scholarly journals STATISTICAL APPROACH IN DEVELOPING ALGORITHMS FOR RISK ANALYSIS OF SMALL INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES

2021 ◽  
pp. 39-52
Author(s):  
A.N. Shendalev ◽  
◽  
O.A. Shendaleva ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Industrial Enterprises

The article deals with the problem of reducing the technological risks of an enterprise. To solve the problem, a risk assessment model is proposed, based on the analysis of information about the time and operating conditions of operation of technical facilities. An algorithm for analyzing technological risks has been developed and recommendations for further operation of the facility have been formu-lated.

scholarly journals Commercial Vehicles Incapacity Risk Analysis in the Transport Company

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 321-340
Author(s):  
Andrzej Niewczas ◽  
Łukasz Mórawski ◽  
Ewa Dębicka ◽  
Anna Borucka
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Transport System ◽  
Operational Research ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Commercial Vehicles ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract A proposal was presented to assess the incapacity risk of commercial vehicles performing transport tasks under market conditions. The risk assessment model in the form of cost was used, which is based on the determination of operational efficiency, referring the probable costs of ensuring the reliability of the transport system to the estimated threshold income. It includes costs: incidental repairs, unplanned downtime and resulting from the presumed loss of client’s trust. Operational research were carried out on a group of several dozen vehicles, registering their operational states during several years of use. The results of the research confirmed the suitability of the incapacity risk model for predicting potential expenses for guarantee the vehicle’s continuity of running in the company and to verify the selection of the vehicle brand and the period of use.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Rail Test Frequencies Using Risk Analysis

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Y. Jeong ◽  
J. E. Gordon
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Oil Refining ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Track Maintenance ◽  
Exploration And Production ◽  
Operational Factors ◽  
Conducting Research ◽  
Maintenance And Inspection

Several industries now use risk analysis to develop inspection programs to ensure acceptable mechanical integrity and reliability. These industries include nuclear and electric power generation, oil refining, gas processing, onshore and offshore exploration and production, chemical processing, and pipelines. Risk analysis may also be used as a decision-making tool in the railroad industry to develop systematic improvements in track maintenance and inspection strategies. In the course of conducting research in support of the Federal Railroad Administration, a Monte Carlo risk assessment model has been developed to simulate certain aspects of rail inspection (also referred to as rail testing) to find and remove defects that may grow to sufficient size to cause rail failures. In this paper, the model is used to examine the relationship between the occurrence of rail failures and various operational factors. These operational factors include rail size, average axle loading, and inspection frequency. In addition, the risk assessment model is used to evaluate an alternative rail testing concept in which detector cars would conduct inspections at speeds higher than those used in current practice.

Lifecycle cost risk analysis for infrastructure projects with modified Bayesian networks

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nini Xia ◽  
Xueqing Wang ◽  
Ye Wang ◽  
Qiubo Yang ◽  
Xing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Statistical Knowledge ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
Propagation Network ◽  
Project Lifecycle

Purpose Previous research has little specific guidance on how to improve large infrastructures’ risk analysis. This paper aims to propose a practical risk analysis framework across the project lifecycle with Bayesian Networks (BNs). Design/methodology/approach The framework includes three phases. In the qualitative phase, primary risks were identified by literature reviews and interviews; questionnaires were used to determine key risks at each project stage and causal relationships between stage-related risks. In the quantitation, brainstorming and questionnaires, and techniques of ranked nodes/paths, risk map and Bayesian truth serum were adopted. Then, a BN-based risk assessment model was developed, and risk analysis was conducted with AgenaRisk software. Findings Twenty key risks across the lifecycle were determined: some risks were recurring and different risks emerged at various stages with the construction and feasibility most risky. Results showed that previous stages’ risks significantly amplified subsequent stages’ risks. Based on the causality of stage-related risks, a qualitative model was easily constructed. Ranked nodes/paths facilitated the quantification by requiring less statistical knowledge and fewer parameters than traditional BNs. As articulated by a case, this model yielded very simple and easy-to-understand representations of risks and risk propagation pathways. Originality/value Rare research has developed a BN risk assessment model from the perspective of project stages. A structured model, a propagation network among individual risks, stage-related risks, and the final adverse consequence, has been designed. This research provides practitioners with a realistic risk assessment approach and further understanding of dynamic and stage-related risks throughout large infrastructures’ lifecycle. The framework can be modified and used in other real-world risk analysis where risks are complex and develop in stages.

Risk assessment model for venous thromboembolism in hospitalized surgical and non-surgical patients in the 4th Hungarian Antithrombotic Guidelines entitled “Diminution and Treatment of Venous Thromboembolism”

2010 ◽  
Vol 151 (34) ◽  
pp. 1365-1374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marianna Dávid ◽  
Hajna Losonczy ◽  
Miklós Udvardy ◽  
Zoltán Boda ◽  
György Blaskó ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Surgical Patients ◽  
Risk Assessment Model

A kórházban kezelt sebészeti és belgyógyászati betegekben jelentős a vénásthromboembolia-rizikó. Profilaxis nélkül, a műtét típusától függően, a sebészeti beavatkozások kapcsán a betegek 15–60%-ában alakul ki mélyvénás trombózis vagy tüdőembólia, és az utóbbi ma is vezető kórházi halálok. Bár a vénás thromboemboliát leggyakrabban a közelmúltban végzett műtéttel vagy traumával hozzák kapcsolatba, a szimptómás thromboemboliás események 50–70%-a és a fatális tüdőembóliák 70–80%-a nem a sebészeti betegekben alakul ki. Nemzetközi és hazai felmérések alapján a nagy kockázattal rendelkező sebészeti betegek többsége megkapja a szükséges trombózisprofilaxist. Azonban profilaxis nélkül marad a rizikóval rendelkező belgyógyászati betegek jelentős része, a konszenzuson alapuló nemzetközi és hazai irányelvi ajánlások ellenére. A belgyógyászati betegek körében növelni kell a profilaxisban részesülők arányát és el kell érni, hogy trombózisrizikó esetén a betegek megkapják a hatásos megelőzést. A beteg trombóziskockázatának felmérése fontos eszköze a vénás thromboembolia által veszélyeztetett betegek felderítésének, megkönnyíti a döntést a profilaxis elrendeléséről és javítja az irányelvi ajánlások betartását. A trombózisveszély megállapításakor, ha nem ellenjavallt, profilaxist kell alkalmazni. „A thromboemboliák kockázatának csökkentése és kezelése” című, 4. magyar antithromboticus irányelv felhívja a figyelmet a vénástrombózis-rizikó felmérésének szükségességére, és elsőként tartalmazza a kórházban fekvő belgyógyászati és sebészeti betegek kockázati kérdőívét. Ismertetjük a kockázatbecslő kérdőíveket és áttekintjük a kérdőívekben szereplő rizikófaktorokra vonatkozó bizonyítékokon alapuló adatokat.

Signature Analysis: Statistical Models and Their Application to FA

1996 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.K. Lakshminarayan ◽  
S. Pabbisetty ◽  
O. Adams ◽  
F. Pires ◽  
M. Thomas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Failure Analysis ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Essential Elements ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Signature Analysis ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Sample Sizes ◽  
Reliability Engineering ◽  
Semiconductor Chips

Abstract This paper deals with the basic concepts of Signature Analysis and the application of statistical models for its implementation. It develops a scheme for computing sample sizes when the failures are random. It also introduces statistical models that comprehend correlations among failures that fail due to the same failure mechanism. The idea of correlation is important because semiconductor chips are processed in batches. Also any risk assessment model should comprehend correlations over time. The statistical models developed will provide the required sample sizes for the Failure Analysis lab to state "We are A% confident that B% of future parts will fail due to the same signature." The paper provides tables and graphs for the evaluation of such a risk assessment. The implementation of Signature Analysis will achieve the dual objective of improved customer satisfaction and reduced cycle time. This paper will also highlight it's applicability as well as the essential elements that need to be in place for it to be effective. Different examples have been illustrated of how the concept is being used by Failure Analysis Operations (FA) and Customer Quality and Reliability Engineering groups.

A semi-quantitative risk assessment model for the outbreak of grass carp hemorrhage

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 521-527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song YANG ◽  
Shuqin WU ◽  
Ningqiu LI ◽  
Cunbin SHI ◽  
Guocheng DENG ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Grass Carp ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment Model
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