Evolution of all-cause mortality rates in the United States of America, anno 1900-1999

2002 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hugo KESTELOOT
2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (49) ◽  
pp. 15078-15083 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anne Case ◽  
Angus Deaton

This paper documents a marked increase in the all-cause mortality of middle-aged white non-Hispanic men and women in the United States between 1999 and 2013. This change reversed decades of progress in mortality and was unique to the United States; no other rich country saw a similar turnaround. The midlife mortality reversal was confined to white non-Hispanics; black non-Hispanics and Hispanics at midlife, and those aged 65 and above in every racial and ethnic group, continued to see mortality rates fall. This increase for whites was largely accounted for by increasing death rates from drug and alcohol poisonings, suicide, and chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis. Although all education groups saw increases in mortality from suicide and poisonings, and an overall increase in external cause mortality, those with less education saw the most marked increases. Rising midlife mortality rates of white non-Hispanics were paralleled by increases in midlife morbidity. Self-reported declines in health, mental health, and ability to conduct activities of daily living, and increases in chronic pain and inability to work, as well as clinically measured deteriorations in liver function, all point to growing distress in this population. We comment on potential economic causes and consequences of this deterioration.


1993 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 195-231
Author(s):  
M. G. Kerr

Throughout this century we have become accustomed to regular improvement in mortality rates at most ages. For life office actuaries this trend could be regarded as a potential source of profit for assurance business, but as a possible source of loss for annuities. However, since the movements in mortality were gradual then mortality rates at any given time could be estimated with a fair degree of confidence.In this relatively stable environment, there was little concern over the first report of a death caused by complete and unaccountable failure of the immune system in the United States of America in 1981. When the number of such deaths began to grow and to migrate to Europe than actuaries had to take notice. Here was a disease (called AIDS) which was causing deaths at an alarmingly increasing rate and which medical science seemed powerless to counter. Concern grew about the effect which a major increase in mortality rates caused by AIDS would have on the financial health of life offices.


2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Katie M. Lynch ◽  
Robert H. Lyles ◽  
Lance A. Waller ◽  
Azar M. Abadi ◽  
Jesse E. Bell ◽  
...  

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bethany J. Foster ◽  
Mark M. Mitsnefes ◽  
Mourad Dahhou ◽  
Xun Zhang ◽  
Benjamin L. Laskin

Background and objectivesIndividuals with ESRD have a very high risk of death. Although mortality rates have decreased over time in ESRD, it is unknown if improvements merely reflect parallel increases in general population survival. We, therefore, examined changes in the excess risk of all-cause mortality—over and above the risk in the general population—among people treated for ESRD in the United States from 1995 to 2013. We hypothesized that the magnitude of change in the excess risk of death would differ by age and RRT modality.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsWe used time-dependent relative survival models including data from persons with incident ESRD as recorded in the US Renal Data System and age-, sex-, race-, and calendar year–specific general population mortality rates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. We calculated relative excess risks (analogous to hazard ratios) to examine the association between advancing calendar time and the primary outcome of all-cause mortality.ResultsWe included 1,938,148 children and adults with incident ESRD from 1995 to 2013. Adjusted relative excess risk per 5-year increment in calendar time ranged from 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.69 to 0.77) for 0–14 year olds to 0.88 (95% confidence interval, 0.88 to 0.88) for ≥65 year olds, meaning that the excess risk of ESRD-related death decreased by 12%–27% over any 5-year interval between 1995 and 2013. Decreases in excess mortality over time were observed for all ages and both during treatment with dialysis and during time with a functioning kidney transplant (year by age and year by renal replacement modality interactions were both P<0.001), with the largest relative improvements observed for the youngest persons with a functioning kidney transplant. Absolute decreases in excess ESRD-related mortality were greatest for the oldest persons.ConclusionsThe excess risk of all-cause mortality among people with ESRD, over and above the risk in the general population, decreased significantly between 1995 and 2013 in the United States.


2002 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 745-753 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Muntner ◽  
Jiang He ◽  
Lee Hamm ◽  
Catherine Loria ◽  
Paul K. Whelton

ABSTRACT. Several epidemiologic studies reported that persons with renal insufficiency might have increased cardiovascular disease-related mortality rates in select populations. The association between renal insufficiency and increased cardiovascular disease-related and all-cause mortality rates during 16 yr of follow-up monitoring was examined among participants who were 30 to 74 yr of age at the baseline examinations in 1976 to 1980, with urinary protein dipstick measurements (n = 8786) or serum creatinine levels of ≤3.0 mg/dl (n = 6354), from the Second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Mortality Study. GFR were estimated by adjusting serum creatinine levels for age, race, and gender, using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease formula. Cardiovascular disease-related mortality rates were 6.2, 17.9, and 37.2 deaths/1000 person-yr among subjects with urinary protein levels of <30, 30 to 299, and ≥300 mg/dl and were 4.1, 8.6, and 20.5 deaths/1000 person-yr among participants with estimated GFR of ≥90, 70 to 89, and <70 ml/min, respectively. After adjustment for potential confounders, the relative hazards (and 95% confidence intervals) for cardiovascular disease-related death were 1.57 (0.99 to 2.48) and 1.77 (0.97 to 3.21) among subjects with urinary protein levels of 30 to 299 and ≥300 mg/dl, respectively, compared with <30 mg/dl (P trend = 0.02). The corresponding relative hazards for all-cause-related death were 1.64 (1.23 to 2.18) and 2.00 (1.13 to 3.55; P trend < 0.001). Compared with subjects with estimated GFR of ≥90 ml/min, those with estimated GFR of <70 ml/min exhibited higher relative risks of death from cardiovascular disease and all causes [1.68 (1.33 to 2.13) and 1.51 (1.19 to 1.91), respectively]. This study indicates that, in a representative sample of the United States general population, renal insufficiency is independently associated with increased cardiovascular disease-related and all-cause mortality rates.


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