Impacts of interannual climate and biophysical variability on global agriculture markets

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Zhao ◽  
Katherine Calvin ◽  
Marshall Wise ◽  
Pralit Patel ◽  
Abigail Snyder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Standard Assumption ◽  
Adaptive Expectations ◽  
Equilibrium Modeling ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
Global Agriculture

Abstract Most studies assessing climate impacts on agriculture have focused on average changes in market-mediated responses (e.g., changes in land use, production, and consumption). However, the response of global agricultural markets to interannual variability in climate and biophysical shocks is poorly understood and not well represented in global economic models. Here we show a strong transmission of interannual variations in climate-induced biophysical yield shocks to agriculture markets, which is further magnified by endogenous market fluctuations generated due to producers’ imperfect expectations of market and weather conditions. We demonstrate that the volatility of crop prices and consumption could be significantly underestimated (i.e., on average by 55% and 41%, respectively) by assuming perfect foresight, a standard assumption in the economic equilibrium modeling, compared with the relatively more realistic adaptive expectations. We also find heterogeneity in interannual variability across crops and regions, which is considerably mediated by international trade.

scholarly journals Greedy or needy? Land use and climate impacts of food in 2050 under different livestock futures

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elin Röös ◽  
Bojana Bajželj ◽  
Pete Smith ◽  
Mikaela Patel ◽  
David Little ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Impacts

scholarly journals Soil Carbon Modelling in Salix Biomass Plantations: Variety Determines Carbon Sequestration and Climate Impacts

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1529
Author(s):  
Saurav Kalita ◽  
Hanna Karlsson Potter ◽  
Martin Weih ◽  
Christel Baum ◽  
Åke Nordberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Carbon Sequestration ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Biomass Yield ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Carbon Modelling ◽  
Sequestration Potential ◽  
Determining Factor ◽  
Change Mitigation

Short-rotation coppice (SRC) Salix plantations have the potential to provide fast-growing biomass feedstock with significant soil and climate mitigation benefits. Salix varieties exhibit significant variation in their physiological traits, growth patterns and soil ecology—but the effects of these variations have rarely been studied from a systems perspective. This study analyses the influence of variety on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and climate impacts from Salix cultivation for heat production for a Swedish site with specific conditions. Soil carbon modelling was combined with a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach to quantify SOC sequestration and climate impacts over a 50-year period. The analysis used data from a Swedish field trial of six Salix varieties grown under fertilized and unfertilized treatments on Vertic Cambisols during 2001–2018. The Salix systems were compared with a reference case where heat is produced from natural gas and green fallow was the land use alternative. Climate impacts were determined using time-dependent LCA methodology—on a land-use (per hectare) and delivered energy unit (per MJheat) basis. All Salix varieties and treatments increased SOC, but the magnitude depended on the variety. Fertilization led to lower carbon sequestration than the equivalent unfertilized case. There was no clear relationship between biomass yield and SOC increase. In comparison with reference cases, all Salix varieties had significant potential for climate change mitigation. From a land-use perspective, high yield was the most important determining factor, followed by SOC sequestration, therefore high-yielding fertilized varieties such as ‘Tordis’, ‘Tora’ and ‘Björn’ performed best. On an energy-delivered basis, SOC sequestration potential was the determining factor for the climate change mitigation effect, with unfertilized ‘Jorr’ and ‘Loden’ outperforming the other varieties. These results show that Salix variety has a strong influence on SOC sequestration potential, biomass yield, growth pattern, response to fertilization and, ultimately, climate impact.

scholarly journals Contribution of land use to the interannual variability of the land carbon cycle

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Yue ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Richard A. Houghton ◽  
Alexander A. Nassikas
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Interannual Variability

Land-use type affects nitrate production and consumption pathways in subtropical acidic soils

Geoderma ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 337 ◽  
pp. 22-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yushu Zhang ◽  
Xiangzhou Zheng ◽  
Xiangyun Ren ◽  
Jinbo Zhang ◽  
Tom Misselbrook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Type ◽  
Acidic Soils ◽  
Nitrate Production ◽  
Production And Consumption

scholarly journals Projected Urbanization Impacts on Surface Climate and Energy Budgets in the Pearl River Delta of China

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunhong Zhao ◽  
Qunou Jiang ◽  
Zhongxiao Sun ◽  
Haiyue Zhong ◽  
Shasha Lu
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Pearl River Delta ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Pearl River ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The Pearl River Delta ◽  
The Pearl River

The climate impacts of future urbanization in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region in China were simulated with the Dynamics of Land Systems (DLS) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in this study. The land use and land cover data in 2000 and 2020 were simulated with the DLS model based on the regional development planning. Then the spatial and temporal changes of surface air temperature, ground heat flux, and regional precipitation in 2020 were quantified and analyzed through comparing simulation results by WRF. Results show that the built-up land will become the dominant land use type in the PRD in 2020. Besides, the near-surface air temperature shows an increasing trend on the whole region in both summer and winter, but with some seasonal variation. The urban temperature rise is more apparent in summer than it is in winter. In addition, there is some difference between the spatial pattern of precipitation in summer and winter in 2020; the spatial variation of precipitation is a bit greater in summer than it is in winter. Results can provide significant reference for the land use management to alleviate the climate change.

scholarly journals A climatology of the diurnal variations in stratospheric and mesospheric ozone over Bern, Switzerland

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 5905-5919 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Studer ◽  
K. Hocke ◽  
A. Schanz ◽  
H. Schmidt ◽  
N. Kämpfer
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Diurnal Variations ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Unique Data ◽  
Ozone Variation ◽  
Mesospheric Ozone ◽  
Good Agreement

Abstract. The ground-based radiometer GROMOS, stationed in Bern (47.95° N, 7.44° E), Switzerland, has a unique data set: it obtains ozone profiles from November 1994 to present with a time resolution of 30 min and equivalent quality during night- and daytime. Here, we derive a monthly climatology of the daily ozone cycle from 17 years of GROMOS observation. We present the diurnal ozone variation of the stratosphere and mesosphere. Characterizing the diurnal cycle of stratospheric ozone is important for correct trend estimates of the ozone layer derived from satellite observations. The diurnal ozone cycle from GROMOS is compared to two models: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and the Hamburg Model of Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA). Generally, observation and models show a good agreement: in the lower mesosphere, daytime ozone is for both GROMOS and models around 25% less than midnight ozone. In the stratosphere, ozone reaches its maximum in the afternoon showing values several percent larger than the midnight value. Further, GROMOS and models indicate a seasonal behaviour of the diurnal ozone variations in the stratosphere with a larger afternoon maximum during daytime in summer than in winter. Using the 17 years of ozone profiles from GROMOS, we find strong interannual variations in the diurnal ozone cycle for both the stratosphere and the mesosphere. Interannual variability in temperature, atmospheric circulation and composition may explain the observed interannual variability of the diurnal ozone cycle above Bern.

scholarly journals Climate Impacts of Land-Cover and Land-Use Changes in Tropical Islands under Conditions of Global Climate Change

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 1535-1550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel E. Comarazamy ◽  
Jorge E. González ◽  
Jeffrey C. Luvall ◽  
Douglas L. Rickman ◽  
Robert D. Bornstein
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Atmospheric Modeling ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Tropical Islands ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Convergence Zones

Abstract Land-cover and land-use (LCLU) changes have significant climate impacts in tropical coastal regions with the added complexity of occurring within the context of a warming climate. The individual and combined effects of these two factors in tropical islands are investigated by use of an integrated mesoscale atmospheric modeling approach, taking the northeastern region of Puerto Rico as the test case. To achieve this goal, an ensemble of climate simulations is performed, combining two LCLU and global warming scenarios. Reconstructed agricultural maps and sea surface temperatures form the past (1955–59) scenario, while the present (2000–04) scenario is supported with high-resolution remote sensing LCLU data. Here, the authors show that LCLU changes produced the largest near-surface (2-m AGL) air temperature differences over heavily urbanized regions and that these changes do not penetrate the boundary layer. The influence of the global warming signal induces a positive inland gradient of maximum temperature, possibly because of increased trade winds in the present climatology. These increased winds also generate convergence zones and convection that transport heat and moisture into the boundary layer. In terms of minimum temperatures, the global warming signal induces temperature increases along the coastal plains and inland lowlands.

Where’s the fire? Using in-situ observations from the NOAA/NASA FIREX-AQ campaign to validate small fire in the central and southern U.S.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eileen Rintsch ◽  
Jessica L. McCarty
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Infrared Imaging ◽  
The United States ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Pollution Monitoring ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Emissions Inventories

<p>Crop residue and rangeland burning is a common practice in the United States but verified ground-based estimates for the frequency of these fires is sparse. We present a comparison between known fire locations collected during the summer 2019 NOAA/NASA FIREX-AQ field campaign with several satellite-based active fire detections to estimate the occurrence of small-scale fires in agroecosystems. Many emissions inventories at the state-, country-, and global-level are driven by active fire detections and not burned area estimates for small fires in agroecosystems. The study area is focused on the southern Great Plains and Mississippi Delta of the United States. We combined fire occurrence data from 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (VIIRS), 1 km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and 2 km Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) active fires with 30 m land use data from U.S. Department of Agriculture Cropland Data Layer (CDL). The detections were compared to fires and land use validated in the field during the NOAA/NASA FIREX-AQ mission. GOES detected these fires at a higher frequency than MODIS or VIIRS. For example, MODIS detected 873 active fires and VIIRS detected 2,859, while GOES detected 13,634 active fires. Additionally, a large amount of the fires documented in the field, approximately 41%, were not detected by any satellite instrument used in the study. If GOES detections are excluded, approximately 5% of the documented fires were detected. This suggests that a large amount of cropland and rangeland burning are not detected by current active fire products from polar orbiting satellites like MODIS and VIIRS, with implications for regional air pollution monitoring, emissions inventories, and climate impacts of open burning.  </p>

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