scholarly journals Examining the Effects of Climate Change and Political Instability on Maize Production in Somalia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdimalik Ali Warsame ◽  
Ibrahim Abdukadir Sheik-Ali ◽  
Galad Mohamed Barre ◽  
Abdulnasir Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Favourable Effect ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Agricultural production is sensirive to climate variabilities, so climate change-agriculture sector nexus is topical in developing countries. Given that, this study models the impact of climate change variables – rainfall and temperature – on maize production in Somalia. The study also incorporates political instability as a main determinant variable of maize production. Several econometric methodologies – Johansen and juselius cointegration, Fully modified ordinary least square(FMOLS), Canonical cointegration regression(CCR), variance decomposition(VD) and impulse response function(IRF) – were espoused with a time series data spanning between 1980 and 2018. The empirical results of Johansen and juselius cointegration show that the explanatory variables are cointegrated to the maize output in the long-run. The study also revealed that average temperature and political instability significantly inhibit maize production in the long-run. Whereas rainfall has a favourable effect on maize production in the long-run. Furthermore, land degradation and land area under maize cultivation – incorporated in the model as control variables – are observed to have positive effects on maize production in the long-run. Based on these findings, the study emphesizes the importane of the de-escalation of conflicts and the implementation of irrigation facilities which will enhance the prdocutiivity of maize crop production.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact On Rice Production in Pakistan: An ARDL-Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheng Jiang ◽  
Habibullah Magsi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

This research paper aims to examine the relationship between CO2, temperature, area, fertilizers and rice production in Pakistan. This study used Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests to check the order of integration of each variable. The cointegration analysis with ARDL bounds testing approach is used to examine the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan over time series data from the period 1968 to 2014. The parameter stability test of the model is also checked at the end. The results of estimation show that the important variables of the study are cointegrated demonstrating the presence of long-run association among them. Furthermore, climate change factors, e.g. CO2 and temperature have a long-run and short-run positive effect on the production of rice in Pakistan. This present work is original and it is first time empirically tested the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan. The annual time series data of 47 years enhances the validity of the empirical findings. The most fruitful finding of this research is that rice production in Pakistan is positively influenced by emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) at 5 percent significance level in both long-run and short-run.

Another Side of the Coin: Exchange Rate Movements and the Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 63-79
Author(s):  
Anthony Orji ◽  
Jonathan E. Ogbuabor ◽  
Chiamaka Okeke ◽  
Onyinye I. Anthony-Orji
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study estimated the impact of exchange rate (EXCH) movements on the manufacturing sector in Nigeria over the period 1981–2016. Time series data and ordinary least square (OLS) estimation technique were employed in this study to address the specified objective. The variables analysed were EXCH, manufacturing GDP (MGDP), government capital expenditure, foreign direct investment (FDI), credit to private sector and value of imports. From the result, it is apparent that EXCH movements play a significant role in the manufacturing sector’s performance in Nigeria. Specifically, the findings showed that EXCH, government capital expenditure (GCEXP), imports and FDI were positively related to MGDP, while credit to private sector was negatively related. Among others, the study recommends that the apex bank keep a closer watch on EXCH developments in order to keep formulating up-to-date policies that will ultimately enhance EXCH stability. This will largely contribute to the development of the manufacturing sector in the short and long run. JEL Classification: D51, F31, Q24

scholarly journals How far climate change affects the Indonesian paddy production and rice price volatility?

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia Sari Busnita, Rina Oktaviani, Tanti Novianti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Security Issue ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
The Impact

Food security issue after 2008 global-crisis is something relate with the climate change phenomenon which had worsened on the last few decades. The impact of global climate change can be seen from the fluctuation of main crops production yield in tropical countries. This has affected the food price fluctuations particularly on the grain price, both international and domestic markets. The rice-commodity, known for its thin market characteristics, is now also experiencing the fluctuation of production, its productivity and also the rice price. Considering the importance of rice as the main staple food in Indonesia, the purpose of this research is to identify the Indonesia’s rice price fluctuation (volatility) and to investigate how far climate change affects the Indonesian paddy production and rice price volatility. By applying monthly time-series data from 2007 to 2014, this research used ARCH-GARCH methods to find out the rice price volatility and VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) to investigate the impact of climate change phenomenon on the Indonesian paddy production, as well as rice price volatility both in the short-run and long-run. The result is important for the stakeholders and government in preventing the risk and uncertainty condition of paddy production and rice price fluctuation caused by climate change

scholarly journals Effect of Foreign Aids on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 194-204
Author(s):  
Isiaka Najeem Ayodeji ◽  
Makinde Wasiu Abiodun
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study investigated the impact of foreign aids on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data spanned from 1990 to 2017. The research considered the secondary data that were gathered from CBN statistical bulletin 2017 and World Bank Data Indictors. Ordinary Least Square techniques was adopted in the study and used Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test, co integration test, granger causality test, ECM to estimates data employed. The findings revealed that all the variables employed were stationary at first difference and integrated at the same order1(I), the co-integration test shows that variables are co-integrated at one co-integrating equation which means that there is a long run relationship. The Error Correction Model established that the error that caused disequilibrium in the short run is being corrected in the long-run at a speed of adjustment at 6%. The findings revealed real gross domestic product responds inversely to changes in official development assistance and foreign direct investment. Based on these findings the study concluded that foreign aids have a significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Different diagnostic tests are applied in order to confirm the major assumption of multiple regression analysis like multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. Therefore, the study recommends among others that government needs to formulate strong and effective education and healthcare policies to facilitate and attract investment in the sectors and improve their efficiency in the long-run that will influence productivity.

scholarly journals The effect of inflation on economic growth in Ghana, 1995-2019: Post democratic analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 230-242
Author(s):  
Yenube Clement Kunkuaboor ◽  
Moisob Adamu ◽  
Miilon Sommik-Duut ◽  
Fatawu Abdul-Seidu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ols Regression ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causal Impact ◽  
The Impact

Background: One of the fundamental goals of macroeconomic policy in many nations, both developed and developing, is to foster economic development while keeping inflation low. There has been a debate as to whether inflation impacts negatively on economic growth or rather promotes economic growth. The study is motivated by this controversy and used time-series data from 1995 to 2019 in Ghana to examine the relationship between inflation and economic growth, establish the long-run effect and also test whether there exists a causal effect between inflation and economic growth. Method: The review utilized Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression examination to inspect the impact of inflation on economic growth and while long run co-integration relationship was additionally decide utilizing Fully Modified (FM-OLS) regression analysis. Granger causality was investigated to see if there is a causal impact among inflation and economic growth. Model diagnoses were performed to discover the strength of the discoveries where autocorrelation, multicollinearity, normality test and heteroscedasticity were tested. Results: The review uncovered that, inflation has a negative measurably irrelevant impact on economic growth at 5% basic level. The concentrate likewise uncovered that there was co-integration relationship between inflation and economic growth during the time of viable 1995-2019. There was no causal impact among inflation and economic growth, in this way neither inflation nor economic growth Granger-Causes the other. The study suggest that inflation targeting ought to be the best financial approach measure for economic growth by keeping up with the rate at 8+/-2%.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

scholarly journals Climatic Trends in Different Bioclimatic Zones in the Chitwan Annapurna Landscape, Nepal

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 136
Author(s):  
Dol Raj Luitel ◽  
Pramod K. Jha ◽  
Mohan Siwakoti ◽  
Madan Lall Shrestha ◽  
Rangaswamy Munniappan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
Bioclimatic Zone ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Trends

The Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) is the central part of the Himalayas and covers all bioclimatic zones with major endemism of flora, unique agro-biodiversity, environmental, cultural and socio-economic importance. Not much is known about temperature and precipitation trends along the different bioclimatic zones nor how changes in these parameters might impact the whole natural process, including biodiversity and ecosystems, in the CHAL. Analysis of daily temperature and precipitation time series data (1970–2019) was carried out in seven bioclimatic zones extending from lowland Terai to the higher Himalayas. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to determine the trends, which were quantified by Sen’s slope. Annual and decade interval average temperature, precipitation trends, and lapse rate were analyzed in each bioclimatic zone. In the seven bioclimatic zones, precipitation showed a mixed pattern of decreasing and increasing trends (four bioclimatic zones showed a decreasing and three bioclimatic zones an increasing trend). Precipitation did not show any particular trend at decade intervals but the pattern of rainfall decreases after 2000AD. The average annual temperature at different bioclimatic zones clearly indicates that temperature at higher elevations is increasing significantly more than at lower elevations. In lower tropical bioclimatic zone (LTBZ), upper tropical bioclimatic zone (UTBZ), lower subtropical bioclimatic zone (LSBZ), upper subtropical bioclimatic zone (USBZ), and temperate bioclimatic zone (TBZ), the average temperature increased by 0.022, 0.030, 0.036, 0.042 and 0.051 °C/year, respectively. The decade level temperature scenario revealed that the hottest decade was from 1999–2009 and average decade level increases of temperature at different bioclimatic zones ranges from 0.2 to 0.27 °C /decade. The average temperature and precipitation was found clearly different from one bioclimatic zone to other. This is the first time that bioclimatic zone level precipitation and temperature trends have been analyzed for the CHAL. The rate of additional temperature rise at higher altitudes compared to lower elevations meets the requirements to mitigate climate change in different bioclimatic zones in a different ways. This information would be fundamental to safeguarding vulnerable communities, ecosystem and relevant climate-sensitive sectors from the impact of climate change through formulation of sector-wise climate change adaptation strategies and improving the livelihood of rural communities.

scholarly journals BANKING SECTOR LIBERALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 125-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Najia SAQIB
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Financial Systems ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
The Impact

Economic theory suggests that sound and efficient financial systems channel capitals to its most productive uses are beneficial for economic growth. Sound and efficient financial systems are especially important for sustaining growth in developing countries. This paper examines the impact of banking sector liberalization on long-term economic growth in Pakistan by using a time series data for the period 1971–2011. The results show that there exist a significant positive long run relationship between banking sector development and economic growth in the country. The sensitivity analysis also shows that the relationship remain positive and significant no matter what combination of the omitted variables are used in the basic model. Thus, our findings support the core idea that banking sector development stimulates long term economic growth in a country.

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