of new cases in Hubei and non-Hubei on subsequent days and the data from Mar 6 to Mar 9 as validation set. New close contacts, newly confirmed cases, cumulative confirmed cases, non-severe cases, severe cases, critical cases, cured cases, and death data were collected and analyzed. Using this state transition matrix model, the horizon of the IFP of time (the rate of new increment reaches zero) could be predicted in South Korean, Italy, and Iran. Also, through this model, the global trend of the epidemic will be decoded to allocate international medical resources better and instruct the strategy for quarantine.Resultsthe optimistic scenario (non-Hubei model, daily increment rate of −3.87%), the relative pessimistic scenario (Hubei model, daily increment rate of −2.20%), and the relatively pessimistic scenario (adjustment, daily increment rate of −1.50%) were inferred and modeling from data in China. Matching and fitting with these scenarios, the IFP of time in South Korea would be Mar 6-Mar 12, Italy Mar 10-Mar 24, and Iran is Mar 10-Mar 24. The numbers of cumulative confirmed patients will reach approximately 20k in South Korea, 209k in Italy, and 226k in Iran under fitting scenarios, respectively. There should be room for improvement if these metrics continue to improve. In that case, the IFP will arrive earlier than our estimation. However, with the adoption of different diagnosis criteria, the variation of new cases could impose various influences in the predictive model. If that happens, the IFP of increment will be higher than predicted above.ConclusionWe can affirm that the end of the burst of the epidemic is still inapproachable, and the number of confirmed cases is still escalating. With the augment of data, the world epidemic trend could be further predicted, and it is imperative to consummate the assignment of global medical resources to manipulate the development of COVID-19.

scholarly journals Opinion on the practice of cremation funeral for patients who died of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 243-246
Author(s):  
Yun Jung Heo
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
South Korea ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
National Guidelines ◽  
Loved One ◽  
The World ◽  
Plastic Bag ◽  
The Government ◽  
Health Organization

During the early phase of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, South Korea was among the countries affected by the novel infectious disease soon after China. A year later, South Korea is considered one of the countries to have successfully responded to COVID-19. Even though South Korea has struggled to learn how to live wisely with COVID-19, much less effort has been put into learning how to die gracefully during the COVID-19 pandemic. From the beginning of the pandemic, the Korean government has recommended (or mandated) cremation for those who die from COVID-19 to prevent further spread of the disease. However, the World Health Organization has announced that corpses are generally not contagious and cremation should be a matter of culture choice and available resources. In South Korea, the government pays compensation to the families of the deceased because they follow the national guidelines for the cremation and disinfection of bodies. However, it is now time to discuss how to support the families of the deceased, helping them to safely grieve and honor their loved one in their own ways, rather than forcing them to wrap the deceased with a plastic bag and proceed with a hasty cremation.

COVID-19

2022 ◽  
pp. 21-37
Author(s):  
Kholoud Kahime ◽  
Bilal El-Mansoury ◽  
Abdelmohcine Aimrane ◽  
Blaid Bougadir ◽  
Moulay Abdelmonaim El Hidan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
South Korea ◽  
World Health Organization ◽  
World Health ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Great Danger

In December 2019, the world saw the appearance of a severe acute respiratory syndrome, SARS-CoV-2, in Wuhan. The virus originated in bats and was transmitted to humans. The number of cases started increasing exponentially. According to the World Health Organization, the massive migration of Chinese during the Chinese New Year fuelled the epidemic. Cases in other provinces of China, other countries (Thailand, Japan, and South Korea in quick succession) were reported in people who were returning from Wuhan. After two months, the World Health Organization reclassified this virus as a pandemic. This virus caused a great danger in the world; most countries declared a state of emergency and implemented quarantine in order to stop the spreading of the virus. We don't yet have an effective medicine against this virus. More than 155 million people are now infected with COVID-19 and more than three million people have died. This chapter will discuss the history and spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Suicide attempts among the elderly in East Asia

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 707-708 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guk-Hee Suh ◽  
Lina Gega
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Suicide Attempts ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
World Health ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
The World ◽  
The One ◽  
Health Organization

Among the one million suicide deaths worldwide each year, as many as 60% occur in Asia. The World Health Organization (WHO) found higher suicide rates among the elderly in rapidly industrialized Asian countries such as China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Singapore, compared to the corresponding rates of recently industrializing Asian countries like Vietnam and Sri Lanka (WHO, 2014). As a case in point, suicide rates in South Korea have been the highest in the world since 2003 and are rising especially among older people (Hong and Knapp, 2014). Suicide attempts and older age are strong predictors of completed suicide (Szanto et al., 2002; Simon et al., 2013) and, as such, are important in guiding our efforts for suicide prevention; however, most epidemiological studies focus on completed suicides across all ages rather than understanding the reasons behind suicide attempts in older populations.

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