Projected Changes in Fire Activity and Severity Feedback in the Spruce–Feather Moss Forest of Western Quebec, Canada

Twenty-first century droughts have not increasingly exacerbated fire season severity in the Brazilian Amazon

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-82158-8 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

R. Libonati ◽

J. M. C. Pereira ◽

C. C. Da Camara ◽

L. F. Peres ◽

D. Oom ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Forest Fires ◽

Brazilian Amazon ◽

First Century ◽

Fire Season ◽

Fire Intensity ◽

Amazon Forest ◽

Active Fire ◽

Fire Activity ◽

Twenty First Century ◽

In Fire

AbstractBiomass burning in the Brazilian Amazon is modulated by climate factors, such as droughts, and by human factors, such as deforestation, and land management activities. The increase in forest fires during drought years has led to the hypothesis that fire activity decoupled from deforestation during the twenty-first century. However, assessment of the hypothesis relied on an incorrect active fire dataset, which led to an underestimation of the decreasing trend in fire activity and to an inflated rank for year 2015 in terms of active fire counts. The recent correction of that database warrants a reassessment of the relationships between deforestation and fire. Contrasting with earlier findings, we show that the exacerbating effect of drought on fire season severity did not increase from 2003 to 2015 and that the record-breaking dry conditions of 2015 had the least impact on fire season of all twenty-first century severe droughts. Overall, our results for the same period used in the study that originated the fire-deforestation decoupling hypothesis (2003–2015) show that decoupling was clearly weaker than initially proposed. Extension of the study period up to 2019, and novel analysis of trends in fire types and fire intensity strengthened this conclusion. Therefore, the role of deforestation as a driver of fire activity in the region should not be underestimated and must be taken into account when implementing measures to protect the Amazon forest.

Geospatial analysis of Arctic fires in the MODIS era: 2003–2020

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16198 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Thomas Smith ◽

Jessica McCarty ◽

Merritt Turetsky ◽

Mark Parrington

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing ◽

Geospatial Analysis ◽

High Latitudes ◽

Peat Soils ◽

Remote Sensing Technology ◽

Sensing Technology ◽

Fire Activity ◽

Continuous Record ◽

In Fire ◽

Wildfire Regimes

<p>MODIS has provided an 18-year continuous record of global fire activity. Here we present a geospatial analysis of MODIS hotspots in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere from 2003 through to 2020. By combining the hotspot data with multiple land-cover datasets relating to vegetation cover, permafrost, and peat, we investigate boreal and tundra wildfire regimes, including an assessment of a significant northwards shift and increase in fire activity in 2019 and 2020. We focus on the distribution of hotspots on high latitude peatlands and permafrost and the associated difficulties in confirming residual smouldering compustion of peat soils using current remote sensing technology.</p>

Land-Cover Dependent Relationships between Fire and Soil Moisture

Fire ◽

10.3390/fire2040055 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2 (4) ◽

pp. 55 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Alexander J. Schaefer ◽

Brian I. Magi

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing ◽

Soil Moisture ◽

Land Cover ◽

Remote Sensing Data ◽

Sensing Data ◽

Fire Activity ◽

Steep Decline ◽

Human Use ◽

Moisture Conditions ◽

In Fire

For this study, we characterized the dependence of fire counts (FCs) on soil moisture (SM) at global and sub-global scales using 15 years of remote sensing data. We argue that this mathematical relationship serves as an effective way to predict fire because it is a proxy for the semi-quantitative fire–productivity relationship that describes the tradeoff between fuel availability and climate as constraints on fire activity. We partitioned the globe into land-use and land-cover (LULC) categories of forest, grass, cropland, and pasture to investigate how the fire–soil moisture (fire–SM) behavior varies as a function of LULC. We also partitioned the globe into four broadly defined biomes (Boreal, Grassland-Savanna, Temperate, and Tropical) to study the dependence of fire–SM behavior on LULC across those biomes. The forest and grass LULC fire–SM curves are qualitatively similar to the fire–productivity relationship with a peak in fire activity at intermediate SM, a steep decline in fire activity at low SM (productivity constraint), and gradual decline as SM increases (climate constraint), but our analysis highlights how forests and grasses differ across biomes as well. Pasture and cropland LULC are a distinctly human use of the landscape, and fires detected on those LULC types include intentional fires. Cropland fire–SM curves are similar to those for grass LULC, but pasture fires are evident at higher SM values than other LULC. This suggests a departure from the expected climate constraint when burning is happening at non-optimal flammability conditions. Using over a decade of remote sensing data, our results show that quantifying fires relative to a single physical climate variable (soil moisture) is possible on both cultivated and uncultivated landscapes. Linking fire to observable soil moisture conditions for different land-cover types has important applications in fire management and fire modeling.

Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-20-995-2020 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (2) ◽

pp. 995-1020 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Yufei Zou ◽

Yuhang Wang ◽

Yun Qian ◽

Hanqin Tian ◽

Jia Yang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Radiative Effect ◽

Aerosol Cloud ◽

Fire Activity ◽

Climate Systems ◽

Aerosol Cloud Interactions ◽

In Fire ◽

Ecosystem Interactions ◽

Feedback Pathways

Abstract. Large wildfires exert strong disturbance on regional and global climate systems and ecosystems by perturbing radiative forcing as well as the carbon and water balance between the atmosphere and land surface, while short- and long-term variations in fire weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and human activity modulate fire intensity and reshape fire regimes. The complex climate–fire–ecosystem interactions were not fully integrated in previous climate model studies, and the resulting effects on the projections of future climate change are not well understood. Here we use the fully interactive REgion-Specific ecosystem feedback Fire model (RESFire) that was developed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate these interactions and their impacts on climate systems and fire activity. We designed two sets of decadal simulations using CESM-RESFire for present-day (2001–2010) and future (2051–2060) scenarios, respectively, and conducted a series of sensitivity experiments to assess the effects of individual feedback pathways among climate, fire, and ecosystems. Our implementation of RESFire, which includes online land–atmosphere coupling of fire emissions and fire-induced land cover change (LCC), reproduces the observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) from space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products and ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data; it agrees well with carbon budget benchmarks from previous studies. We estimate the global averaged net radiative effect of both fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC at -0.59±0.52 W m−2, which is dominated by fire aerosol–cloud interactions (-0.82±0.19 W m−2), in the present-day scenario under climatological conditions of the 2000s. The fire-related net cooling effect increases by ∼170 % to -1.60±0.27 W m−2 in the 2050s under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. Such considerably enhanced radiative effect is attributed to the largely increased global burned area (+19 %) and fire carbon emissions (+100 %) from the 2000s to the 2050s driven by climate change. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon between the land and atmosphere components in the simulations increases by 33 % accordingly, implying that biomass burning is an increasing carbon source at short-term timescales in the future. High-latitude regions with prevalent peatlands would be more vulnerable to increased fire threats due to climate change, and the increase in fire aerosols could counter the projected decrease in anthropogenic aerosols due to air pollution control policies in many regions. We also evaluate two distinct feedback mechanisms that are associated with fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC, respectively. On a global scale, the first mechanism imposes positive feedbacks to fire activity through enhanced droughts with suppressed precipitation by fire aerosol–cloud interactions, while the second one manifests as negative feedbacks due to reduced fuel loads by fire consumption and post-fire tree mortality and recovery processes. These two feedback pathways with opposite effects compete at regional to global scales and increase the complexity of climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and their climatic impacts.

Managing fire risk during drought: the influence of certification and El Niño on fire-driven forest conversion for oil palm in Southeast Asia

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-8-749-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 8 (3) ◽

pp. 749-771 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Praveen Noojipady ◽

Douglas C. Morton ◽

Wilfrid Schroeder ◽

Kimberly M. Carlson ◽

Chengquan Huang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Palm Oil ◽

Oil Palm ◽

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Fire Risk ◽

Forest Loss ◽

Fire Activity ◽

El Niño Events ◽

In Fire ◽

El Nino Events

Abstract. Indonesia and Malaysia have emerged as leading producers of palm oil in the past several decades, expanding production through the conversion of tropical forests to industrial plantations. Efforts to produce sustainable palm oil, including certification by the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), include guidelines designed to reduce the environmental impact of palm oil production. Fire-driven deforestation is prohibited by law in both countries and a stipulation of RSPO certification, yet the degree of environmental compliance is unclear, especially during El Niño events when drought conditions increase fire risk. Here, we used time series of satellite data to estimate the spatial and temporal patterns of fire-driven deforestation on and around oil palm plantations. In Indonesia, fire-driven deforestation accounted for one-quarter of total forest losses on both certified and noncertified plantations. After the first plantations in Indonesia received RSPO certification in 2009, forest loss and fire-driven deforestation declined on certified plantations but did not stop altogether. Oil palm expansion in Malaysia rarely involved fire; only 5 % of forest loss on certified plantations had coincident active fire detections. Interannual variability in fire detections was strongly influenced by El Niño and the timing of certification. Fire activity during the 2002, 2004, and 2006 El Niño events was similar among oil palm plantations in Indonesia that would later become certified, noncertified plantations, and surrounding areas. However, total fire activity was 75 % and 66 % lower on certified plantations than noncertified plantations during the 2009 and 2015 El Niño events, respectively. The decline in fire activity on certified plantations, including during drought periods, highlights the potential for RSPO certification to safeguard carbon stocks in peatlands and remaining forests in accordance with legislation banning fires. However, aligning certification standards with satellite monitoring capabilities will be critical to realize sustainable palm oil production and meet industry commitments to zero deforestation.

Regional variation in fire weather controls the reported occurrence of Scottish wildfires

PeerJ ◽

10.7717/peerj.2649 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 4 ◽

pp. e2649 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

G. Matt Davies ◽

Colin J. Legg

Keyword(s):

Habitat Management ◽

Fire Risk ◽

Management Tool ◽

Fire Weather ◽

Fuel Moisture ◽

Fire Weather Index ◽

Mahalanobis Distances ◽

Wildfire Occurrence ◽

Fire Activity ◽

In Fire

Fire is widely used as a traditional habitat management tool in Scotland, but wildfires pose a significant and growing threat. The financial costs of fighting wildfires are significant and severe wildfires can have substantial environmental impacts. Due to the intermittent occurrence of severe fire seasons, Scotland, and the UK as a whole, remain somewhat unprepared. Scotland currently lacks any form of Fire Danger Rating system that could inform managers and the Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) of periods when there is a risk of increased of fire activity. We aimed evaluate the potential to use outputs from the Canadian Fire Weather Index system (FWI system) to forecast periods of increased fire risk and the potential for ignitions to turn into large wildfires. We collated four and a half years of wildfire data from the Scottish FRS and examined patterns in wildfire occurrence within different regions, seasons, between urban and rural locations and according to FWI system outputs. We used a variety of techniques, including Mahalanobis distances, percentile analysis and Thiel-Sen regression, to scope the best performing FWI system codes and indices. Logistic regression showed significant differences in fire activity between regions, seasons and between urban and rural locations. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code and the Initial Spread Index did a tolerable job of modelling the probability of fire occurrence but further research on fuel moisture dynamics may provide substantial improvements. Overall our results suggest it would be prudent to ready resources and avoid managed burning when FFMC > 75 and/or ISI > 2.

Simulated Increases in Fire Activity Reinforce Shrub Conversion in a Southwestern US Forest

Ecosystems ◽

10.1007/s10021-020-00498-4 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 23 (8) ◽

pp. 1702-1713

Author(s):

Alisa R. Keyser ◽

Dan J. Krofcheck ◽

Cécile C. Remy ◽

Craig D. Allen ◽

Matthew D. Hurteau

Keyword(s):

Fire Activity ◽

In Fire

Changes in Fire Activity in Africa from 2002 to 2016 and Their Potential Drivers

Geophysical Research Letters ◽

10.1029/2019gl083469 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 46 (13) ◽

pp. 7643-7653 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Maria Zubkova ◽

Luigi Boschetti ◽

John T. Abatzoglou ◽

Louis Giglio

Keyword(s):

Fire Activity ◽

In Fire

Rainfall patterns after fire differentially affect the recruitment of three Mediterranean shrubs

Biogeosciences ◽

10.5194/bg-8-3721-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 8 (12) ◽

pp. 3721-3732 ◽

Cited By ~ 34

Author(s):

J. M. Moreno ◽

E. Zuazua ◽

B. Pérez ◽

B. Luna ◽

A. Velasco ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Seedling Recruitment ◽

Rainfall Variability ◽

Seedling Emergence ◽

Fire Season ◽

First Year ◽

Mediterranean Shrubs ◽

Rainfall Patterns ◽

Fire Characteristics ◽

Projected Changes ◽

In Fire

Abstract. In fire-prone environments, the "event-dependent hypothesis" states that plant population changes are driven by the unique set of conditions of a fire (e.g. fire season, climate). Climate variability, in particular changes in rainfall patterns, can be most important for seeder species, since they regenerate after fire from seeds, and for Mediterranean shrublands, given the high yearly variability of rainfall in these ecosystems. Yet, the role of rainfall variability and its interaction with fire characteristics (e.g. fire season) on plant populations has received little attention. Here we investigated the changes in seedling emergence and recruitment of three seeder species (Cistus ladanifer, Erica umbellata and Rosmarinus officinalis) after fires lit during three different years and at two times (early and late) during the fire season. Three plots were burned at each season, for a total of 18 plots burned during the three years. After fire, emerged seedlings were tallied, tagged and monitored during three years (two in the last burning year). Rainfall during the study period was rather variable and, in some years, it was well below average. Postfire seedling emergence varied by a factor of 3 to 12, depending on the species and on the burning year. The bulk of seedling emergence occurred during the first year after fire; seedling recruitment at the end of the study period was tightly correlated with this early emergence. Emergence in Erica and Rosmarinus, but not in Cistus, was correlated with precipitation in the fall and winter immediately after fire, with Erica being the most sensitive to reduced rainfall. Fire season was generally neither an important factor in controlling emergence nor, in particular, recruitment. We discuss how projected changes in rainfall patterns with global warming could alter the balance of species in this shrubland, and could drive some species to near local extinction.

Role of Local Air‐Sea Interaction in Fire Activity Over Equatorial Asia

Geophysical Research Letters ◽

10.1029/2019gl085943 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 46 (24) ◽

pp. 14789-14797 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jin‐Soo Kim ◽

Su‐Jong Jeong ◽

Jong‐Seong Kug ◽

Mathew Williams

Keyword(s):

Fire Activity ◽

In Fire