scholarly journals The Uncertain Influence of the African Great Lakes and the Indian Ocean Dipole on Local-scale East Africa Short Rains

SOLA ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (0) ◽  
pp. 158-163
Author(s):  
Brandon J. Bethel ◽  
Kelly Dusabe
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
African Great Lakes ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Short Rains

scholarly journals The Indian Ocean dipole ? the unsung driver of climatic variability in East Africa

2007 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rob Marchant ◽  
Cassian Mumbi ◽  
Swadhin Behera ◽  
Toshio Yamagata
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
The Indian Ocean

scholarly journals The Moderate Impact of the 2015 El Niño over East Africa and Its Representation in Seasonal Reforecasts

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (22) ◽  
pp. 7989-8001 ◽  
Author(s):  
David MacLeod ◽  
Cyril Caminade
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
East Africa ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Eastern Indian Ocean ◽  
East African ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Short Rains

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has large socioeconomic impacts worldwide. The positive phase of ENSO, El Niño, has been linked to intense rainfall over East Africa during the short rains season (October–December). However, we show here that during the extremely strong 2015 El Niño the precipitation anomaly over most of East Africa during the short rains season was less intense than experienced during previous El Niños, linked to less intense easterlies over the Indian Ocean. This moderate impact was not indicated by reforecasts from the ECMWF operational seasonal forecasting system, SEAS5, which instead forecast large probabilities of an extreme wet signal, with stronger easterly anomalies over the surface of the Indian Ocean and a colder eastern Indian Ocean/western Pacific than was observed. To confirm the relationship of the eastern Indian Ocean to East African rainfall in the forecast for 2015, atmospheric relaxation experiments are carried out that constrain the east Indian Ocean lower troposphere to reanalysis. By doing so the strong wet forecast signal is reduced. These results raise the possibility that link between ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events is too strong in the ECMWF dynamical seasonal forecast system and that model predictions for the East African short rains rainfall during strong El Niño events may have a bias toward high probabilities of wet conditions.

scholarly journals Diagnosing the Droughts and Floods in Equatorial East Africa during Boreal Autumn 2005–08

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 813-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Hastenrath ◽  
Dierk Polzin ◽  
Charles Mutai
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Short Note ◽  
Vertical Circulation ◽  
Circulation Cell ◽  
Droughts And Floods ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Short Rains ◽  
Surface Manifestation

Abstract Building on an earlier report on the 2005 drought in equatorial East Africa, this short note examines the circulation mechanisms of the anomalies in the boreal autumn “short rains” season in the subsequent three years. Westerlies during this season are the surface manifestation of a powerful zonal–vertical circulation cell along the Indian Ocean equator. The surface equatorial westerlies were fast during the 2005 and 2008 droughts, near average during the near-average 2007 short rains, and slack during the 2006 floods, consistent with the known circulation diagnostics.

scholarly journals Paramount Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the East African Short Rains: A CGCM Study

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (21) ◽  
pp. 4514-4530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swadhin K. Behera ◽  
Jing-Jia Luo ◽  
Sebastien Masson ◽  
Pascale Delecluse ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Driving Mechanism ◽  
East African ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Short Rains

Abstract The variability in the East African short rains is investigated using 41-yr data from the observation and 200-yr data from a coupled general circulation model known as the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change, version 1 (SINTEX-F1). The model-simulated data provide a scope to understand the climate variability in the region with a better statistical confidence. Most of the variability in the model short rains is linked to the basinwide large-scale coupled mode, that is, the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean. The analysis of observed data and model results reveals that the influence of the IOD on short rains is overwhelming as compared to that of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the correlation between ENSO and short rains is insignificant when the IOD influence is excluded. The IOD–short rains relationship does not change significantly in a model experiment in which the ENSO influence is removed by decoupling the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. The partial correlation analysis of the model data demonstrates that a secondary influence comes from a regional mode located near the African coast. Inconsistent with the observational findings, the model results show a steady evolution of IOD prior to extreme events of short rains. Dynamically consistent evolution of correlations is found in anomalies of the surface winds, currents, sea surface height, and sea surface temperature. Anomalous changes of the Walker circulation provide a necessary driving mechanism for anomalous moisture transport and convection over the coastal East Africa. The model results nicely augment the observational findings and provide us with a physical basis to consider IOD as a predictor for variations of the short rains. This is demonstrated in detail using the statistical analysis method. The prediction skill of the dipole mode SST index in July and August is 92% for the observation, which scales slightly higher for the model index (96%) in August. As observed in data, the model results show decadal weakening in the relationship between IOD and short rains owing to weakening in the IOD activity.

scholarly journals Customization and Validation of a Regional Climate Model Using Satellite Data Over East Africa

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 317
Author(s):  
Masilin Gudoshava ◽  
Fredrick H. M. Semazzi
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Lake Victoria ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Short Rains

This study focused on the customization of the fourth generation International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 4.4 and its ability to reproduce the mean climate and most dominant modes of variability over East Africa. The simulations were performed at a spatial resolution of 25 km for the period 1998–2013. The model was driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis. The customization focus was on cumulus and microphysics schemes during the Short Rains for the year 2000. The best physics combinations were then utilized for the validation studies. The East Africa region and Lake Victoria Basin region are adapted to carry out empirical orthogonal function analysis, during the Short and Long Rains. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data was utilized in the validation of the model. The first mode of variability from the model and observational data during the Short Rains was associated with the warming of the Pacific Ocean and the sea surface temperature gradients over the Indian Ocean. During the Long rains, the inter-annual rainfall variability over the Lake Victoria region was associated with the sea surface temperature anomaly over the Indian Ocean and for the East Africa region the associations were weak. The drivers during the Long Rains over East Africa region were then further investigated by splitting the season to the March–April and May periods. The March–April period was positively correlated to the West Pacific and Indian Ocean dipole index, while May was associated with the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. In conclusion, although the model can reproduce the dominant modes of variability as in the observational data sets during the Short Rains, skill was lower during the Long Rains.

scholarly journals Analysis of Drought-Sensitive Areas and Evolution Patterns through Statistical Simulations of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing-Gang Gao ◽  
Vonevilay Sombutmounvong ◽  
Lihua Xiong ◽  
Joo-Heon Lee ◽  
Jong-Suk Kim
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Diagnostic Techniques ◽  
Eastern Coast ◽  
Indochina Peninsula ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole Mode ◽  
Sensitive Areas ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Long Term Trend

In this study, we investigated extreme droughts in the Indochina peninsula and their relationship with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode. Areas most vulnerable to drought were analyzed via statistical simulations of the IOD based on historical observations. Results of the long-term trend analysis indicate that areas with increasing spring (March–May) rainfall are mainly distributed along the eastern coast (Vietnam) and the northwestern portions of the Indochina Peninsula (ICP), while Central and Northern Laos and Northern Cambodia have witnessed a reduction in spring rainfall over the past few decades. This trend is similar to that of extreme drought. During positive IOD years, the frequency of extreme droughts was reduced throughout Vietnam and in the southwestern parts of China, while increased drought was observed in Cambodia, Central Laos, and along the coastline adjacent to the Myanmar Sea. Results for negative IOD years were similar to changes observed for positive IOD years; however, the eastern and northern parts of the ICP experienced reduced droughts. In addition, the results of the statistical simulations proposed in this study successfully simulate drought-sensitive areas and evolution patterns of various IOD changes. The results of this study can help improve diagnostic techniques for extreme droughts in the ICP.

Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on tree-ring δ18O of monsoonal Southeast Tibet

2016 ◽  
Vol 137 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 217-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Hochreuther ◽  
Jakob Wernicke ◽  
Jussi Grießinger ◽  
Thomas Mölg ◽  
Haifeng Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Southeast Tibet

Shipping and Trade between Hamburg-Bremen and the Indian Ocean, 1870–1914

1982 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-386
Author(s):  
Hermann Kellenbenz
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
East Africa ◽  
First World War ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Early Years ◽  
World War ◽  
Short Survey ◽  
The First World War ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
First World

This study is intended to give a short survey on the development of shipping and trade between two main German ports and the Indian Ocean from the early years of the Bismarck period to the beginning of the First World War. The study deals with the area from East Africa to East India and from Indochina to Indonesia. China, the Philippines, and Australia will not be considered. It is based on an analysis of published material.

scholarly journals The Geology of Portuguese Nyasaland

1922 ◽  
Vol 59 (5) ◽  
pp. 200-212
Author(s):  
Robert R. Walls
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
East Africa ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
Dark Continent ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Portuguese Nyasaland is the name given to the most northern part of Portuguese East Africa, lying between Lake Nyasa and the Indian Ocean. It is separated from the Tanganyika territory in the north by the River Rovuma and from the Portuguese province of Mozambique in the south by the River Lurio. The territory measures about 400 miles from east to west and 200 miles from north to south and has an area of nearly 90,000 square miles. This territory is now perhaps the least known part of the once Dark Continent, but while the writer was actually engaged in the exploration of this country in 1920–1, the Naval Intelligence Division of the British Admiralty published two handbooks, the Manual of Portuguese East Africa and the Handbook of Portuguese Nyasaland, which with their extensive bibliographies contained practically everything that was known of that country up to that date (1920). These handbooks make it unnecessary in this paper to give detailed accounts of the work of previous explorers.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document