Evaluating Elimination Thresholds and Stopping Criteria for Interventions Against the Vector-borne Macroparasitic Disease, Lymphatic Filariasis, Using Mathematical Modelling
Abstract We leverage the ability of the EPIFIL transmission model fit to field data for allowing calculations of the probabilities of transmission elimination and recrudescence once infection levels are predicted to fall below the threshold used in the WHO Transmission Assessment Surveys (TAS) versus site-specific model-estimated thresholds to evaluate the implications of using these thresholds for making Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) intervention stopping decisions. Our results, overall, indicate that understanding the underlying parasite transmission and extinction dynamics will be crucial for choosing the right intervention stopping thresholds, and indeed the right interventions connected with these thresholds, if we are to bring about the sustainable elimination of LF. They also warn that applying stopping criteria set for operational purposes without a full consideration of population dynamics, as employed in the current TAS strategy, could, by risking infection recrudescence especially over the long-term, seriously undermine the goal of achieving global LF elimination.