scholarly journals Forecast the Supply of General Practitioners in Shanghai: Using an Agent-based Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiejie Cheng ◽  
Yong Yang ◽  
Qingyang Zhang ◽  
Guangpeng Zhang ◽  
Mei Sun
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Medical Students ◽  
General Practitioners ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Working Life ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Comprehensive Intervention

Abstract BackgroundGeneral practitioners (GPs), as one important human resource for health, is facing a supply shortage in China. The diversity of individual decision-making behaviors of GPs and medical students increases the difficulty of supply forecasting. Agent-based simulation, as a bottom-up approach, has the potential to address this challenge.MethodsAn agent-based model was developed to forecast the supply of GPs in Shanghai, China. Based on the theory of working life cycle, we analyzed the life cycle of GPs and developed the framework. Publicly available data were used to parameterize the model. Several scenarios were conducted to test hypotheses and examine intervention stratigies. NetLogo 6.1.0 was used for model implemtation. ResultsThe model was run over a nearly 20-year time span from 2016 to 2035 in Shanghai. Simulated results showed that GPs in Shanghai will rise from 8,000 to 15,375 during this period. Sensitivity analysis showed that parameters of the health system had a greater impact on the results than those of the education system. ConclusionsReliable forecasting of the supply and demand is a prerequisite for solving the shortage of GPs. Comprehensive intervention strategies are needed to address the supply shortage. For example, as indiciated by our study, regions should increase their attractiveness to GPs and retain them more effectively, instead of just increasing the number of medical students enrolled.

scholarly journals Evaluating intervention strategies in controlling coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread in care homes: An agent-based model – CORRIGENDUM

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Le Khanh Ngan Nguyen ◽  
Susan Howick ◽  
Dennis McLafferty ◽  
Gillian H. Anderson ◽  
Sahaya J. Pravinkumar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Care Homes ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based

An Agent-Based Model to Forecast the Inflation Rate in the Eurozone

2017 ◽  
pp. 72-92
Author(s):  
Juan Luis Santos ◽  
Jagoda Anna Kaszowska ◽  
Tomás Mancha Navarro
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Single Agent ◽  
Market Equilibrium ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Inflation Rates

The aim of the agent-based model presented in this chapter is to explain the determinants of inflation and to forecast the inflation rate in the Eurozone for the next five years. The behaviors of agents and their expectations are interrelated and explained by macroeconomic models applied to heterogeneous agents of three classes: individuals, companies and financial institutions. In addition, the behavior of public sector and central bank is also modeled with a single agent of each kind. Once the quantitative easing policy is implemented, the quantitative theory of money expects higher inflation rates in the long run. Inflation should remain low taking into account the Phillips-Curve. Last, according to the Aggregated Supply and Demand as well as to the Money Market equilibrium, the behaviors modeled allow forecasting low inflation. However, an external shock, as it would be an increase in the price of important commodities, can alter the inflation rate to a great extent.

scholarly journals A Spatial Agent-Based Model to Assess the Spread of Malaria in Relation to Anti-Malaria Interventions in Southeast Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 549
Author(s):  
Navid Mahdizadeh Gharakhanlou ◽  
Navid Hooshangi ◽  
Marco Helbich
Keyword(s):  
Indoor Residual Spraying ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Malaria Endemic Area ◽  
High Coverage ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The World ◽  
Coverage Rates ◽  
Long Lasting Insecticidal Nets ◽  
Malaria Interventions

Malaria threatens the lives of many people throughout the world. To counteract its spread, knowledge of the prevalence of malaria and the effectiveness of intervention strategies is of great importance. The aim of this study was to assess (1) the spread of malaria by means of a spatial agent-based model (ABM) and (2) the effectiveness of several interventions in controlling the spread of malaria. We focused on Sarbaz county in Iran, a malaria-endemic area where the prevalence rate is high. Our ABM, which was carried out in two steps, considers humans and mosquitoes along with their attributes and behaviors as agents, while the environment is made up of diverse environmental factors, namely air temperature, relative humidity, vegetation, altitude, distance from rivers and reservoirs, and population density, the first three of which change over time. As control interventions, we included long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). The simulation results showed that applying LLINs and IRS in combination, rather than separately, was most efficient in reducing the number of infected humans. In addition, LLINs and IRS with moderate or high and high coverage rates, respectively, had significant effects on reducing the number of infected humans when applied separately. Our results can assist health policymakers in selecting appropriate intervention strategies in Iran to reduce malaria transmission.

scholarly journals Lockdowns to Contain COVID-19 Increase Risk and Severity of Mosquito-Borne Disease Outbreaks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akshay Jindal ◽  
Shrisha Rao
Keyword(s):  
Indoor Residual Spraying ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Communicable Diseases ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Insecticide Treated Nets ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
The Impact

AbstractMany countries are implementing lockdown measures to slow the COVID-19 pandemic, putting more than a third of the world’s population under restrictions. The scale of such lockdowns is unprecedented, and while some effects of lockdowns are readily apparent, it is less clear what effects they may have on outbreaks of serious communicable diseases. We examine the impact of these lockdowns on outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases. Using an agent-based model and simulations, we find that the risk and severity of such outbreaks is much greater under lockdown conditions, with the number of infected people doubling in some cases. This increase in number of cases varies by different mosquito-borne diseases, and is significantly higher for diseases spread by day-biting mosquitoes. We analysed various intervention strategies and found that during lockdowns, decentralised strategies such as insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying are more effective than centralised strategies.

An agent-based model approach to multi-phase life-cycle for contact inhibited, anchorage dependent cells

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 312-322
Author(s):  
Ross. D. Hoehn ◽  
Ashley. M. Schreder ◽  
Mohammed Fayez Al Rez ◽  
Sabre Kais
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Multi Phase ◽  
Model Approach

scholarly journals Lockdowns to Contain COVID-19 Increase Risk and Severity of Mosquito-Borne Disease Outbreaks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akshay Jindal ◽  
Shrisha Rao
Keyword(s):  
Indoor Residual Spraying ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Insecticide Treated Nets ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Many countries are implementing lockdown measures to slow the COVID-19 pandemic, putting more than a third of the world’s population under restrictions. The scale of such lockdowns is unprecedented, and while some effects of lockdowns are readily apparent, it is less clear what effects they may have on outbreaks of serious communica-ble diseases. We examine the impact of these lockdowns on outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases. Using an agent-based model and simu-lations, we find that the risk and severity of such outbreaks is much greater under lockdown conditions, with the number of infected people doubling in some cases. This increase in number of cases varies by dif- ferent mosquito-borne diseases, and is significantly higher for diseases spread by day-biting mosquitoes. We analysed various intervention strategies and found that during lockdowns, decentralised strategies such as insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying are more effective than centralised strategies.

scholarly journals Modelling interventions to control COVID-19 outbreaks in a refugee camp

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
R Tucker Gilman ◽  
Siyana Mahroof-Shaffi ◽  
Christian Harkensee ◽  
Andrew T Chamberlain
Keyword(s):  
Refugee Camp ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Refugee Camps ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Medical Facilities ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Planning Intervention

Refugee camp populations are expected to be vulnerable to COVID-19 due to overcrowding, unsanitary conditions, and inadequate medical facilities. Because there has been no COVID-19 outbreak in a refugee camp to date, the potential for nonpharmaceutical interventions to slow the spread of COVID-19 in refugee camps remains untested. We used an agent-based model to simulate COVID-19 outbreaks in the Moria refugee camp, and we studied the effects of feasible interventions. Subdividing the camp ('sectoring') "flattened the curve," reducing peak infection by up to 70% and delaying peak infection by up to several months. The use of face masks coupled with efficient isolation of infected individuals reduced the overall incidence of infection and sometimes averted epidemics altogether. These interventions must be implemented quickly to be effective. Lockdowns had little effect on COVID-19 dynamics. Our findings provide an evidence base for camp managers planning intervention strategies against COVID-19 or future epidemics.

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