New Digital Technologies and Heterogeneous Employment and Wage Dynamics in the United States: Evidence from Individual-Level Data

Abstract Routine-biased technological change has emerged as the dominant explanation for the differential earnings growth of occupations at greater risk of automation, such as machine operators or office clerks, relative to less routine occupations. In contrast, this paper finds that the declining earnings returns to an occupation’s routine task intensity (RTI) can largely be attributed to the decline of organized labor. Using individual-level data on 3.3 million employed adults across the United States from 1983 to 2017, this paper finds that organized labor has two countervailing effects on occupations at greater risk of automation. First, higher union coverage within a state and industry inhibits the decline in earnings returns to an occupation’s RTI. Second, higher union coverage hastens the decline in employment shares of occupations with higher RTI. The result is that occupations at greater risk of automation experience more favorable earnings growth where unions are more resilient, but at the cost of accelerated declines in their employment shares. Counterfactual analyses demonstrate that if union coverage in the United States had remained stable at 1983 levels, the earnings returns to an occupation’s RTI might not have declined from 1983 to 2017, and the observed pattern of occupational earnings polarization in the 1990s might not have occurred. However, the mean RTI of occupations might have declined by an additional 21 percent from 1983 to 2017 relative to the observed decline. The findings suggest that the social consequences of automation are conditional on the strength of organized labor.

On the Issues Surrounding Economic Voting

Comparative Political Studies ◽

10.1177/0010414087020001001 ◽

1987 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

pp. 3-33 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

JOHN R. HIBBING

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

United Kingdom ◽

Voting Behavior ◽

Economic Voting ◽

The United States ◽

Individual Level ◽

The United Kingdom ◽

Level Data ◽

Election Results ◽

The Individual

This is an analysis of the effects of economic factors on voting behavior in the United Kingdom. Aggregate- and individual-level data are used. When the results are compared to findings generated by the United States case, some intriguing differences appear. To mention just two examples, unemployment and inflation seem to be much more important in the United Kingdom than in the United States, and changes in real per capita income are positively related to election results in the United States and negatively related in the United Kingdom. More generally, while the aggregate results are strong and the individual-level results weak in the United States, in the United Kingdom the situation is practically reversed.

Wages, Hours, and Overtime Premia: Evidence from the British Labor Market

ILR Review ◽

10.1177/001979390305600306 ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 56 (3) ◽

pp. 470-480 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

David N. F. Bell ◽

Robert A. Hart

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Labor Market ◽

Wage Rate ◽

The United States ◽

Hourly Wage ◽

Individual Level ◽

Level Data ◽

Hourly Wage Rate ◽

Average Hourly Wage ◽

Wage Earnings

Unlike the United States, Britain has no national laws regulating overtime hour assignment or compensation. Using individual-level data on male non-managerial workers from the 1998 British New Earnings Survey, the authors investigate relationships among the standard hourly wage rate, hourly earnings (including overtime), the overtime premium, and the length of overtime hours. They find that when overtime is accounted for, average hourly wage earnings are fairly uniform across firms in a given industry, because firms paying below-market-level straight-time wages tend to award above-market-level overtime premiums, and, conversely, firms paying above-market-level straight-time wages provide below-market-level overtime premiums.

CREDIBLE COMMITMENTS AND MARRIAGE: WHEN THE HOMEMAKER GETS HER SHARE AT DIVORCE

Journal of Demographic Economics ◽

10.1017/dem.2016.9 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 82 (3) ◽

pp. 241-279 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Ho-Po Crystal Wong

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Property Rights ◽

Bargaining Power ◽

The United States ◽

Home Production ◽

Credible Commitments ◽

Individual Level ◽

Sequential Game ◽

Divorce Laws ◽

Level Data

Abstract:A variety of states in the United States have adopted the “homemaking provision” in their divorce laws since the 1980s. The provision requires judges to recognize homemakers’ contribution to their marriages in dividing marital properties at divorce. I model the marital decisions of couples as a sequential game, in which the potential wife’s decision in whether to marry and specialize in home production depends on whether she is legally protected by the homemaking provision, as the law would reinforce her post-divorce property rights and therefore increase her bargaining power within the marriage. I use the variation in the timing of the passage of the homemaking provision to identify its effect on marriage. I find that the provision substantially increases marriages using both state- and individual-level data.

Regional and Industrial Wage Dynamics in West Germany and the United States / Regionale und industrielle Lohndynamik in Westdeutschland und den USA

Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik ◽

10.1515/jbnst-2002-0505 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 222 (5) ◽

Author(s):

Antje Mertens

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Time Series Data ◽

The United States ◽

Labour Markets ◽

West Germany ◽

Series Data ◽

Labour Demand ◽

Wage Dynamics ◽

Demand Shocks ◽

Individual Level

SummaryIt is commonly known that every economy is faced with the problem of unevenly distributed labour demand changes across industries, occupations and regions. In competitive labour markets flexible wages and the mobility of labour would lead to a new equilibrium distribution of wages and employment. Regional or industrial unemployment dispersion in Germany is often blamed on a lack of wage adjustments and the lack of labour mobility when economic fortunes are not distributed evenly, but this hypothesis is hardly ever tested. This paper asks how wage reactions in Germany compare with responses in the United States using individual level data. As a first step labour demand shocks are estimated from employment time series data using deterministic detrending and the Hodrick-Prescott filter. These are then included in typical wage regressions based on micro data. The results propose that German labour markets are not as inflexible as simple evidence might suggest. Although wages are regionally only flexible in the United States, wages are found to react to industrial labour demand shocks in both countries. Especially for more experienced and therefore less mobile groups in the German labour market wages react to industrial labour demand shocks.

In search of opportunity and community: Internal migration of refugees in the United States

Science Advances ◽

10.1126/sciadv.abb0295 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 6 (32) ◽

pp. eabb0295

Author(s):

Nadwa Mossaad ◽

Jeremy Ferwerda ◽

Duncan Lawrence ◽

Jeremy Weinstein ◽

Jens Hainmueller

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Population Level ◽

The United States ◽

Retention Rates ◽

State Governments ◽

Individual Level ◽

Welfare Benefits ◽

Level Data ◽

Immigrant And Refugee ◽

National Networks

At a time of heightened anxiety surrounding immigration, state governments have increasingly sought to manage immigrant and refugee flows. Yet the factors that influence where immigrants choose to settle after arrival remain unclear. We bring evidence to this question by analyzing population-level data for refugees resettled within the United States. Unlike other immigrants, refugees are assigned to initial locations across the country but are free to relocate and select another residence after arrival. Drawing on individual-level administrative data for adult refugees resettled between 2000 and 2014 (N = 447,747), we examine the relative desirability of locations by examining how retention rates and patterns of secondary migration differ across states. We find no discernible evidence that refugees’ locational choices are strongly influenced by state partisanship or the generosity of welfare benefits. Instead, we find that refugees prioritize locations with employment opportunities and existing co-national networks.

Partisan Cues and Opinion Formation on Foreign Policy

American Politics Research ◽

10.1177/1532673x17745632 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 47 (1) ◽

pp. 29-57 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Amnon Cavari ◽

Guy Freedman

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Foreign Policy ◽

21St Century ◽

Regression Models ◽

Policy Issue ◽

The United States ◽

Opinion Formation ◽

Individual Level ◽

Level Data ◽

Foreign Policy Issue

How does the extension of party conflict to a foreign policy issue affect the ability of Americans to form an opinion about the issue? We test this using elite references and longitudinal public opinion data about the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, a salient foreign policy issue in the United States that is increasingly characterized by partisan divisions. Our findings demonstrate that since the turn of the 21st century, the availability and clarity of party cues have increased, as well as the share of Americans who hold an opinion about the issue. Applying regression models to individual-level data, we reveal that the extension of party conflict to this issue has made it easier for more Americans to form an opinion.

The Rise of the Commuter Student: Changing Patterns of College Attendance for Students Living at Home in the United States, 1960–1980

Teachers College Record ◽

10.1177/016146811111300506 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 113 (5) ◽

pp. 1031-1066

Author(s):

Dongbin Kim ◽

John L. Rury

Keyword(s):

Higher Education ◽

United States ◽

College Students ◽

State Level ◽

The United States ◽

Commuter Students ◽

Individual Level ◽

Level Data ◽

The Individual ◽

At Home

Background/Context American higher education witnessed rapid expansion between 1960 and 1980, as colleges and universities welcomed millions of new students. The proportion of 19- and 20-year-old students living in dormitories, rooming houses, or other group quarters fell from more than 40% to slightly less than a third. At the same time, the proportion of students in this age group living at home with one or two parents increased from about 35% to nearly 47%, becoming the largest segment of the entering collegiate population in terms of residential alternatives. While growing numbers of high school graduates each fall headed off to campus dormitories, even more enrolled in commuter institutions close to home, gaining their initial collegiate experience in circumstances that may not have differed very much from what they had experienced in secondary school. The increased numbers of commuter students, whether they attended two-year or four-year institutions, however, have received little attention from historians and other social scientists. Purpose/Objective/Research Question/Focus of Study This study focuses on students aged 19 and 20 who lived with parents and commuted from home during the years from 1960 to 1980, when commuters became the largest category of beginning college students. It also addresses the question of how this large-scale change affected the social and economic profile of commuter students in the United States. In this regard, this study can be considered an evaluation of policy decisions intended to widen access to postsecondary institutions. Did the growing number of students living at home represent a democratic impulse in higher education, a widening of access to include groups of students who had previously been excluded from college? The study approaches this question by examining changes in the characteristics and behavior of commuter students across the country. Recognizing the variation in enrollment rates and other educational indices by state or region, this study also focuses on how the individual behavior at the point of college entry is affected by these and other characteristics of the larger social setting, particularly from a historical perspective. Research Design To grasp the larger picture of historical trends in college enrollment during the period of study, particularly in the growth of commuter students, the first part of the study utilizes state-level data and identifies changes in the number of entering college students who were commuters. In the process, descriptive statistics and ordinary least squares regression are used to identify factors associated with the proportion of college students living with their parents across states. In the second stage of analysis, hierarchical generalized linear modeling, utilizing both state- and individual-level data, is used to consider different layers of contextual effects on individual decisions to enroll in college. Data Collection and Analysis At the individual level, the principal sources of information are from 1% Integrated Public Use Microdata Samples (IPUMS) for 1960 and 1980. These are individual-level census data that permit consideration of a wide range of variables, including college enrollment. State-level variables are drawn from the published decennial census volumes, from National Center for Education Statistics reports on the number of higher education institutions, and from aggregated IPUMS data. Conclusions/Recommendations This study finds that commuter students in the United States appear to have benefited from greater institutional availability, the decline of manufacturing, continued urbanization, and a general expansion of the middle class that occurred across the period in question. It was a time of growth for this sector of the collegiate population. Despite rhetoric about wider access to postsecondary education during the period, however, the nation's colleges appear to have continued to serve a relatively affluent population, even in commuter institutions. Although making postsecondary institutions accessible to commuter students may have improved access in some circumstances, for most American youth, going to college appears to have remained a solidly middle- and upper-class phenomenon.

Indigenous Places and the Making of Undocumented Status in Mexico-US Migration

International Migration Review ◽

10.1177/0197918318801059 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 53 (4) ◽

pp. 1032-1077 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Asad L. Asad ◽

Jackelyn Hwang

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Multilevel Models ◽

The United States ◽

Social Resources ◽

Mexican Migration ◽

Individual Level ◽

Level Data ◽

Undocumented Status ◽

Primary Dimension ◽

Place Stratification

The uneven distribution of economic and social resources across communities often falls along ethno-racial dimensions. Few demographers have considered whether such axes of place stratification in a migrant-sending country relate to individuals’ access to economic and social resources in a migrant-receiving country. Taking Mexico-US migration flows as our focus, we examine if having origins in an indigenous place, a primary axis of stratification in Mexico, is associated with migrants’ documentation status when crossing the border, a primary dimension of stratification in the United States. We rely on individual-level data from the Mexican Migration Project merged with municipal-level data from the Mexican Census. Using multilevel models, we find that migrants from communities in indigenous municipalities in Mexico are more likely to migrate undocumented than documented to the United States compared with those from communities in non-indigenous municipalities, net of the economic and social resources identified in prior work as useful for international movement. We discuss why indigenous places — marked by a set of correlated conditions of economic and social disadvantage — disproportionately channel migrants into an undocumented status. This study contributes to understandings of stratification processes in cross-border contexts and has implications for the production of inequality in the United States.