Deskilling Of Lawyers Due To AI Is Not A Foregone Conclusion

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lance Eliot
Keyword(s):  
Foregone Conclusion

scholarly journals A Critical Evaluation of the FBST ev for Bayesian Hypothesis Testing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Ly ◽  
Eric-Jan Wagenmakers
Keyword(s):  
Hypothesis Testing ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Alternative Hypothesis ◽  
Critical Evaluation ◽  
Significance Test ◽  
Bayesian Hypothesis Testing ◽  
Absence Of Evidence ◽  
Evidence Of Absence ◽  
Foregone Conclusion

AbstractThe “Full Bayesian Significance Test e-value”, henceforth FBST ev, has received increasing attention across a range of disciplines including psychology. We show that the FBST ev leads to four problems: (1) the FBST ev cannot quantify evidence in favor of a null hypothesis and therefore also cannot discriminate “evidence of absence” from “absence of evidence”; (2) the FBST ev is susceptible to sampling to a foregone conclusion; (3) the FBST ev violates the principle of predictive irrelevance, such that it is affected by data that are equally likely to occur under the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis; (4) the FBST ev suffers from the Jeffreys-Lindley paradox in that it does not include a correction for selection. These problems also plague the frequentist p-value. We conclude that although the FBST ev may be an improvement over the p-value, it does not provide a reasonable measure of evidence against the null hypothesis.

Irenism and Natural Philosophy in Rudolfine Prague: The Case of David Gans

1997 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 627-649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noah J. Efron
Keyword(s):  
Seventeenth Century ◽  
Early Modern ◽  
Natural Philosophy ◽  
Central European ◽  
Foregone Conclusion

The ArgumentDavid Gans (1541–1613), a German Jew who was educated in Poland and spent his adulthood in Prague, produced over his lifetime a large and unprecedented corpus of Hebrew introductions to various liberal disciplines, chiefly astronomy. Gans believed that the disciplines he described might help to mediate between Christians and Jews, by serving as a shared subject of study. He considered these subjects to be uniquely apt for shared study because they took them to be theologically neutral.Gans's hopes went unfulfilled, and most of his books remained unpublished and ignored. Still, his own firm belief in the plausibility of his project implies that it was not a foregone conclusion near the start of the seventeenth century that astronomy and other liberal disciplines would find no purchase among Central European Jews. It also suggests that the mutual alienation between intellectuals of different confessions that has been emphasized by some historians might have been less pronounced than is often imagined. Further, Gans's belief that these disciplines could encourage interdenominational discourse and respect, and his intimation that such beliefs were shared by Kepler and Brahé, suggest the intriguing possibility that natural philosophy was valued by at least some of its early modern practitioners as an irenic undertaking.

The Rise of the International Novel

PMLA ◽  
1962 ◽  
Vol 77 (3) ◽  
pp. 305-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christof Wegelin
Keyword(s):  
Edith Wharton ◽  
Foregone Conclusion

The american “international novel” derives its importance as a genre from a few outstanding practitioners—from the early Howells, above all from James and Edith Wharton. To say this is of course to suggest a definition which fits novels like A Foregone Conclusion, or The Ambassadors, or Madame de Treymes, the kind of definition Professor Cargill proposed recently in an article claiming the title of “The First International Novel” for James's The American. In such novels the conflict between different sets of manners and mores, “the mixture of manners,” as James called it in the preface to “Lady Barbarina,” is essential. Usually it leads to illumination, an illumination sometimes but not always shared by the hero. That depends on his intelligence and character.

Explaining the Paradox of Plebiscites

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 202-219
Author(s):  
Matt Qvortrup ◽  
Brendan O’Leary ◽  
Ronald Wintrobe
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Fractionalization ◽  
Autocratic Regimes ◽  
Foregone Conclusion

AbstractRecent referendums show that autocratic regimes consult voters even if the outcome is a foregone conclusion. They have been doing so with increasing frequency since Napoleon consulted French citizens in 1800. Why and when do dictatorial regimes hold referendums they are certain they will win? Analysing the 162 referendums held in autocratic and non-free states in the period 1800–2012, the article shows that referendums with a 99% yes-vote tend to occur in autocracies with high ethnic fractionalization and, in part, in sultanistic (tinpot or tyrannical) regimes, but generally not in communist (totalitarian) states. An explanation is proposed for this variation.

Beyond Benign Neglect: Washington and Latin America

2005 ◽  
Vol 104 (679) ◽  
pp. 58-63
Author(s):  
Arturo Valenzuela
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
The Past ◽  
Benign Neglect ◽  
Foregone Conclusion

Without clear and concerted engagement and a recognition that the consolidation of democracy in Latin America is far from a foregone conclusion, Washington will be unable to regain the momentum for progress lost over the past four years.

scholarly journals Is Obesity in Young People With Psychosis a Foregone Conclusion? Markedly Excessive Energy Intake Is Evident Soon After Antipsychotic Initiation

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott B. Teasdale ◽  
Philip B. Ward ◽  
Rebecca Jarman ◽  
Tammy Wade ◽  
Elisa Rossimel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Energy Intake ◽  
Foregone Conclusion ◽  
Excessive Energy Intake

Terrorism Prosecutions, Material Support, and Islamophobia

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 243-247
Author(s):  
Wadie E. Said
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Religious Affiliation ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Large Majority ◽  
Marginalized Populations ◽  
Terrorist Organizations ◽  
Material Support ◽  
Terrorist Activity ◽  
The Government ◽  
Foregone Conclusion

Abstract With Islamophobia rife and the government list of foreign terrorist organizations (FTOs) telling us who is a threat, marginalized populations are being targeted and can expect a hostile and negative prosecutorial outcome. The large majority of terrorism prosecutions center on material support charges, which by their very structure concentrate on FTOs that are largely Islamist in ideology. Attaching a terrorist taint to a population based on its religious affiliation generates a kind of self-perpetuating law enforcement bias and prosecutorial outcome. Such police state tactics and assumptions only assure the adverse results of insisting that an exceptional status applies to those accused of terrorist activity or support for it. That, in the government's eyes, those individuals stem from one of the major monotheistic faiths in large part, seems to be a foregone conclusion that continues to affect the law's development in largely negative ways.

Violence in the Dutch Patriot Revolution

1988 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne P. Te Brake
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Identity ◽  
Electoral Process ◽  
Old Regime ◽  
Municipal Politics ◽  
Town Council ◽  
Worship Service ◽  
William Iii ◽  
The City ◽  
The Town ◽  
Foregone Conclusion

In the small provincial cities of the eastern Netherlands, the annual election of magistrates and town councilors was perhaps the most important public ritualof the year under the old regime. The elaborate and often solemn ceremony symbolized ancient chartered liberties—even when results of the co-optative elections were a foregone conclusion—and thus served to reinforce the community's sense of corporate identity. In 1786, however, in the midst of astruggle for control of the city, the annual Petrikeur in Deventer got out of hand. The day started out normally enough with the traditional worship service in the Grote Kerk, but after the black-robed members of the town council had passed in procession across the square to the stadhuis, a group of dissident councilors, who called themselves Patriots and were implacably opposed to the influence of the stadhouder in municipal politics, attacked aportrait of Prince William III of Orange, the stadhouder who in 1675 first insinuated himself into the electoral process.

Representation and Power in International Organization: the Operational Constitution and its Critics

2009 ◽  
Vol 103 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob Katz Cogan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
World Bank ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Organization ◽  
Executive Directors ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Foregone Conclusion

In 2005, when James Wolfensohn announced that he would not seek a third term as president of the World Bank, few doubted that another United States national, the choice of the U.S. president, would take his place. Each of the previous eight presidents of the bank had been an American, dating back to the international financial institution's establishment in 1946,and despite private and public grousing by some over the Bush administration's eventual choice of Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz as Wolfensohn's successor, the appointment was never truly in jeopardy. When the bank's executive directors met to elect a new president, the vote was a foregone conclusion—not because the United States holds a majority of votes itself (it does not), but because a longstanding informal agreement between the United States and the bank's western European stakeholders prescribed that outcome.

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