scholarly journals A Spatial Agent-Based Model to Assess the Spread of Malaria in Relation to Anti-Malaria Interventions in Southeast Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 549
Author(s):  
Navid Mahdizadeh Gharakhanlou ◽  
Navid Hooshangi ◽  
Marco Helbich
Keyword(s):  
Indoor Residual Spraying ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Malaria Endemic Area ◽  
High Coverage ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The World ◽  
Coverage Rates ◽  
Long Lasting Insecticidal Nets ◽  
Malaria Interventions

Malaria threatens the lives of many people throughout the world. To counteract its spread, knowledge of the prevalence of malaria and the effectiveness of intervention strategies is of great importance. The aim of this study was to assess (1) the spread of malaria by means of a spatial agent-based model (ABM) and (2) the effectiveness of several interventions in controlling the spread of malaria. We focused on Sarbaz county in Iran, a malaria-endemic area where the prevalence rate is high. Our ABM, which was carried out in two steps, considers humans and mosquitoes along with their attributes and behaviors as agents, while the environment is made up of diverse environmental factors, namely air temperature, relative humidity, vegetation, altitude, distance from rivers and reservoirs, and population density, the first three of which change over time. As control interventions, we included long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). The simulation results showed that applying LLINs and IRS in combination, rather than separately, was most efficient in reducing the number of infected humans. In addition, LLINs and IRS with moderate or high and high coverage rates, respectively, had significant effects on reducing the number of infected humans when applied separately. Our results can assist health policymakers in selecting appropriate intervention strategies in Iran to reduce malaria transmission.

scholarly journals Lockdowns to Contain COVID-19 Increase Risk and Severity of Mosquito-Borne Disease Outbreaks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akshay Jindal ◽  
Shrisha Rao
Keyword(s):  
Indoor Residual Spraying ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Communicable Diseases ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Insecticide Treated Nets ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
The Impact

AbstractMany countries are implementing lockdown measures to slow the COVID-19 pandemic, putting more than a third of the world’s population under restrictions. The scale of such lockdowns is unprecedented, and while some effects of lockdowns are readily apparent, it is less clear what effects they may have on outbreaks of serious communicable diseases. We examine the impact of these lockdowns on outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases. Using an agent-based model and simulations, we find that the risk and severity of such outbreaks is much greater under lockdown conditions, with the number of infected people doubling in some cases. This increase in number of cases varies by different mosquito-borne diseases, and is significantly higher for diseases spread by day-biting mosquitoes. We analysed various intervention strategies and found that during lockdowns, decentralised strategies such as insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying are more effective than centralised strategies.

scholarly journals Lockdowns to Contain COVID-19 Increase Risk and Severity of Mosquito-Borne Disease Outbreaks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akshay Jindal ◽  
Shrisha Rao
Keyword(s):  
Indoor Residual Spraying ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Insecticide Treated Nets ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Increase Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Many countries are implementing lockdown measures to slow the COVID-19 pandemic, putting more than a third of the world’s population under restrictions. The scale of such lockdowns is unprecedented, and while some effects of lockdowns are readily apparent, it is less clear what effects they may have on outbreaks of serious communica-ble diseases. We examine the impact of these lockdowns on outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases. Using an agent-based model and simu-lations, we find that the risk and severity of such outbreaks is much greater under lockdown conditions, with the number of infected people doubling in some cases. This increase in number of cases varies by dif- ferent mosquito-borne diseases, and is significantly higher for diseases spread by day-biting mosquitoes. We analysed various intervention strategies and found that during lockdowns, decentralised strategies such as insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying are more effective than centralised strategies.

scholarly journals Simulation Agent-Based Model to Demonstrate the Transmission of COVID-19 and Effectiveness of Different Public Health Strategies

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yixing Wang ◽  
Hainan Xiong ◽  
Sijie Liu ◽  
Ara Jung ◽  
Trish Stone ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Real World ◽  
General Public ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Real ◽  
The World ◽  
Public Health Strategies ◽  
Health Experts

COVID-19 has changed the world fundamentally since its outbreak in January 2020. Public health experts and administrations around the world suggested and implemented various intervention strategies to slow down the transmission of the virus. To illustrate to the general public how the virus is transmitted and how different intervention strategies can check the transmission, we built an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the transmission of the virus in the real world and demonstrate how to prevent its spread with public health strategies.

scholarly journals Evaluating intervention strategies in controlling coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread in care homes: An agent-based model – CORRIGENDUM

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Le Khanh Ngan Nguyen ◽  
Susan Howick ◽  
Dennis McLafferty ◽  
Gillian H. Anderson ◽  
Sahaya J. Pravinkumar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Care Homes ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based

scholarly journals Modelling interventions to control COVID-19 outbreaks in a refugee camp

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
R Tucker Gilman ◽  
Siyana Mahroof-Shaffi ◽  
Christian Harkensee ◽  
Andrew T Chamberlain
Keyword(s):  
Refugee Camp ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Refugee Camps ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Medical Facilities ◽  
Nonpharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Planning Intervention

Refugee camp populations are expected to be vulnerable to COVID-19 due to overcrowding, unsanitary conditions, and inadequate medical facilities. Because there has been no COVID-19 outbreak in a refugee camp to date, the potential for nonpharmaceutical interventions to slow the spread of COVID-19 in refugee camps remains untested. We used an agent-based model to simulate COVID-19 outbreaks in the Moria refugee camp, and we studied the effects of feasible interventions. Subdividing the camp ('sectoring') "flattened the curve," reducing peak infection by up to 70% and delaying peak infection by up to several months. The use of face masks coupled with efficient isolation of infected individuals reduced the overall incidence of infection and sometimes averted epidemics altogether. These interventions must be implemented quickly to be effective. Lockdowns had little effect on COVID-19 dynamics. Our findings provide an evidence base for camp managers planning intervention strategies against COVID-19 or future epidemics.

scholarly journals Evaluating intervention strategies in controlling COVID-19 spread in care homes: An agent-based model

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-60
Author(s):  
Le Khanh Ngan Nguyen ◽  
Susan Howick ◽  
Dennis McLafferty ◽  
Gillian Hopkins Anderson ◽  
Sahaya Josephine Pravinkumar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Care Home ◽  
Transmission Probability ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Care Homes ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Home Setting ◽  
Routine Testing ◽  
Agent Based

ABSTRACT Background: Care homes are vulnerable to widespread transmission of COVID-19 with poor outcomes for staff and residents. Infection control interventions in care homes need to not only be effective in containing the spread of COVID-19 but also feasible to implement in this special setting which is both a healthcare institution and a home. Methods: We developed an agent-based model that simulates the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 via contacts between individuals, including residents, staff members, and visitors in a care home setting. We explored a representative care home in Scotland in our base case and explore other care home setups in an uncertainty analysis. We evaluated the effectiveness of a range of intervention strategies in controlling the spread of COVID-19. Results: In the presence of the reference interventions that have been implemented in many care homes, including testing of new admissions, isolation of symptomatic residents, and restricted public visiting, routine testing of staff appears to be the most effective and practical approach. Routine testing of residents is no more effective as a reference strategy while routine testing of both staff and residents only shows a negligible additive effect. Modelling results are very sensitive to transmission probability per contact, but the qualitative finding is robust to varying parameter values in our uncertainty analysis. Conclusions: Our model predictions suggest that routine testing should target staff in care homes in conjunction with adherence to strict hand hygiene and using personal protective equipment to reduce risk of transmission per contact.

scholarly journals Investigating the Random Seat Boarding Method without Seat Assignments with Common Boarding Practices Using an Agent-Based Modeling

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4623 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camelia Delcea ◽  
Liviu-Adrian Cotfas ◽  
Mostafa Salari ◽  
R. Milne
Keyword(s):  
Human Subjects ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
The Other ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Real ◽  
The World

Research related to creating new and improved airplane boarding methods has seen continuous advancement, in recent years, while most of the airline companies have remained committed to the traditional boarding methods. Among the most-used boarding methods, around the world, are back-to-front and random boarding with and without assigned seats. While the other boarding methods used in practice possess strict rules for passengers’ behavior, random without assigned seats is dependent on the passengers own way of choosing the “best” seats. The aim of this paper is to meticulously model the passengers’ behavior, especially, in random boarding without assigned seats and to test its efficiency in terms of boarding time and interferences, in comparison with the other commonly-adopted methods (random boarding with assigned seats, window-middle-aisle (WilMA), back-to-front, reverse pyramid, etc.). One of the main challenges in our endeavor was the identification of the real human passengers’ way of reasoning, when selecting their seats, and creating a model in which the agents possess preferences and make decisions, as close to those decisions made by the human passengers, as possible. We model their choices based on completed questionnaires from three hundred and eighty-seven human subjects. This paper describes the resulting agent-based model and results from the simulations.

scholarly journals High Vaccine Coverage is Crucial for Preventing the Spread of Infectious Diseases During Mass Gathering

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susu Zughaier
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Coverage Rate ◽  
Mass Gathering ◽  
World Cup ◽  
High Coverage ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
The World ◽  
Coverage Rates

Background: Vaccines are the most cost-effective intervention in public health as they prevent the spread of highly contagious infectious diseases. Because of vaccine implementation and high coverage, Measles was eradicated in 2000, however the recent reappearance of measles in the United States, Europe and globally is alarming. The resurgence of Measles, Diphtheria and Mumps is due to a reduction in vaccine coverage and herd immunity. Vaccine hesitant parents, antivaxxers, and fake news on vaccines are driving the surge in those infectious diseases. The World Health Organization issued the Global Vaccine and Immunization Action Plan to reiterate the importance of vaccine implementation and coverage for several vaccine-preventable infectious diseases in the world. Qatar is preparing for the upcoming FIFA World Cup 2022 therefore maintaining high vaccine coverage, which is critical in preventing infectious diseases spreading during such mass gathering. Methods: Literature search for vaccine coverage rates, resurgence of vaccine preventable infectious diseases and risks of mass gatherings. Results: Seventeen infectious diseases are currently vaccine-preventable. The cost-effectiveness of vaccine is documented as it is estimated for each dollar spent on vaccines, 10 dollars are saved in disease treatment. A drop in vaccine coverage rates to under 90% lead to the resurgence of measles. Vaccine coverage rate in Qatar is currently at 95% which is one of the highest in the world. Qatar must maintain this high coverage rate to prevent any measles outbreaks during mass gatherings. The planned World Cup event will take place from November 21 till December 18 2022, which is the peak for seasonal influenza. In preparedness for this major event, Qatar should encourage residents and visitors to be vaccinated not just against measles and seasonal influenza, but also hepatitis and meningitis. Conclusion: Maintaining 95% vaccine coverage rate is critical for preventing the resurgence of vaccine-preventable infectious diseases during the World Cup mass gathering in Qatar.

scholarly journals Forecast the Supply of General Practitioners in Shanghai: Using an Agent-based Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiejie Cheng ◽  
Yong Yang ◽  
Qingyang Zhang ◽  
Guangpeng Zhang ◽  
Mei Sun
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Medical Students ◽  
General Practitioners ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Working Life ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Comprehensive Intervention

Abstract BackgroundGeneral practitioners (GPs), as one important human resource for health, is facing a supply shortage in China. The diversity of individual decision-making behaviors of GPs and medical students increases the difficulty of supply forecasting. Agent-based simulation, as a bottom-up approach, has the potential to address this challenge.MethodsAn agent-based model was developed to forecast the supply of GPs in Shanghai, China. Based on the theory of working life cycle, we analyzed the life cycle of GPs and developed the framework. Publicly available data were used to parameterize the model. Several scenarios were conducted to test hypotheses and examine intervention stratigies. NetLogo 6.1.0 was used for model implemtation. ResultsThe model was run over a nearly 20-year time span from 2016 to 2035 in Shanghai. Simulated results showed that GPs in Shanghai will rise from 8,000 to 15,375 during this period. Sensitivity analysis showed that parameters of the health system had a greater impact on the results than those of the education system. ConclusionsReliable forecasting of the supply and demand is a prerequisite for solving the shortage of GPs. Comprehensive intervention strategies are needed to address the supply shortage. For example, as indiciated by our study, regions should increase their attractiveness to GPs and retain them more effectively, instead of just increasing the number of medical students enrolled.

scholarly journals Validation of a spatial agent-based model for Taenia solium transmission (“CystiAgent”) against a large prospective trial of control strategies in northern Peru

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. e0009885
Author(s):  
Ian W. Pray ◽  
Francesco Pizzitutti ◽  
Gabrielle Bonnet ◽  
Eloy Gonzalez-Gustavson ◽  
Wayne Wakeland ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Taenia Solium ◽  
Prospective Trial ◽  
World Health ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Targeted Interventions ◽  
Porcine Cysticercosis ◽  
The World ◽  
Northern Peru

Background The pork tapeworm (Taenia solium) is a parasitic helminth that imposes a major health and economic burden on poor rural populations around the world. As recognized by the World Health Organization, a key barrier for achieving control of T. solium is the lack of an accurate and validated simulation model with which to study transmission and evaluate available control and elimination strategies. CystiAgent is a spatially-explicit agent based model for T. solium that is unique among T. solium models in its ability to represent key spatial and environmental features of transmission and simulate spatially targeted interventions, such as ring strategy. Methods/Principal findings We validated CystiAgent against results from the Ring Strategy Trial (RST)–a large cluster-randomized trial conducted in northern Peru that evaluated six unique interventions for T. solium control in 23 villages. For the validation, each intervention strategy was replicated in CystiAgent, and the simulated prevalences of human taeniasis, porcine cysticercosis, and porcine seroincidence were compared against prevalence estimates from the trial. Results showed that CystiAgent produced declines in transmission in response to each of the six intervention strategies, but overestimated the effect of interventions in the majority of villages; simulated prevalences for human taenasis and porcine cysticercosis at the end of the trial were a median of 0.53 and 5.0 percentages points less than prevalence observed at the end of the trial, respectively. Conclusions/Significance The validation of CystiAgent represented an important step towards developing an accurate and reliable T. solium transmission model that can be deployed to fill critical gaps in our understanding of T. solium transmission and control. To improve model accuracy, future versions would benefit from improved data on pig immunity and resistance, field effectiveness of anti-helminthic treatment, and factors driving spatial clustering of T. solium infections including dispersion and contact with T. solium eggs in the environment.

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