scholarly journals Optimization of random forest model for assessing and predicting geological hazards susceptibility in Lingyun County

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunfang Kong ◽  
Junzuo Wang ◽  
Xiaogang Ma ◽  
Yiping Tian ◽  
Zhiting Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Field Investigation ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Geological Hazards ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Prediction And Prevention

Abstract The frequent occurrence of geological hazards will not only cause peoples' property loss and deterioration of living environments, but will also endanger peoples' lives. Therefore, rapid and accurate evaluation of geological hazards susceptibility can provide an important scientific basis for emergency rescue and disaster reduction and prevention. In this paper, ten effective variables including slope, aspect, curvature, normalized differential vegetation index, annual precipitation, strata lithology, tectonic complexity, residential density, road network density, and land use/land cover were selected as evaluation indexes. Meanwhile, random forest (RF) model is improved by the optimization of unbalanced geological hazards dataset, differentiation of continuous geological hazards evaluation factors, sample similarity calculation, and iterative method for finding optimal random characteristics by calculating out-of-bagger errors. The geological hazards susceptibility evaluation model based on optimized RF (OPRF) was established and used to assess the susceptibility level of geological hazards for Lingyun County. Then, receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and field investigation were performed to verify the efficiency for five models. Analysis and comparison of the results denoted that the model based on OPRF has the highest prediction accuracy of 93.4%, which is far better than the other four models. Furthermore, the evaluation results can provide reference for geological hazards prediction and prevention, and can also provide decision support for land use development and rational utilization of resources and environment in Lingyun County. Based on these results, the OPRF model could be extended to other regions with similar geological environment backgrounds for geological hazards susceptibility assessment and prediction.

scholarly journals Optimization of Random Forest Model for Assessing and Predicting Geological Hazards Susceptibility in Lingyun County

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunfang Kong ◽  
Kai Xu ◽  
Junzuo Wang ◽  
Yiping Tian ◽  
Zhiting Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Field Investigation ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Geological Hazards ◽  
Susceptibility Assessment ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Similarity Calculation ◽  
Susceptibility Evaluation

The random forest (RF) model is improved by the optimization of unbalanced geological hazards dataset, differentiation of continuous geological hazards evaluation factors, sample similarity calculation, and iterative method for finding optimal random characteristics by calculating out-of-bagger errors. The geological hazards susceptibility evaluation model based on optimized RF (OPRF) was established and used to assess the susceptibility for Lingyun County. Then, ROC curve and field investigation were performed to verify the efficiency for different geological hazards susceptibility assessment models. The AUC values for five models were estimated as 0.766, 0.814, 0.842, 0.846 and 0.934, respectively, which indicated that the prediction accuracy of the OPRF model can be as high as 93.4%. This result demonstrated that the geological hazards susceptibility assessment model based on OPRF has the highest prediction accuracy. Furthermore, the OPRF model could be extended to other regions with similar geological environment backgrounds for geological hazards susceptibility assessment and prediction.

Production of Landslide Susceptibility Map using Bayesian Probability Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Halil Akıncı ◽  
Ayşe Yavuz Özalp ◽  
Mehmet Özalp ◽  
Sebahat Temuçin Kılıçer ◽  
Cem Kılıçoğlu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Bayesian Probability ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Map

Artvin is one of the provinces in Turkey where landslides occur most frequently. There have been numerous landslides characterized as natural disaster recorded across the province. The areas sensitive to landslides across the province should be identified in order to ensure people's safety, to take the necessary measures for reducing any devastating effects of landslides and to make the right decisions in respect to land use planning. In this study, the landslide susceptibility map of the Central district of Artvin was produced by using Bayesian probability model. Parameters including lithology, altitude, slope, aspect, plan and profile curvatures, soil depth, topographic wetness index, land cover, and proximity to the road and stream were used in landslide susceptibility analysis. The landslide susceptibility map produced in this study was validated using the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) based on area under curve (AUC) analysis. In addition, control landslide locations were used to validate the results of the landslide susceptibility map and the validation analysis resulted in 94.30% accuracy, a reliable outcome for this map that can be useful for general land use planning in Artvin.

scholarly journals Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Different GIS-Based Bivariate Models

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 1402 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nohani ◽  
Moharrami ◽  
Sharafi ◽  
Khosravi ◽  
Pradhan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Slope Angle ◽  
Aerial Photographs ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Susceptibility Map ◽  
Conditioning Factors ◽  
Bivariate Models

Landslides are the most frequent phenomenon in the northern part of Iran, which cause considerable financial and life damages every year. One of the most widely used approaches to reduce these damages is preparing a landslide susceptibility map (LSM) using suitable methods and selecting the proper conditioning factors. The current study is aimed at comparing four bivariate models, namely the frequency ratio (FR), Shannon entropy (SE), weights of evidence (WoE), and evidential belief function (EBF), for a LSM of Klijanrestagh Watershed, Iran. Firstly, 109 locations of landslides were obtained from field surveys and interpretation of aerial photographs. Then, the locations were categorized into two groups of 70% (74 locations) and 30% (35 locations), randomly, for modeling and validation processes, respectively. Then, 10 conditioning factors of slope aspect, curvature, elevation, distance from fault, lithology, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), distance from the river, distance from the road, the slope angle, and land use were determined to construct the spatial database. From the results of multicollinearity, it was concluded that no collinearity existed between the 10 considered conditioning factors in the occurrence of landslides. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC) were used for validation of the four achieved LSMs. The AUC results introduced the success rates of 0.8, 0.86, 0.84, and 0.85 for EBF, WoE, SE, and FR, respectively. Also, they indicated that the rates of prediction were 0.84, 0.83, 0.82, and 0.79 for WoE, FR, SE, and EBF, respectively. Therefore, the WoE model, having the highest AUC, was the most accurate method among the four implemented methods in identifying the regions at risk of future landslides in the study area. The outcomes of this research are useful and essential for the government, planners, decision makers, researchers, and general land-use planners in the study area.

scholarly journals Flood Susceptibility Prediction Using Hybrid-Based Approaches of Support Vector Regression Model and Meta-Heuristic Algorithms

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossein Hamedi Sorajar ◽  
Ali Asghar Alesheikh ◽  
Mahdi Panahi ◽  
Saro Lee
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Influential Factor ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Topographic Wetness Index ◽  
Support Vector Regression Model ◽  
Testing Dataset

Abstract Landslides are one of the most destructive natural phenomena in the world, which occur mostly in mountainous areas and cause damage to the economic sectors, agricultural lands, residential areas and infrastructures of any country, and also threaten the lives and property of human beings. Therefore, landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) can play a critical role in identifying prone areas and reducing the damage caused by landslides in each area. In the present study, deep learning algorithms including convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) were used to identify landslide prone areas in Ardabil province, Iran. Equql to 312 landslide locations were identified and randomly divided into train and test datasets at 70–30% ratios. Then, according to previous studies and environmental conditions in the study area, twelve factors affecting the occurrence of landslides were selected, namely altitude, slope angle, slope aspect, topographic wetness index (TWI), profile curvature, plan curvature, land-use, lithology, distance to faults, distance to rivers, distance to roads, and rainfall. The ratio of the importance of each influential factor in landslide occurrence was obtained through information gain ranking filter (IGRF) method and it was found that land-use and profile curvature had the highest and lowest impacts, respectively. Afterwards, LSMs were generated using CNN and LSTM algorithms. In the next step, the performance of the models was evaluated based on the area under curve (AUC) value of receiver operating characteristics curve and the root mean square error (RMSE) method. The AUC values for CNN and LSTM models were 0.821 and 0.832, respectively. Furthermore, the RMSE values in the CNN model for each of the training and testing dataset were 0.121 and 0.132, respectively. The RMSE values in the LSTM model for each of the training and testing dataset were 0.185 and 0.188, respectively. Therefore, it can be concluded that CNN performance is slightly better than LSTM; but in general, both models have close performance and the accuracy of both models is acceptable.

scholarly journals Modeling of Landslide susceptibility in a part of Abay Basin, northwestern Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1440-1467
Author(s):  
Azemeraw Wubalem
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Google Earth ◽  
Landslide Hazard ◽  
Information Value ◽  
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Landslide Occurrence

AbstractThe study area in northwestern Ethiopia is one of the most landslide-prone regions, which is characterized by frequent high landslide occurrences. To predict future landslide occurrence, preparing a landslide susceptibility mapping is imperative to manage the landslide hazard and reduce damages of properties and loss of lives. Geographic information system (GIS)-based frequency ratio (FR), information value (IV), certainty factor (CF), and logistic regression (LR) methods were applied. The landslide inventory map is prepared from historical records and Google Earth imagery interpretation. Thus, 717 landslides were mapped, of which 502 (70%) landslides were used to build landslide susceptibility models, and the remaining 215 (30%) landslides were used to model validation. Eleven factors such as lithology, land use/cover, distance to drainage, distance to lineament, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, rainfall, soil type, slope, aspect, and curvature were evaluated and their relationship with landslide occurrence was analyzed using the GIS tool. Then, landslide susceptibility maps of the study area are categorized into very low, low, moderate, high, and very high susceptibility classes. The four models were validated by the area under the curve (AUC) and landslide density. The results for the AUC are 93.9% for the CF model, which is better than 93.2% using IV, 92.7% using the FR model, and 87.9% using the LR model. Moreover, the statistical significance test between the models was performed using LR analysis by SPSS software. The result showed that the LR and CF models have higher statistical significance than the FR and IV methods. Although all statistical models indicated higher prediction accuracy, based on their statistical significance analysis result (Table 5), the LR model is relatively better followed by the CF model for regional land use planning, landslide hazard mitigation, and prevention purposes.

scholarly journals MODELING URBAN DYNAMICS USING RANDOM FOREST: IMPLEMENTING ROC AND TOC FOR MODEL EVALUATION

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B2 ◽  
pp. 285-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ahmadlou ◽  
M. R. Delavar ◽  
H. Shafizadeh-Moghadam ◽  
A. Tayyebi
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Urban Dynamics ◽  
Suitability Map ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Complex Relationships ◽  
Landsat Satellite

The importance of spatial accuracy of land use/cover change maps necessitates the use of high performance models. To reach this goal, calibrating machine learning (ML) approaches to model land use/cover conversions have received increasing interest among the scholars. This originates from the strength of these techniques as they powerfully account for the complex relationships underlying urban dynamics. Compared to other ML techniques, random forest has rarely been used for modeling urban growth. This paper, drawing on information from the multi-temporal Landsat satellite images of 1985, 2000 and 2015, calibrates a random forest regression (RFR) model to quantify the variable importance and simulation of urban change spatial patterns. The results and performance of RFR model were evaluated using two complementary tools, relative operating characteristics (ROC) and total operating characteristics (TOC), by overlaying the map of observed change and the modeled suitability map for land use change (error map). The suitability map produced by RFR model showed 82.48% area under curve for the ROC model which indicates a very good performance and highlights its appropriateness for simulating urban growth.

scholarly journals MODELING URBAN DYNAMICS USING RANDOM FOREST: IMPLEMENTING ROC AND TOC FOR MODEL EVALUATION

2016 ◽  
Vol XLI-B2 ◽  
pp. 285-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ahmadlou ◽  
M. R. Delavar ◽  
H. Shafizadeh-Moghadam ◽  
A. Tayyebi
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
High Performance ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Urban Dynamics ◽  
Suitability Map ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Complex Relationships ◽  
Landsat Satellite

The importance of spatial accuracy of land use/cover change maps necessitates the use of high performance models. To reach this goal, calibrating machine learning (ML) approaches to model land use/cover conversions have received increasing interest among the scholars. This originates from the strength of these techniques as they powerfully account for the complex relationships underlying urban dynamics. Compared to other ML techniques, random forest has rarely been used for modeling urban growth. This paper, drawing on information from the multi-temporal Landsat satellite images of 1985, 2000 and 2015, calibrates a random forest regression (RFR) model to quantify the variable importance and simulation of urban change spatial patterns. The results and performance of RFR model were evaluated using two complementary tools, relative operating characteristics (ROC) and total operating characteristics (TOC), by overlaying the map of observed change and the modeled suitability map for land use change (error map). The suitability map produced by RFR model showed 82.48% area under curve for the ROC model which indicates a very good performance and highlights its appropriateness for simulating urban growth.

Load-balancing evaluation model based on pre-defined variability

2009 ◽  
Vol 29 (10) ◽  
pp. 2849-2851
Author(s):  
Li-lun ZHANG ◽  
Jian-ping WU ◽  
Jun-qiang SONG
Keyword(s):  
Load Balancing ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Model Based

Analysis of Land Use Land Cover in Annapurna Conservation Area in Gandaki Province, Nepal using Vegetation Index and Land Use Land Cover Datasets

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-99
Author(s):  
Shiva Pokhrel ◽  
Chungla Sherpa
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
National Level ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Conservation Area ◽  
Barren Land ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Annapurna Conservation Area

Conservation areas are originally well-known for protecting landscape features and wildlife. They are playing key role in conserving and providing a wide range of ecosystem services, social, economic and cultural benefits as well as vital places for climate mitigation and adaptation. We have analyzed decadal changes in land cover and status of vegetation cover in the conservation area using both national level available data on land use land cover (LULC) changes (1990-2010) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (2010-2018) in Annapurna conservation area. LULC showed the barren land as the most dominant land cover types in all three different time series 1990, 2000 and 2010 with followed by snow cover, grassland, forest, agriculture and water body. The highest NDVI values were observed at Southern, Southwestern and Southeastern part of conservation area consisting of forest area, shrub land and grassland while toward low to negative in the upper middle to the Northern part of the conservation area.

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