scholarly journals Identifying most promising agronomic adaptation strategies to close rainfed rice yield gap in future: a model-based assessment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subhankar Debnath ◽  
Ashok Mishra ◽  
D. R. Mailapalli ◽  
N. S. Raghuwanshi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Yield Gap ◽  
Rainfed Rice ◽  
Agronomic Adaptation

Abstract There is an increasing consensus that climate change may have a high negative impact on crop yield, and that it will affect farmers in developing and least developed counties the most. ‘Close the yield gap’ could be one of the promising options to address the issue of yield improvement. Better understanding of adaptation strategies and implication of the adaptations in crop yield are required to close the yield gap. In this study, the effectiveness of agronomic adaptation options on rainfed rice yield gap was evaluated for the baseline period (1981–2005) and two future periods (2016–2040 and 2026–2050) for India by using bias-corrected RegCM4 output and the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. Results suggested that a combined adjustment of transplanting time (advancing by fortnight), crop spacing ((10 × 10) cm) and N-fertilizer application (140 kg/ha) was the best strategy as compared to single adaptation option to close the yield gap under the climate change scenario. The strategy improved rice yield by 37.5–168.0% and reduced average attainable yield gap among the cultivars from 0.74 to 0.16 t/ha under future climate projection. This study provides agronomic indications to rice growers and lays the basis for an economic analysis to support policy-makers, in charge of promoting the sustainability of the rainfed rice-growing systems.

scholarly journals Assessment of rice yield gap under a changing climate in India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subhankar Debnath ◽  
Ashok Mishra ◽  
D. R. Mailapalli ◽  
N. S. Raghuwanshi ◽  
V. Sridhar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Explicit Knowledge ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Yield Gap ◽  
Climate Conditions

Abstract Climate change evokes future food security concerns and needs for sustainable intensification of agriculture. The explicit knowledge about crop yield gap at country level may help in identifying management strategies for sustainable agricultural production to meet future food demand. In this study, we assessed the rice yield gap under projected climate change scenario in India at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution by using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. The simulated spatial yield results show that mean actual yield under rainfed conditions (Ya) will reduce from 2.13 t/ha in historical period 1981–2005 to 1.67 t/ha during the 2030s (2016–2040) and 2040s (2026–2050), respectively, under the RCP 8.5 scenario. On the other hand, mean rainfed yield gap shows no change (≈1.49 t/ha) in the future. Temporal analysis of yield indicates that Ya is expected to decrease in the considerably large portion of the study area (30–60%) under expected future climate conditions. As a result, yield gap is expected to either stagnate or increase in 50.6 and 48.7% of the study area during the two future periods, respectively. The research outcome indicates the need for identifying plausible best management strategies to reduce the yield gap under expected future climate conditions for sustainable rice production in India.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on Rained Rice Production and Irrigation Water Requirement in Songkhram River Basin, Thailand

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 63-74
Author(s):  
S. Boonwicahi ◽  
S. Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Irrigation Water Requirement ◽  
Rainfed Rice ◽  
Songkhram River

Songkhram river basin, located in northeast Thailand, is where most of the farmers grow rice in rainy season. The water shortage frequently occurs during dry season as the basin has no dam along the river to store water for agriculture purposes. The river connected with Mekong River. Floods occur in many areas because high rainfall density in the basin and backwater effect from Mekong River. The climate change, temperature rise and uncertainty of rainfall, is significant influence to water availability for agriculture sector as well as agriculture production especially rice production. The study assesses the impact of climate change on irrigation water requirement (IWR) and rice production for KDML 105 rice variety in wet season (July – November) using DSSAT crop simulation model. The predicted of IWR and rice production were used an ensemble of five Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for three future periods. The results show an increasing trend in both maximum and minimum temperature. The maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to rise up to 1.9 °C relative to baseline period (1980-2004) under RCP8.5 scenario in 2080s (2070–2094). Rainfall may decrease in the first future period, 2030s (2020 – 2044), and will rise in the 2055s (2045–2069) and 2080s (2070-2094) periods. Rainfall is projected to increase by 13% and 9% relative to baseline period for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively in the last future periods (2080s). Therefore, the water shortage might occur in the first period. The middle and last periods might have flood due to higher of rainfall. The trend of IWR is expected to increase, which may rise by 18% and 5% in 2080s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario espectively. Due to the increment of temperature and IWR, rainfed rice yield is found to decrease in the future. The rainfed rice yield may reduce by 14% and 10% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario respectively in 2080s. However, the IWR is higher due to temperature rise in the future. The increasing of reservoir capacity and improve the water management practices might reduce the crop water deficit and increase crop production.

scholarly journals Modelling of the Discharge Response to Climate Change under RCP8.5 Scenario in the Alata River Basin (Mersin, SE Turkey)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 483
Author(s):  
Ümit Yıldırım ◽  
Cüneyt Güler ◽  
Barış Önol ◽  
Michael Rode ◽  
Seifeddine Jomaa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Distributed Process ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Se Turkey

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response of a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment using a hydrological model. The effect of climate change on the discharge of the Alata River Basin in Mersin province (Turkey) was assessed under the worst-case climate change scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), using the semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE). First, the model was evaluated temporally and spatially and has been shown to reproduce the measured discharge consistently. Second, the discharge was predicted under climate projections in three distinct future periods (i.e., 2021–2040, 2046–2065 and 2081–2100, reflecting the beginning, middle and end of the century, respectively). Climate change projections showed that the annual mean temperature in the Alata River Basin rises for the beginning, middle and end of the century, with about 1.35, 2.13 and 4.11 °C, respectively. Besides, the highest discharge timing seems to occur one month earlier (February instead of March) compared to the baseline period (2000–2011) in the beginning and middle of the century. The results show a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature in all future projections, resulting in more snowmelt and higher discharge generation in the beginning and middle of the century scenarios. However, at the end of the century, the discharge significantly decreased due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced snow depth in the upstream area. The findings of this study can help develop efficient climate change adaptation options in the Levant’s coastal areas.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate Changes on Crop Yield: Irrigated vs. Non-Irrigated Zones in Mississippi

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2249
Author(s):  
Sadia Alam Shammi ◽  
Qingmin Meng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
The Impact

Climate change and its impact on agriculture are challenging issues regarding food production and food security. Many researchers have been trying to show the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on agriculture using different methods. In this study, we used linear regression models to assess the impact of climate on crop yield spatially and temporally by managing irrigated and non-irrigated crop fields. The climate data used in this study are Tmax (maximum temperature), Tmean (mean temperature), Tmin (minimum temperature), precipitation, and soybean annual yields, at county scale for Mississippi, USA, from 1980 to 2019. We fit a series of linear models that were evaluated based on statistical measurements of adjusted R-square, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). According to the statistical model evaluation, the 1980–1992 model Y[Tmax,Tmin,Precipitation]92i (BIC = 120.2) for irrigated zones and the 1993–2002 model Y[Tmax,Tmean,Precipitation]02ni (BIC = 1128.9) for non-irrigated zones showed the best fit for the 10-year period of climatic impacts on crop yields. These models showed about 2 to 7% significant negative impact of Tmax increase on the crop yield for irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Besides, the models for different agricultural districts also explained the changes of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation in the irrigated (adjusted R-square: 13–28%) and non-irrigated zones (adjusted R-square: 8–73%). About 2–10% negative impact of Tmax was estimated across different agricultural districts, whereas about −2 to +17% impacts of precipitation were observed for different districts. The modeling of 40-year periods of the whole state of Mississippi estimated a negative impact of Tmax (about 2.7 to 8.34%) but a positive impact of Tmean (+8.9%) on crop yield during the crop growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated regions. Overall, we assessed that crop yields were negatively affected (about 2–8%) by the increase of Tmax during the growing season, for both irrigated and non-irrigated zones. Both positive and negative impacts on crop yields were observed for the increases of Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation, respectively, for irrigated and non-irrigated zones. This study showed the pattern and extent of Tmax, Tmean, Tmin, and precipitation and their impacts on soybean yield at local and regional scales. The methods and the models proposed in this study could be helpful to quantify the climate change impacts on crop yields by considering irrigation conditions for different regions and periods.

scholarly journals Factors Influencing the Choice of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies by Households: A Case of Mpolonjeni Area Development Programme (ADP) in Swaziland

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 86 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phindile Shongwe ◽  
Micah B. Masuku ◽  
Absalom M. Manyatsi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Household Head ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Extension Services ◽  
Access To Credit ◽  
Factors Influencing

The increased involvement of food relief agencies nearly on an annual basis is a clear indication that agricultural production continues to decline as a result of climate change. In order to mitigate the negative effect of climate change, households engage on adaptation strategies. The extent to which these impacts are felt depends mostly on the level of adaptation in response to climate change. The main objectives of the study were to identify the adaptation strategies employed by households and to analyse factors influencing the choice of adaptation strategies by households using personal interviews. The study used data from a random sample of 350 households. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression model were used to analyse the data. The results showed that adaptation strategies employed were; drought tolerant varieties, switching crops, irrigation, crop rotation, mulching, minimum tillage, early planting, late planting and intercropping. The results showed that the choice of adaptation strategies by households was significantly (p <0.05) influenced by; age of household head, occupation of household head, being a member of a social group, land category, access to credit, access to extension services and training, high incidences of crop pest and disease, high input prices, high food prices, perceptions of households towards climate change. Moreover, the analysis showed that perceptions of households towards climate change significantly influence all adaptation strategies. However, sex and education level of the household head were insignificant in influencing household choice when adapting to climate change. It is recommended that there is need to educate households about the negative impact of climate change on cropping systems. The study also recommends that agriculture extension services should be strengthened, agriculture financial institutions should accommodate subsistence farmers on communal land and rural micro-finance institutions should be developed, in order to facilitate farmers to choose effective adaptation strategies. 

Assessment of Rice Yield and Irrigation Water Demand Change in the Korean Peninsula based on RCP Climate Change Scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sujong Lee ◽  
Halim Lee ◽  
Hyun-Woo Jo ◽  
Youngjin Ko ◽  
Chul-Hee Lim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Korean Peninsula ◽  
North Korea ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Epic Model ◽  
Irrigation Water Demand

&lt;p&gt;In 2019, The Food and Agriculture Organization(FAO) announced that North Korea was a food shortage country and which is closely related to the agricultural drought frequency. These agricultural drought frequencies derived from global climate change are increasing and in terms of climate change, agricultural drought is not just a national problem, but a global scale issue. To respond to agricultural drought-related with food shortage, various studies and projects are conducted based on the remote sensing data and modeling such as hydrological model, crop model, but access to public data in North Korea is limited, and also objectivity is difficult to be guaranteed. In this study, the estimation of rice yield and irrigation water demand based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) climate change scenario was conducted using Environmental Policy Integrated Climate(EPIC) model which calculates various variables related to agriculture by using climatic data, Soil data and topographic data. For validating the parameter of the model, the study area was set to the Korean Peninsula and the parameter was set stepwise compared results of the model with South Korea national statistics. The results of rice yield and irrigation water demand in the Korean Peninsula was validated by using statistics of international organizations. The assessment of Rice Yield and Irrigation Water Demand Change based on the EPIC model is considered a method for complementing the field test and statistical limitations in North Korea. This study can be used as basic data for agricultural drought in North Korea and Based on the model results, it is necessary to concern food security.&lt;/p&gt;

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