scholarly journals Climatic Trends in Different Bioclimatic Zones in the Chitwan Annapurna Landscape, Nepal

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 136
Author(s):  
Dol Raj Luitel ◽  
Pramod K. Jha ◽  
Mohan Siwakoti ◽  
Madan Lall Shrestha ◽  
Rangaswamy Munniappan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
Bioclimatic Zone ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Trends

The Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) is the central part of the Himalayas and covers all bioclimatic zones with major endemism of flora, unique agro-biodiversity, environmental, cultural and socio-economic importance. Not much is known about temperature and precipitation trends along the different bioclimatic zones nor how changes in these parameters might impact the whole natural process, including biodiversity and ecosystems, in the CHAL. Analysis of daily temperature and precipitation time series data (1970–2019) was carried out in seven bioclimatic zones extending from lowland Terai to the higher Himalayas. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to determine the trends, which were quantified by Sen’s slope. Annual and decade interval average temperature, precipitation trends, and lapse rate were analyzed in each bioclimatic zone. In the seven bioclimatic zones, precipitation showed a mixed pattern of decreasing and increasing trends (four bioclimatic zones showed a decreasing and three bioclimatic zones an increasing trend). Precipitation did not show any particular trend at decade intervals but the pattern of rainfall decreases after 2000AD. The average annual temperature at different bioclimatic zones clearly indicates that temperature at higher elevations is increasing significantly more than at lower elevations. In lower tropical bioclimatic zone (LTBZ), upper tropical bioclimatic zone (UTBZ), lower subtropical bioclimatic zone (LSBZ), upper subtropical bioclimatic zone (USBZ), and temperate bioclimatic zone (TBZ), the average temperature increased by 0.022, 0.030, 0.036, 0.042 and 0.051 °C/year, respectively. The decade level temperature scenario revealed that the hottest decade was from 1999–2009 and average decade level increases of temperature at different bioclimatic zones ranges from 0.2 to 0.27 °C /decade. The average temperature and precipitation was found clearly different from one bioclimatic zone to other. This is the first time that bioclimatic zone level precipitation and temperature trends have been analyzed for the CHAL. The rate of additional temperature rise at higher altitudes compared to lower elevations meets the requirements to mitigate climate change in different bioclimatic zones in a different ways. This information would be fundamental to safeguarding vulnerable communities, ecosystem and relevant climate-sensitive sectors from the impact of climate change through formulation of sector-wise climate change adaptation strategies and improving the livelihood of rural communities.

scholarly journals Climatic Trend in Different Bioclimatic Zones in Chitwan Annapurna Landscape, Nepal

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dol Raj Luitel ◽  
Pramod Kumar Jha ◽  
Mohan Siwakot ◽  
Madan Lall Shrestha ◽  
Rangaswamy Munniappan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Climatic Trend ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
Bioclimatic Zone ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Depending upon altitudinal gradient in the Himalayas, the rate of climate change varies from lowland to upland. The Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) is the central part of the Himalayas and covers all bioclimatic zones. Analysis of time series data (1970-2019) of temperature and precipitation was carried out in seven bioclimatic zones extending from lowland Terai to higher Himalayas. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied to determine the trend, which was quantified by Sen’s slope. Annual and decade interval average temperature, precipitation trends, and lapse rate were analyzed in each bioclimatic zone. Out of seven bioclimatic zones, four zones showed a decreasing precipitation trend (lower tropical, upper tropical, upper subtropical, and alpine bioclimatic zones)at the rate of 1.8, 1.98, 2.06, and 1.80 mm/year, and in lower sub-tropical, temperate, and lower subalpine bioclimatic zones, increasing at the rate of 0.45, 1.81 and 1.28mm/year, respectively. Precipitation did not show any particular trend at decade intervals. The average annual temperature at different bioclimatic zones clearly indicates that temperature at higher elevations is significantly increasing more than at lower elevations. In lower tropical bioclimatic zone (LTBZ), upper tropical bioclimatic zone(UTBZ), lower subtropical bioclimatic zone (LSBZ), upper subtropical bioclimatic zone(USBZ), and temperate bioclimatic zone(TBZ), the average temperature increased by 0.022, 0.030, 0.036, 0.042 and 0.051oC/year, respectively. The decade level temperature scenario revealed that the hottest decade was from 1999-2009. The average temperature was found as 24.1, 21.8, 19.7, 17.5, and 13.3oC in LTBZ, UTBZ, LSBZ, USBZ, and TBZ, respectively, and the average annual precipitation in LTBZ, UTBZ, LSBZ, USBZ, TBZ, LBZ, and ABZ was 2002.1, 2613.1, 2223.9, 3146.9, 1447.2, 952.1, and 361.7mm/year, respectively, in CHAL. With the impact of climate change site and region-specific, this information highlights the need to mitigate climate change in different bioclimatic zones.

scholarly journals Preliminary results of mass-balance observations of Yala Glacier and analysis of temperature and precipitation gradients in Langtang Valley, Nepal

2014 ◽  
Vol 55 (66) ◽  
pp. 9-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prashant Baral ◽  
Rijan B. Kayastha ◽  
Walter W. Immerzeel ◽  
Niraj S. Pradhananga ◽  
Bikas C. Bhattarai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Glacier Mass Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Langtang Valley

AbstractMonitoring the glacier mass balance of summer-accumulation-type Himalayan glaciers is critical to not only assess the impact of climate change on the volume of such glaciers but also predict the downstream water availability and the global sea-level change in future. To better understand the change in meteorological parameters related to glacier mass balance and runoff in a glacierized basin and to assess the highly heterogeneous glacier responses to climate change in the Nepal Himalaya and nearby ranges, the Cryosphere Monitoring Project (CMP) carries out meteorological observations in Langtang Valley and mass-balance measurements on Yala Glacier, a debris-free glacier in the same valley. A negative annual mass balance of –0.89m w.e. and the rising equilibrium-line altitude of Yala Glacier indicate a continuation of a secular trend toward more negative mass balances. Lower temperature lapse rate during the monsoon, the effect of convective precipitation associated with mesoscale thermal circulation in the local precipitation and the occurrence of distinct diurnal cycles of temperature and precipitation at different stations in the valley are other conclusions of this comprehensive scientific study initiated by CMP which aims to yield multi-year glaciological, hydrological and meteorological observations in the glacierized Langtang River basin.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact On Rice Production in Pakistan: An ARDL-Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheng Jiang ◽  
Habibullah Magsi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Bounds Testing Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ardl Bounds Testing Approach

This research paper aims to examine the relationship between CO2, temperature, area, fertilizers and rice production in Pakistan. This study used Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests to check the order of integration of each variable. The cointegration analysis with ARDL bounds testing approach is used to examine the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan over time series data from the period 1968 to 2014. The parameter stability test of the model is also checked at the end. The results of estimation show that the important variables of the study are cointegrated demonstrating the presence of long-run association among them. Furthermore, climate change factors, e.g. CO2 and temperature have a long-run and short-run positive effect on the production of rice in Pakistan. This present work is original and it is first time empirically tested the impact of climate change on rice production in Pakistan. The annual time series data of 47 years enhances the validity of the empirical findings. The most fruitful finding of this research is that rice production in Pakistan is positively influenced by emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) at 5 percent significance level in both long-run and short-run.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on agricultural production in Nepal: Case of Kavre and Jumla districts

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 43-50
Author(s):  
K.S. Pandey ◽  
H. Shrestha ◽  
L.P. Devkota
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Series Data ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Specific Objective ◽  
Analytical Tools ◽  
The Impact

The study the analyzed relationship of climate change with agricultural production in Kavre and Jumla districts. The specific objective of the study was to find out the dimension and linkage between agricultural production and climatic parameters in Kavre and Jumla. Time series data were analysed for the study. The data was sourced from the Department of Hydrology Meteorology, Department of Agriculture, and National Bureau of Statistics. Descriptive statistics, linear analysis test and back ward difference filter were the analytical tools used to determine the impact of climate change on productivity. During harvest period, the correlation of rice yield with temperature and rainfall was negative at Kavre but positive at Jumla. Similarly, the correlation of wheat yield with temperature and rainfall was positive at Kavre but negative at Jumla. The result showed that extreme fluctuation in weather caused negative impact on production in Jumla in compared to Kavre districts.

scholarly journals How far climate change affects the Indonesian paddy production and rice price volatility?

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvia Sari Busnita, Rina Oktaviani, Tanti Novianti
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Security Issue ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rice Price ◽  
The Impact

Food security issue after 2008 global-crisis is something relate with the climate change phenomenon which had worsened on the last few decades. The impact of global climate change can be seen from the fluctuation of main crops production yield in tropical countries. This has affected the food price fluctuations particularly on the grain price, both international and domestic markets. The rice-commodity, known for its thin market characteristics, is now also experiencing the fluctuation of production, its productivity and also the rice price. Considering the importance of rice as the main staple food in Indonesia, the purpose of this research is to identify the Indonesia’s rice price fluctuation (volatility) and to investigate how far climate change affects the Indonesian paddy production and rice price volatility. By applying monthly time-series data from 2007 to 2014, this research used ARCH-GARCH methods to find out the rice price volatility and VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) to investigate the impact of climate change phenomenon on the Indonesian paddy production, as well as rice price volatility both in the short-run and long-run. The result is important for the stakeholders and government in preventing the risk and uncertainty condition of paddy production and rice price fluctuation caused by climate change

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on the Production of Major Food and Commercial Crops in India: A Five Decadal Study

2019 ◽  
pp. 477-485
Author(s):  
Pooja Arora ◽  
Rajni Devi ◽  
Smita Chaudhry
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Major Food ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is posing a great threat to agriculture and food security, especially in the agriculture oriented and developing countries like India. The present study was carried out to critically study the impact of climate change on productivity of major cereal and commercial crops by statistically analyzing the time series data.  The analysis inferred that crop production of both food and commercial crops in India has increased since 1960-61. It was observed that major food crops (rice & wheat) were adversely affected by increase in maximum temperature and decrease in rainfall. The alternative measures such as area under cultivation, irrigation, fertilizer and pesticide consumption were observed to be nullifying that negative impact of climate change by enhancing the overall production. However, the commercial crops were observed to be positively affected by the increasing temperature. The study suggested that although the agriculture sector is able to withstand the adverse impact of climate change till now, but in near future this situation can become reversed. This necessitates the implementation of appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures to deal with the problems of climate change and to ensure the food security and food safety along in long run.

scholarly journals ASSESSING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TEAK AND SAL LANDSCAPE USING MODIS TIME SERIES DATA

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-5 ◽  
pp. 305-313 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. K. Patasaraiya ◽  
B. Sinha ◽  
J. Bisaria ◽  
S. Saran ◽  
R. K. Jaiswal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Vegetation Indices ◽  
Central India ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Impact

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Climate change poses a severe threat to the forest ecosystems by impacting its productivity, species composition and forest biodiversity at global and regional level. The scientific community all over the world is using remote sensing techniques to monitor and assess the impact of climate change on forest ecosystems. The consistent time series data provided by MODIS is immensely used for developing a different type of Vegetation indices like NDVI (Normalized difference vegetation indices) products at different spatial and temporal resolution. These vegetation indices have significant potential to detect forest growth and health, vegetation seasonality and different phenological events like budding and flowering. The current study aims to understand the impact of climate change on Teak and Sal forest of STR (Satpura tiger reserve) in central India by using Landsat and MODIS time series data. The rationale for taking STR as study site was to attribute the changes exclusively to climate change as there is no anthropogenic disturbance in STR. A change detection analysis was carried out to detect changes between the period 2017 and 1990 using Landsat data of October month. To understand the inter-annual and seasonal variation of Teak and Sal forests, freely available MOD13Q1 product (250<span class="thinspace"></span>m, 16 days’ interval) was used to extract NDVI values for each month and four seasons (DJF, JJAS, ON, MAM) for the period 2000 to 2015. The climatic data (rainfall and temperature) was sourced from IMD (India Meteorological Department) at different resolutions (1, 0.5 and 0.25 degree) for the given period of the study. A correlation analysis was done to establish a causal relationship between climate variable (temperature and rainfall) and vegetation health (NDVI) on a different temporal scale of annual, seasonal and month. The study found an increasing trend in annual mean temperature and no consistent trend in total annual rainfall over the period 2000 to 2015. The maximum percentage change was observed in minimum temperature over the period 2000 to 2015. The average annual NDVI of Teak and Sal forests showed an increasing trend however, no trend was observed in seasonal and monthly NDVI over the same period. The maximum and minimum NDVI was found in the post-monsoon months (ON) and summer months (MAM) respectively. As STR is a Teak and Sal dominated landscape, the findings of the current study can also be applied in developing silvicultural and adaptation strategies for other Teak and Sal dominated landscapes of central India.</p>

scholarly journals Host immunity shapes the impact of climate changes on the dynamics of parasite infections

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (11) ◽  
pp. 2970-2975 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Mignatti ◽  
Brian Boag ◽  
Isabella M. Cattadori
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Host Immunity ◽  
Helminth Species ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Parasite Infections ◽  
The Impact

Global climate change is predicted to alter the distribution and dynamics of soil-transmitted helminth infections, and yet host immunity can also influence the impact of warming on host–parasite interactions and mitigate the long-term effects. We used time-series data from two helminth species of a natural herbivore and investigated the contribution of climate change and immunity on the long-term and seasonal dynamics of infection. We provide evidence that climate warming increases the availability of infective stages of both helminth species and the proportional increase in the intensity of infection for the helminth not regulated by immunity. In contrast, there is no significant long-term positive trend in the intensity for the immune-controlled helminth, as immunity reduces the net outcome of climate on parasite dynamics. Even so, hosts experienced higher infections of this helminth at an earlier age during critical months in the warmer years. Immunity can alleviate the expected long-term effect of climate on parasite infections but can also shift the seasonal peak of infection toward the younger individuals.

scholarly journals The effects of climate change on cereals yield of production and food security in Gambia

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 83-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alieu Loum ◽  
Csaba Fogarassy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
The Gambia ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Production Section ◽  
The Impact

Increasingly, empirical evidences are substantiating the effects of climate change on agricultural production is a reality. In the early part of the 20th century many were skeptical about the so-called climate change that is due to global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) defines climate change as follows: “climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean or variability of its properties and that persists for extended periods, typically decades or longer” This study analyses the impact of climate change on cereals production (millet and maize) in the Gambia using a time series data for a period of 46 years (1960 – 2013) at an aggregate level to assess the relationship between climate (temperatures and rainfall,) and non-climate variables fertilizer, area planted respectively and yield. The specific objectives of the research are: (1) How climate change affects the expected cereals (Millet and Maize) output or yield in the Gambia. (2) How the level of output risk within cereals (Millet and Maize) farming is affected? In order to achieve these set objectives, the paper will adopt Just and Pope modified Ricardian production functions for climate change impact assessments (e.g., Chen et al. 2004), the paper will also control for the impacts of regular input factors in the production process. The study used a data set for the Gambia comprising variables relevant for cereals production and climate information from 1960 through 2013. There is strong evidence that climate will affects Maize and Millet; according to the analysis 77% and 44% of the variability in the yield of Maize and Millet respectively is explained by the climate and non-climate variables included in the model. Given the effects of climate variables on cereals production, and increasing climate change vulnerabilities on other food production section, the result of this paper will add voice to the growing call for policy makers to step up funding in research and development in climate change adaptation and mitigation. JEL classification: Q54

scholarly journals Examining the Effects of Climate Change and Political Instability on Maize Production in Somalia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdimalik Ali Warsame ◽  
Ibrahim Abdukadir Sheik-Ali ◽  
Galad Mohamed Barre ◽  
Abdulnasir Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Favourable Effect ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Agricultural production is sensirive to climate variabilities, so climate change-agriculture sector nexus is topical in developing countries. Given that, this study models the impact of climate change variables – rainfall and temperature – on maize production in Somalia. The study also incorporates political instability as a main determinant variable of maize production. Several econometric methodologies – Johansen and juselius cointegration, Fully modified ordinary least square(FMOLS), Canonical cointegration regression(CCR), variance decomposition(VD) and impulse response function(IRF) – were espoused with a time series data spanning between 1980 and 2018. The empirical results of Johansen and juselius cointegration show that the explanatory variables are cointegrated to the maize output in the long-run. The study also revealed that average temperature and political instability significantly inhibit maize production in the long-run. Whereas rainfall has a favourable effect on maize production in the long-run. Furthermore, land degradation and land area under maize cultivation – incorporated in the model as control variables – are observed to have positive effects on maize production in the long-run. Based on these findings, the study emphesizes the importane of the de-escalation of conflicts and the implementation of irrigation facilities which will enhance the prdocutiivity of maize crop production.

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