Probabilistic nature of storage delay parameter of the hydrologic model RORB: a case study for the Cooper's Creek catchment in Australia

2014 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 400-410 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hitesh Patel ◽  
Ataur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Technique ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Accurate Design ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Probabilistic Nature

In rainfall–runoff modeling, Design Event Approach is widely adopted in practice, which assumes that the rainfall depth of a given annual exceedance probability (AEP), can be converted to a flood peak of the same AEP by assuming a representative fixed value for the other model inputs/parameters such as temporal pattern, losses and storage-delay parameter of the runoff routing model. This paper presents a case study which applies Monte Carlo simulation technique (MCST) to assess the probabilistic nature of the storage delay parameter (kc) of the RORB model for the Cooper's Creek catchment in New South Wales, Australia. It has been found that the values of kc exhibit a high degree of variability, and different sets of plausible values of kc result in quite different flood peak estimates. It has been shown that a stochastic kc in the MCST provides more accurate design flood estimates than a fixed representative value of kc. The method presented in this study can be adapted to other catchments/countries to derive more accurate design flood estimates, in particular for important flood study projects, which require a sensitivity analysis to investigate the impacts of parameter uncertainty on design flood estimates.

scholarly journals Deriving Design Flood Hydrograph Based on Conditional Distribution: A Case Study of Danjiangkou Reservoir in Hanjiang Basin

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changjiang Xu ◽  
Jiabo Yin ◽  
Shenglian Guo ◽  
Zhangjun Liu ◽  
Xingjun Hong
Keyword(s):  
Joint Probability ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Flood Frequency Analysis ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Danjiangkou Reservoir ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Flood Hydrograph

Design flood hydrograph (DFH) for a dam is the flood of suitable probability and magnitude adopted to ensure safety of the dam in accordance with appropriate design standards. Estimated quantiles of peak discharge and flood volumes are necessary for deriving the DFH, which are mutually correlated and need to be described by multivariate analysis methods. The joint probability distributions of peak discharge and flood volumes were established using copula functions. Then the general formulae of conditional most likely composition (CMLC) and conditional expectation composition (CEC) methods that consider the inherent relationship between flood peak and volumes were derived for estimating DFH. The Danjiangkou reservoir in Hanjiang basin was selected as a case study. The design values of flood volumes and 90% confidence intervals with different peak discharges were estimated by the proposed methods. The performance of CMLC and CEC methods was also compared with conventional flood frequency analysis, and the results show that CMLC method performs best for both bivariate and trivariate distributions which has the smallest relative error and root mean square error. The proposed CMLC method has strong statistical basis with unique design flood composition scheme and provides an alternative way for deriving DFH.

scholarly journals Bivariate return period based on copulas for hydrologic dam design: comparison of theoretical and empirical approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 557-596 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. I. Requena ◽  
L. Mediero ◽  
L. Garrote
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Probability Of Occurrence ◽  
Maximum Water ◽  
Bivariate Copula ◽  
Dam Overtopping ◽  
Bivariate Return Period ◽  
Water Elevation

Abstract. Hydrologic frequency analyses are usually focused on flood peaks. Multivariate analyses on flood variables have not been so exhaustively studied despite the fact that they are required to represent the full hydrograph, which is essential for designing some structures like dams. In this work, a bivariate copula model was used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume. An empirical bivariate return period was defined in terms of acceptable risk to the dam through the maximum water elevation reached during the routing process, in order to perform a risk assessment of dam overtopping. A Monte Carlo procedure was developed to compare the probability of occurrence of a flood with the return period linked to the risk of dam overtopping. The procedure is applied to the case study of the Santillana reservoir in Spain. A set of synthetic peak-volume pairs was generated by the fitted copula and synthetic hydrographs were routed through the reservoir. Different reservoir volumes and spillway lengths were considered. Hydrographs with the same risk were represented by a curve in the peak-volume space. These curves were compared to those linked to the probability of occurrence of a flood event, in order to improve the estimation of the Design Flood Hydrograph.

CSim 2

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-46
Author(s):  
David Sanan ◽  
Yongwang Zhao ◽  
Shang-Wei Lin ◽  
Liu Yang
Keyword(s):  
Programming Languages ◽  
Concurrent Systems ◽  
Theorem Prover ◽  
Compositional Techniques ◽  
Machine Code ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Hol Theorem Prover ◽  
High Level ◽  
High Degree

To make feasible and scalable the verification of large and complex concurrent systems, it is necessary the use of compositional techniques even at the highest abstraction layers. When focusing on the lowest software abstraction layers, such as the implementation or the machine code, the high level of detail of those layers makes the direct verification of properties very difficult and expensive. It is therefore essential to use techniques allowing to simplify the verification on these layers. One technique to tackle this challenge is top-down verification where by means of simulation properties verified on top layers (representing abstract specifications of a system) are propagated down to the lowest layers (that are an implementation of the top layers). There is no need to say that simulation of concurrent systems implies a greater level of complexity, and having compositional techniques to check simulation between layers is also desirable when seeking for both feasibility and scalability of the refinement verification. In this article, we present CSim 2 a (compositional) rely-guarantee-based framework for the top-down verification of complex concurrent systems in the Isabelle/HOL theorem prover. CSim 2 uses CSimpl, a language with a high degree of expressiveness designed for the specification of concurrent programs. Thanks to its expressibility, CSimpl is able to model many of the features found in real world programming languages like exceptions, assertions, and procedures. CSim 2 provides a framework for the verification of rely-guarantee properties to compositionally reason on CSimpl specifications. Focusing on top-down verification, CSim 2 provides a simulation-based framework for the preservation of CSimpl rely-guarantee properties from specifications to implementations. By using the simulation framework, properties proven on the top layers (abstract specifications) are compositionally propagated down to the lowest layers (source or machine code) in each concurrent component of the system. Finally, we show the usability of CSim 2 by running a case study over two CSimpl specifications of an Arinc-653 communication service. In this case study, we prove a complex property on a specification, and we use CSim 2 to preserve the property on lower abstraction layers.

scholarly journals Urban Rivers Corridors in the Don Catchment, UK: From Ignored, Ignoble and Industrial to Green, Seen and Celebrated

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7646
Author(s):  
Ed Shaw ◽  
Debbie Coldwell ◽  
Anthony Cox ◽  
Matt Duffy ◽  
Chris Firth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Urban River ◽  
Urban Rivers ◽  
River Habitat ◽  
Negative Perceptions ◽  
High Degree ◽  
River Corridors ◽  
Advance Knowledge ◽  
Ecological Recovery

Research on urban rivers often seeks to find commonalities to advance knowledge of the effect of urbanisation on rivers, and rightly so. But it is important, also, to develop a complementary understanding of how urban rivers can be distinct, to facilitate a more nuanced view of concepts such as the ‘urban river syndrome’ and of the challenges facing those who wish to create more sustainable urban river corridors. To this end we use the Don Catchment as a case study to illustrate how historic patterns of urbanisation have been fundamental in shaping the catchment’s rivers. Following the Industrial Revolution, the catchment became an industrial centre, resulting in the ecological death of river ecosystems, and the disconnection of communities from stark urban river corridors. Widescale deindustrialisation in the 1970s and 1980s then resulted in a partial ecological recovery of the rivers, and ignited public interest. This history has imbued the catchment’s urban river corridors with a distinctive industrial character that can vary greatly between and within settlements. It has also left a legacy of particular issues, including a high degree of river habitat fragmentation and physical modification, and of negative perceptions of the rivers, which need improving to realise their potential as assets to local communities.

The Use of Photogrammetry in Piping Design

1983 ◽  
Vol 197 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
P A Bracewell ◽  
U R Klement
Keyword(s):  
Information Retrieval ◽  
Mathematical Formulation ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Process Industry ◽  
Process Plant ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Positional Data

Piping design for ‘revamp’ projects in the process industry requires the retrieval of large amounts of ‘as-built’ data from existing process plant installations. Positional data with a high degree of accuracy are required. Photogrammetry, the science of measurement from photographs, was identified in Imperial Chemical Industries plc (ICI) as a suitable tool for information retrieval. The mathematical formulation enabling the definition of three-dimensional positions from photographic information is described. The process of using ICI's photogrammetric system for the definition of complete objects such as structures and pipes is illustrated. The need for specialized photogrammetric software for design purposes is explained. A case study describing how the photogrammetric system has been applied is described and graphical outputs from this exercise are shown. It is concluded that this particular photogrammetric system has proved to be a cost effective and accurate tool for the retrieval of ‘as-built’ information.

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