Analyzing Two-Sided Incomplete Information Simultaneous and Sequential Games with Bayesian Equilibrium by Iterative Conjectures Approach

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jimmy Teng
2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierpaolo Battigalli ◽  
Marciano Siniscalchi

We analyze a family of extensive-form solution procedures for games with incomplete information that do not require the specification of an epistemic type space a la Harsanyi, but can accommodate a (commonly known) collection of explicit restrictions D on first-order beliefs. For any fixed D we obtain a solution called D-rationalizability.In static games, D-rationalizability characterizes the set of outcomes (combinations of payoff types and strategies) that may occur in any Bayesian equilibrium model consistent with D; these are precisely the outcomes consistent with common certainty of rationality and of the restrictions D. Hence, our approach to the analysis of incomplete-information games is consistent with Harsanyi's, and it may be viewed as capturing the robust implications of Bayesian equilibrium analysis.In dynamic games, D-rationalizability yields a forward-induction refinement of this set of Bayesian equilibrium outcomes. Focusing on the restriction that first-order beliefs be consistent with a given distribution on terminal nodes, we obtain a refinement of self-confirming equilibrium. In signalling games, this refinement coincides with the Iterated Intuitive Criterion.


2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarun Kabiraj ◽  
Uday Bhanu Sinha

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show that outsourcing can occur as outcome of a separating or pooling perfect Bayesian equilibrium although it is not profitable under complete information. Therefore, asymmetric information can itself be a reason for outsourcing. Design/methodology/approach The present paper constructs a model of two firms interacting in the product market under asymmetric information where one firm has private information about its technological capability, and it has the option to produce inputs in-house or buy inputs from an input market. However, using outsourced inputs involves a fixed cost at the plant level. The model solves for perfect Bayesian equilibrium. Findings There are situations when under complete information, outsourcing of the input will not occur, but, under incomplete information, either only the low-cost type or both high and low-cost types will go for outsourcing, and there always exist reasonable beliefs supporting these equilibria. In particular, when the fixed cost is neither too small not too large, a separating equilibrium occurs in which the low-cost type outsources inputs from the input market but the high-cost type produces in-house; hence, outsourcing signals the firm’s type. Outsourcing by only the high-cost type firm will never occur in equilibrium. Originality/value That incomplete or asymmetric information can itself be a reason for strategic outsourcing is never identified in the literature. The present paper is an attempt to fill this gap and raise the issue of outsourcing in an incomplete information environment.


2010 ◽  
Vol 113-116 ◽  
pp. 1336-1341
Author(s):  
Xiao Pu ◽  
Bi Zhe Wang ◽  
Yi Ting Chen ◽  
Hong Guang Cheng

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) system has gradually developed in China while several problems still exist in the ecological environment protection implementation as the obstacles. This paper summarized the regular EIA process of China and picked up the stakeholders basis of case analyzing. A multi-stage and dynamic incomplete information game model was established to investigate the interactions among government, enterprises and EIA organizations and explain strategy selection of EIA participants according to perfect Bayesian equilibrium theory and scenario analysis. Furthermore, a suggestion was proposed to improve effectiveness of EIA system in China after discussing the present demerit. Results showed that in a short term, government and enterprises tended to choose evading EIA for their private benefits. But in a long run, they would be willing to take EIA because environmental deterioration would seriously affect their economic benefits. Thus they had to pursuit social benefits firstly instead. The public played a silent role as a victim in EIA system of China currently, caused by present beneficial balance of government, enterprises and EIA organizations. Some countermeasures must be brought out to develop the public participation regulation in the management system in order to break that balance and improve the effectiveness of EIA.


2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomasz Sadzik

Abstract Bayesian game theory investigates strategic interaction of players with full awareness but incomplete information about their environment. We extend the analysis to players with incomplete awareness, who might not be able to reason about all contingencies in the first place. We develop three logical systems for knowledge, probabilistic beliefs and awareness, and characterize their axiom systems. Bayesian equilibrium is extended to games with incomplete awareness and we show that it is consistent with common prior and speculative trade, when common knowledge of rationality is violated.


Author(s):  
Frank C. Zagare

This chapter explores a number of issues connected with the use of game-theoretic models to organize analytic narratives. First, a causal explanation of the 1936 Rhineland crisis is developed within the confines of a game-theoretic model of asymmetric or unilateral deterrence with incomplete information. In this context, the chapter then introduces the concept of a perfect Bayesian equilibrium. Then, some methodological obstacles that may arise in a more complex case, such as the 1879 Austro-German alliance, are discussed, and suggestions for overcoming them are offered. Finally, the advantages of using game models to more fully understand real world events are highlighted.


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