Spatial analysis of perceived health system capability and actual health system capacity for COVID-19 in South Africa
Abstract People’s confidence on the health system capability in managing COVID-19 outbreak can determine public support, risk perceptions and compliance behaviours during the pandemic. Therefore, this paper investigated people’s perception on health system capability using online survey data and current state of health system capacity to deal with COVID-19 pandemic at different spatial areas across the country. Simple and multiple logistic regression models were used to examine the factors associated with perception of the health system’s capability to manage the COVID-19 pandemic at a national level and within each province. Spatial comparative analysis was conducted on perception of health system capability and density indicators of health system capacity. Findings showed South Africans had low confidence on health system capability with only two in five (40.7%) reporting that they thought that the country’s health system was able to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. Sex and knowledge on COVID-19 were significantly associated with the perception of the health system’s capability to manage the pandemic at the national level and in four of the nine provinces. Overall, the findings of this study clearly highlights the challenges on the country’s health system both perceived or real that needed to be addressed as part of the preparation for the COVID-19 pandemic. Timeous implementation of a countrywide National Health Insurance (NHI) system is now more critical than ever in improving health care outcomes of the South African population even beyond the existence of the COVID-19 epidemic.