scholarly journals COVID-19 outbreak and control in Kenya- Insights from a mathematical model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Waema Mbogo ◽  
Titus Okello Orwa
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Capital City ◽  
World Health ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
The World ◽  
Rate Of Recovery ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 ( COVID -19) pandemic reached Kenya in March 2020 with the initial cases reported in the capital city Nairobi and in the coastal area Mombasa. As reported by the World Health Organization, the outbreak of COVID -19 has spread across the world, killed many, collapsed economies and changed the way people live since it was first reported in Wuhan, China, in the end of 2019. As of May 25,2020 It had led to over 100,000 confirmed cases in Africa with over 3000 deaths. The trend poses a huge threat to global public health. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas. We employed a SEIHCRD mathematical transmission model with reported Kenyan data on cases of COVID -19 to estimate how transmission varies over time. The model is concise in structure, and successfully captures the course of the COVID -19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number ( $R_0$ ) from the model to assess the factors driving the infection . The results from the model analysis shows that non-pharmaceutical interventions over a relatively long period is needed to effectively get rid of the COVID -19 epidemic otherwise the rate of infection will continue to increase despite the increased rate of recovery.

scholarly journals COVID-19 outbreak and control in Kenya- Insights from a mathematical model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Waema Mbogo ◽  
Titus Okello Orwa
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Capital City ◽  
World Health ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
The World ◽  
Rate Of Recovery ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic reached Kenya in March 2020 with the initial cases reported in the capital city Nairobi and in the coastal area Mombasa. As reported by the World Health Organization, the outbreak of COVID-19 has spread across the world, killed many, collapsed economies and changed the way people live since it was first reported in Wuhan, China, in the end of 2019. As of May 25,2020 It had led to over 100,000 confirmed cases in Africa with over 3000 deaths. The trend poses a huge threat to global public health. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas.We employed a SEIHCRD mathematical transmission model with reported Kenyan data on cases of COVID-19 to estimate how transmission varies over time. The model is concise in structure, and successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number (R0) from the model to assess the factors driving the infection . The results from the model analysis shows that non-pharmaceutical interventions over a relatively long period is needed to effectively get rid of the COVID-19 epidemic otherwise the rate of infection will continue to increase despite the increased rate of recovery.

scholarly journals COVID-19 outbreak, social distancing and mass testing in Kenya - Insights from a mathematical model 

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Waema Mbogo ◽  
John W. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Informal Settlement ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract As reported by the World Health Organization (WHO), the world is currently facing a devastating pandemic of a novel coronavirus ( COVID -19), which started as an outbreak of pneumonia of unknown cause in the Wuhan city of China in December 2019. Within days and weeks, the COVID -19 pandemic had spread to over 210 countries. By the end of April, COVID -19 had caused over three million confirmed cases of infections and 230,000 fatalities globally. The trend poses a huge threat to global public health. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas.We employed a SEIHCRD delay differential mathematical transmission model with reported Kenyan data on cases of COVID -19 to estimate how transmission varies over time and which population to target for mass testing. The model is concise in structure, and successfully captures the course of the COVID -19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak and the vulnerable populations. The results from the model gives insights to the government on the population to target for mass testing. The government should target population in the informal settlement for mass testing. People with pre-existing medical and non-medical conditions should be identified and given special medical care. With aggressive effective mass testing and adhering to the government directives and guidelines, we can get rid of COVID -19 epidemic.

scholarly journals COVID-19 outbreak, social distancing and mass testing in Kenya - Insights from a mathematical model 

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Waema Mbogo ◽  
John W. Oddhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Informal Settlement ◽  
Target Population ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract As reported by the World Health Organization (WHO), the world is currently facing a devastating pandemic of a novel coronavirus ( COVID -19), which started as an outbreak of pneumonia of unknown cause in the Wuhan city of China in December 2019. Within days and weeks, the COVID -19 pandemic had spread to over 210 countries. By the end of April, COVID -19 had caused over three million confirmed cases of infections and 230,000 fatalities globally. The trend poses a huge threat to global public health. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas.We employed a SEIHCRD delay differential mathematical transmission model with reported Kenyan data on cases of COVID -19 to estimate how transmission varies over time and which population to target for mass testing. The model is concise in structure, and successfully captures the course of the COVID -19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak and the vulnerable populations. The results from the model gives insights to the government on the population to target for mass testing. The government should target population in the informal settlement for mass testing. People with pre-existing medical and non-medical conditions should be identified and given special medical care. With aggressive effective mass testing and adhering to the government directives and guidelines, we can get rid of COVID -19 epidemic.

scholarly journals Community grid management is an important measure to contain the spread of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19)

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chen Ling ◽  
Xianjie Wen
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Source Of Infection ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control ◽  
Grid Management

Abstract The outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia (coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)), declared as a ‘global pandemic’ by the World Health Organization (WHO), is a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). The outbreak in multiple locations shows a trend of accelerating spread around the world. China has taken a series of powerful measures to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to actively finding effective treatment drugs and developing vaccines, it is more important to identify the source of infection at the community level as soon as possible to block the transmission path of the virus to prevent the spread of the pandemic. The implementation of grid management in the community and the adoption of precise management and control measures to reduce unnecessary personnel movement can effectively reduce the risk of pandemic spread. This paper mainly describes that the grid management mode can promote the refinement and comprehensiveness of community management. As a management system with potential to improve the governance ability of community affairs, it may be helpful to strengthen the prevention and control of the epidemic in the community.

scholarly journals Update on the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Outbreak: A Global Pandemic Challenge

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhishek Kumar Soni
Keyword(s):  
World Health ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Global Challenge ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Therapeutic Algorithms ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control ◽  
Death Cases

The 2019 novel coronavirus (previously 2019-nCoV) or coronavirus infectious disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has been summarized as on March 29, 2020. COVID-19 is a highly transmittable and pathogenic viral infection caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SERS-CoV-2). The disease was first seen during an outbreak in Wuhan, China and continuous spreading from human to human around the sphere. The disease is uncontrolled and increasing the death toll through. The world is facing a global challenge to protect human lives caused by coronavirus outbreak. The number of infected patients is increasing day by day due to COVID-19 as a pandemic. The world health organization (WHO) has declared global public health emergency on January 30, 2020. The disease has been spread around 201 countries with total confirmed cases 634835 and death cases 29891 as on March 29, 2020. The goal of this review to summaries and update the clinical/medical features and suggestions for diagnosis of the COVID-19 as a pandemic. The discussion of the various therapeutic algorithms, risk, prevention and control based on the latest reports has been provided.

scholarly journals Repercussions of the COVID-19 Health Crisis In the Peruvian Informal Sector

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Vilma Andia-Choquepuma ◽  
Daniza Juana Leon-Escobedo ◽  
Himer Avila-George ◽  
orge Sánchez-Garcés ◽  
Ruth Elizabeth Villafuerte-Alcántara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Entry Points ◽  
The World ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

After the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of Coronavirus (COVID-19) a pandemic, the Peruvian government took preventive measures to counteract the spread of the virus by issuing Supreme Decree No. 008-2020-SA. This decree contains prevention and control measures aimed at ports, airports, land entry points, educational centers, transportation and workplaces.

scholarly journals Improving COVID-19 response: redirecting risk communication efforts towards equity issues

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 3-8
Author(s):  
Yisel Hernández Barrios ◽  
Luis Fonte Galindo ◽  
María del Carmen Zabala Argüelles ◽  
Dennis Pérez Chacón
Keyword(s):  
Health Problem ◽  
Social Communication ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Equity Issues ◽  
The World ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is, to date, the health problem with the highest impact in the 21st century. The World Health Organization has recommended several prevention and control measures to deal with this pandemic. In this context, social communication plays a key role. In this article we argue that the potential of communication efforts to close the gaps in the COVID-19 response worldwide won´t be fully accomplished until they do address equity-related issues.

scholarly journals The 2019 Novel Coronavirus Outbreak: Current Crises, Controversies and Global Strategies to Prevent a Pandemic

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyi Samson Enitan ◽  
Isaiah Nnana Ibeh ◽  
Adeolu Sunday Oluremi ◽  
Ayodeji OluSola Olayanju ◽  
Grace Eleojo Itodo
Keyword(s):  
Current Trend ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
World Health ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Associated Risk Factors ◽  
And Control ◽  
Global Strategies

The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) has been implicated in the outbreak of an uncommon pneumonia in Chinese City of Wuhan, Hubei Province first reported in late December 2019. Since then, infection has spread to other Chinese cities, as well as internationally, threatening to trigger a pandemic. On January 30 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) in an effort to slow down the global spread of the virus declared the outbreak, “A global public health emergency of international concern”. As at the time of this review, there were more than 31 000 confirmed cases and 638 deaths reported globally. Controversies exist on the origin of the virus with diverse views. The swift rise in morbidity and mortality rate of the virus has caused widespread alarm in China and other parts of the world. This review is aimed at providing relevant information on the possible origin of the virus, its mode of transmission, associated risk factors, existing controversies, consequences of the current trend and control interventions required to halt the widespread of the new coronavirus outbreak.

scholarly journals COVID-19: Modeling, Prediction, and Control

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 3666 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Bani Younes ◽  
Zeaid Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Volterra Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Prediction And Control ◽  
Modeling Prediction ◽  
Prime Objective ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
And Control

The newly emerging severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), also known as COVID-19, has been recognized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11th March 2020. There are many unknowns about this virus to date and no vaccine or conclusive treatment due to the lack of understanding of its pathogenesis and proliferation pathways which are unknown and cannot be traced. The prime objective is to stop its spread worldwide. This article aims to provide predictions of its spread using a stochastic Lotka–Volterra model coupled with an extended Kalman Filter (EKF) algorithm to model the COVID-19 dynamics. Our results show the feasibility of utilizing this model for predicting the spread of the virus and the ability of different control measures (e.g., social distancing) on reducing the number of affected people.

scholarly journals SARS-CoV-2: A critical review of preventive and control measures in the context of the virus’ characteristics

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-39
Author(s):  
Manca Alič ◽  
Andrej Ovca
Keyword(s):  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Cleaning And Disinfection ◽  
And Control

Abstract The year 2020 has been marked by the novel coronavirus, named Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes coronavirus disease COVID-19. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a global pandemic on the 11th of March 2020 due to the spread of this very contagious virus throughout the world. Since the outbreak, we have gained many insights about the virus, its presence and persistence in the environment and its possible and most common transmission routes. Such knowledge about the virus is invaluable for establishing effective preventive and control measures (also referred to as Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs)) that have become a key to tackling this pandemic in the absence of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. In this review, we discuss five main groups of NPIs: 1) ventilation, 2) cleaning and disinfection, 3) hand hygiene, 4) physical distancing, and 5) protective masks. We explore their shortcomings and potential negative consequences that might occur as unwanted side effects.

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